DAS KROL'S CONVERSATION WITH MIROSLAW JENCA OF THE UN CENTER FOR PREVENTATIVE DIPLOMACY

UNCLAS STATE 111267 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL ENRG KSUM EPETUN UN TX UZ TI KZ KG SUBJECT: DAS KROL'S CONVERSATION WITH MIROSLAW JENCA OF THE UN CENTER FOR PREVENTATIVE DIPLOMACY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In an October 15 telephone conversation with SCA DAS George Krol, Miroslaw Jenca, Director of the UN Center for Preventative Diplomacy in Ashgabat, noted the leaders of the five Central Asian states who met separately during the recent CIS summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan had managed to resolve their eve of winter, water and energy disputes quickly and pragmatically. Jenca also discussed prospects for Turkmenistan's UN resolution on energy reliability (formerly energy security),and the priorities of the UN Center for Preventative Diplomacy. End Summary ¶2. (SBU) On October 15 the Director of the UN Center for Preventative Diplomacy Ambassador Miroslaw Jenca called SCA DAS Krol from Ashgabat. He said he was calling on the eve of a meeting of Central Asian Deputy Foreign ministers at the Center at which they would approve the priorities for the Center for the next three years of operations. He wanted inform Krol of those priorities but also to pass on his reflections from the recently concluded CIS Summit meeting in Bishkek where he had been an observer. ¶3. (SBU) Leaders Find Mutual Agreement on Sticky Water and Energy Issues Jenca had been invited to attend a meeting of the five Central Asian presidents that took place October 10 on the margins of the summit. Jenca was greatly impressed that the five Central Asian leaders had in the course of 45 minutes pragmatically and efficiently resolved the pre-winter disputes on water and energy that had been growing increasingly bitter and intractable. Even Karimov and Bakiyev-spoke pragmatically on resolving their energy and water differences. Jenca said they discussed without emotion what was needed, how much was needed, and what was to be done. The upstream leaders, Rahmon and Bakiyev agreed to the amount of water to release to their downstream neighbors whose leaders, Karimov, Nazarbayev and Berdimuhamedov agreed to supply energy to their upstream colleagues to meet their winter needs. Jenca observed the leaders left the meeting satisfied that they had avoided the energy and water crises facing them this winter. ¶4. (SBU) Jenca emphasized the agreements only covered this year, but he thought the atmosphere at the meeting might indicate the first steps toward developing a mechanism to resolve the sticky water and energy problems more long term. It was clear to Jenca these problems could only be resolved at the presidential level. Earlier efforts to address them at the ministerial level, such as the September 18 French sponsored Paris EU-Central Asia ministerial had only ended in acrimony. Jenca had been a witness there as well and recalled the nasty exchange between the Uzbek and Kyrgyz foreign ministers over water and the hard time the French had negotiating a mention of water in the final communiqu with the obdurate Uzbeks. Jenca noted the agreements reached in Bishkek would be finalized and signed by all parties in two weeks. ¶5. (SBU) Cooperation on Water and Energy Jenca claimed all five leaders had agreed in principle on the substance of the 1992 water convention that the Kyrgyz and Tajiks refuse to sign. The leaders of the downstream countries-Karimov, Nazarbayev, and Berdimuhammedov-noted they understood the domestic political reasons preventing their upstream colleagues-Rahmon and Bakiyev-from signing or publicly endorsing the convention, which recognizes the region's contentious rivers as transnational. Rahmon and Bakiyev on the other hand agreed that the rivers are de facto transnational and should be treated as such. Jenca again expressed hope this mutual understanding could lend itself to developing a more long-term mechanism for managing the region's water and energy issues before they become too acute every winter. ¶6. (SBU) Turkmenistan's UN Resolution on Energy Reliability Jenca noted the leaders discussed the new Turkmen gas reserves, which gave Turkmen president Berdimuhammedov the opportunity to push for Turkmenistan's draft UN Resolution on energy reliability (Jenca noted that the Turkmen had changed the terminology from "security" to "reliability.") The other Central Asian leaders gave the Resolution a positive reception, but did not commit themselves to co-sponsoring the Resolution except for Kazakhstan which has become a co-sponsor of the resolution. Jenca believed middle level officials in other Central Asian foreign ministries still had questions about the resolution. Answering Jenca's question about the U.S. position, DAS Krol mentioned the Turkmen had approached the U.S. for support and co-sponsorship of their resolution but our experts were still examining it. Jenca thought the Turkmen were most interested in this resolution as it would endorse Turkmenistan hosting an international conference on energy reliability which would flesh out the issue. ¶7. (SBU) Priorities for the Center of Preventative Diplomacy Finally, Jenca noted Deputy Foreign Ministers of the five Central Asian states would meet October 16 in Ashgabat to the endorse the Center's priorities for the next three years. Jenca enumerated these as: 1) water/energy issues; 2) cross-border issues; 3) Afghanistan. On the latter, the priority would be to get Central Asian states involved in infrastructure projects that would support stability in Afghanistan and lead to greater economic development in the region as a whole. ¶8. (SBU) Russia Resurgent Jenca commented it was clear at both the CIS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summits in Bishkek and Dushanbe respectively (which he also attended) that Russia is a growing factor and player in Central Asia. Jenca noted Russian President Medvedev used his visits at both events to sign many deals with the host countries especially in the energy and extractive minerals sectors. Gazprom in particular is actively trying to achieve local market dominance on gas supplies and pricing. Jenca concluded that Russia clearly wants to dominate, wants to prevent instability in the region and is willing to pay for it. ¶9. (SBU) Comment We share Jenca's hope that the Central Asian leaders might find a way to resolve the region's sticky water and energy problems on a more long term basis and more pragmatically instead of bickering and waiting until the very last moment every winter. Perhaps they are coming to recognize climate change is affecting them all and forcing them to act more pro-actively, pragmatically and cooperatively to avoid a common disaster. We are also pleased the priorities of Jenca's Center very much accord with our own in the region, especially in developing greater cooperation with Afghanistan. End Comment. RICE