(U) Secretary Rice's October 9, 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 111775 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2028 TAGS: MARR PREL PINS PGOV NATO CVIS LG LH EN AF, RS, GG, UP, BO, SW SUBJECT: (U) Secretary Rice's October 9, 2008 conversation with Latvian Foreign Minister Maris Riekstins. ¶1. (U) Classified by: Dan Smith, Deputy Executive Secretary, S/ES, Department of State. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶2. (U) October 9, 2008, 9:00 - 9:30, Washington, D.C. ¶3. (U) Participants: U.S. The Secretary Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary Robert Gilchrist, EUR Sean McCormack, PA Carol Beilman Werner (EUR/NB Notetaker) Latvia Foreign Minister Maris Riekstins Ambassador Andrejs Pildegovics MFA Political Director Peteris Ustubs FM's Chief of Staff Ilze Milta ¶4. (C) SUMMARY. The Secretary met with Latvian Foreign Minister Maris Riekstins on October 9, 2008 at the Department of State. Much of the meeting focused on relations with Russia. Riekstins noted Moscow's aggressive new foreign policy, which apparently included using force to interfere in neighboring countries. Secretary Rice said that Russia's invasion of Georgia had been followed by a series of political and economic failures for Moscow. She and Riekstins agreed that the West needed to be united in its response to Moscow's actions and discussed what that response should be. Riekstins informed the Secretary that he was going to maintain long-held plans to visit Moscow in two weeks, noting that the visit suited Russia's desire to demonstrate that business with the West was developing "as usual." Riekstins promised that Latvia would continue to help Georgia integrate into the West, but he did not feel that the problems in South Ossetia and Abkhazia would soon be solved. The Secretary replied that we should not rush into a solution since those regions were still occupied by Russian forces; however, she was pleased with the generous international financial support for Georgia and hoped that foreign investment would soon return. The Secretary and Riekstins discussed recent actions taken by the Belarusian government to reach out to the West and Latvia's approaching membership in the Visa Waiver Program. The meeting concluded with Riekstins describing the contributions that Latvia was making to Afghanistan. END SUMMARY. -------------- Russia -------------- ¶5. (C) Riekstins said that the invasion of Georgia demonstrated Russia's readiness to use force to interfere in neighboring countries. He asked Secretary Rice what she thought of Russia's apparent desire to challenge the current international system, pointing out that the previous day Medvedev had publicly announced that Russia needed to create a new world order to replace the one resulting from failed U.S. policies. The Secretary observed that recent Russian actions had met with failure: Georgian President Saakashvili is still in power, Russian forces in Georgia have led to Russia's isolation from the West, the Russian stock market is crashing, and oil prices are falling. ¶6. (C) The Secretary thought that we should now step back for a while and ensure that Europe is united on its response to Russia. As a member of the EU and NATO, Latvia should work for energy independence, help Georgia and Ukraine obtain Membership Action Plans (MAPs) at the December NATO Ministerial, and prevent Russia from benefiting from its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. She also wanted Russia to be made aware of the unacceptability of using force to draw its own lines in Europe and to "protect its citizens" residing in other countries. Overall, such actions have served to increase the West's mistrust of Russia. ¶7. (C) Riekstins agreed that unity in the Transatlantic STATE 00111775 002 OF 003 SUBJECT: (U) Secretary Rice's October 9, 2008 conversation with Latvian Foreign Minister Mar alliance was essential to prevent Russia from succeeding with its policy of "divide and conquer." He added that Russia's recent actions had caused nervousness in countries of the former Soviet Union which are not members of NATO or the EU and have significant ethnic Russian minorities, such as Ukraine and the Central Asian countries. He stressed that international law, not Russian force, should be used to protect Russian "compatriots," not Russian force. ¶8. (C) With respect to the Baltic States, Riekstins said there was no feeling of hysteria about Russia and that they were willing to focus discussions on contingency planning in Brussels, but he pointed out that Russian forces had been carrying out exercises only 100 kilometers outside of Baltic territory. He then mentioned recent and upcoming activities that Latvia found reassuring: consultations between our Department of Defense and the Latvian Ministry of Defense on a possible NATO Joint Air Tactical Control (JTAC) range in Latvia, Embassy Riga's efforts to bring high-level visitors to Latvia from DOD and State, and the possibility of NATO exercises in the region. As the Secretary suggested, Latvia was working on diversifying its sources of energy. It was looking into an electrical cable from Sweden and was waiting for the Department of Energy (DOE) to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Latvia on the use of renewable energy. The Secretary said that we would follow up on the DOE MOU. ¶9. (C) Riekstins informed the Secretary that he would be visiting Russia in two weeks. He explained that the meeting had been arranged before the invasion of Georgia, but that he supposed the Russians did not want to cancel it in order to show that the invasion had not affected "business as usual." The Secretary concurred, saying that the Russians wanted to show they were not isolated. However, we had to show them that they could not do what they did in Georgia and maintain good relations with the West. She pointed out that the Russian Federation is different from the USSR, which did not care what the West thought of it; less than 1% of the USSR's GDP came from trade with the West. She wondered what the reaction of the Russian public would be if their access to Western consumer goods was cut off. She said that, in contrast with Putin, Medvedev realized that domestic discontent could be a problem for the government. The Secretary felt that Medvedev looked like he had little authority. ¶10. (C) The Secretary said that during a meeting on Iran, she told Lavrov that Russia had failed in Georgia. Riekstins said that he had heard that Lavrov did not support the recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Secretary said that the Russian MFA had been against it, with reason, as it had hurt Russia's relations with China and stirred up violence in potential separatist regions of Russia. ¶11. (C) The Secretary told Riekstins she had also asked Lavrov why Russian bombers were in Venezuela. She told him that arms sales to Venezuela would not threaten the United States, but they would threaten Venezuela's neighbors like Colombia, Brazil, Panama, and Mexico. She said the United States would continue to cooperate with Moscow on issues related to the Middle East, Iran, and North Korea. -------------- Georgia -------------- ¶12. (C) Riekstins said that Latvia would continue to help Georgia integrate into the West. At the upcoming Geneva Conference, he hoped that participants would focus on political as well as financial support for Georgia. The Secretary said that Georgia had been receiving enough financial aid to be doing quite well with its budget. In fact, she recently told Lavrov that Russia had succeeded in making Georgia the darling of the international community. Georgia now needed strong signals of political support so that foreign investors would return. ¶13. (C) Riekstins mentioned that the situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia would be debated at the GAERC on October 13, but that he did not expect a solution to be found in the short run. The Secretary said that we should not rush into a solution since Russian forces were still on the ground. We had to be certain that STATE 00111775 003 OF 003 SUBJECT: (U) Secretary Rice's October 9, 2008 conversation with Latvian Foreign Minister Mar there would be no Russian military installations or reinforcement of forces in South Ossetia or Abkhazia. Likewise, Gazprom should not drill there without Georgia's approval. If that were to occur, Gazprom would have to choose between doing business in the U.S. and doing business in South Ossetia. Noting that the value of Gazprom's shares had recently decreased, the Secretary said that Lavrov had told her that Russia would be careful of where it did business. ¶14. (C) The Secretary emphasized that it was important to do nothing that would change the line between South Ossetia and Georgia; no arrangement should be made with OSCE monitors that could affect the border. She had spoken to British Foreign Minister Miliband and other EU officials about slowing down on South Ossetia. She added that we should make it clear that in areas under its control, Russia, not the OSCE, was responsible for the safety of Georgian citizens. -------------- -------------- Membership Actions Plans (MAPs) for Georgia and Ukraine -------------- -------------- ¶15. (C) Riekstins underlined that we had to be careful to avoid a public clash of views among NATO members on MAPs for Georgia and Ukraine, closely consulting with both countries before the Ministerial. The Secretary agreed, saying that even with new elections in Ukraine it was unlikely there would be a change in government, as the President and the Prime Minister each had their own constituencies. -------------- Belarus -------------- ¶16. (C) Riekstins brought up the situation in Belarus, saying that we had witnessed recent improvements in human rights. Lukashenko, although not a "father of democracy", had released political prisoners and allowed OSCE monitors during the last parliamentary elections. He was in a tricky situation with regard to Russia, and sought to avoid being dragged into the Georgia crisis. The Secretary agreed and said that we were engaging the Belarusians in discussions and that Deputy Assistant Secretary Merkel had visited Belarus twice in the past few months. She felt there had been progress and realized that Lukashenko was reaching out to the West. We are hoping for a loosening of the restrictions so that the opposition can compete in future elections. -------------- Visa Waiver Program (VWP) -------------- ¶17. (C) Riekstins said that it looked like Latvia would join the VWP next month. The Secretary said she was unsure of the exact date, but agreed that Latvia would soon be part of the program, adding that President Bush was pleased. She asked Riekstins not to tell the press what she had said about the VWP beyond the fact that progress was being made toward including Latvia soon. Riekstins agreed to her request. -------------- Afghanistan -------------- ¶18. (C) The Secretary mentioned that Afghanistan had many needs that she hoped Latvia could assist in meeting. Riekstins replied that Latvia was sending several dozen troops to supplement the 100 already in Afghanistan. He then mentioned that a group of Afghan businesswomen had visited Latvia under the auspices of a Latvian NGO and that this NGO was going to cooperate in building a business training center for women in Afghanistan. RICE