UNCLAS STATE 111267

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL ENRG KSUM EPETUN UN TX UZ TI KZ KG
SUBJECT: DAS KROL'S CONVERSATION WITH MIROSLAW JENCA OF
THE UN CENTER FOR PREVENTATIVE DIPLOMACY


1. (SBU) Summary: In an October 15 telephone conversation
with SCA DAS George Krol, Miroslaw Jenca, Director of the UN
Center for Preventative Diplomacy in Ashgabat, noted the
leaders of the five Central Asian states who met separately
during the recent CIS summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan had
managed to resolve their eve of winter, water and energy
disputes quickly and pragmatically. Jenca also discussed
prospects for Turkmenistan's UN resolution on energy
reliability (formerly energy security), and the priorities of
the UN Center for Preventative Diplomacy. End Summary


2. (SBU) On October 15 the Director of the UN Center for
Preventative Diplomacy Ambassador Miroslaw Jenca called SCA
DAS Krol from Ashgabat. He said he was calling on the eve of
a meeting of Central Asian Deputy Foreign ministers at the
Center at which they would approve the priorities for the
Center for the next three years of operations. He wanted
inform Krol of those priorities but also to pass on his
reflections from the recently concluded CIS Summit meeting in
Bishkek where he had been an observer.


3. (SBU) Leaders Find Mutual Agreement on Sticky Water and
Energy Issues

Jenca had been invited to attend a meeting of the five
Central Asian presidents that took place October 10 on the
margins of the summit. Jenca was greatly impressed that the
five Central Asian leaders had in the course of 45 minutes
pragmatically and efficiently resolved the pre-winter
disputes on water and energy that had been growing
increasingly bitter and intractable. Even Karimov and
Bakiyev-spoke pragmatically on resolving their energy and
water differences. Jenca said they discussed without emotion
what was needed, how much was needed, and what was to be
done. The upstream leaders, Rahmon and Bakiyev agreed to the
amount of water to release to their downstream neighbors
whose leaders, Karimov, Nazarbayev and Berdimuhamedov agreed
to supply energy to their upstream colleagues to meet their
winter needs. Jenca observed the leaders left the meeting
satisfied that they had avoided the energy and water crises

facing them this winter.


4. (SBU) Jenca emphasized the agreements only covered this
year, but he thought the atmosphere at the meeting might
indicate the first steps toward developing a mechanism to
resolve the sticky water and energy problems more long term.
It was clear to Jenca these problems could only be resolved
at the presidential level. Earlier efforts to address them
at the ministerial level, such as the September 18 French
sponsored Paris EU-Central Asia ministerial had only ended in
acrimony. Jenca had been a witness there as well and
recalled the nasty exchange between the Uzbek and Kyrgyz
foreign ministers over water and the hard time the French had
negotiating a mention of water in the final communiqu with
the obdurate Uzbeks. Jenca noted the agreements reached in
Bishkek would be finalized and signed by all parties in two
weeks.


5. (SBU) Cooperation on Water and Energy

Jenca claimed all five leaders had agreed in principle on the
substance of the 1992 water convention that the Kyrgyz and
Tajiks refuse to sign. The leaders of the downstream
countries-Karimov, Nazarbayev, and Berdimuhammedov-noted
they understood the domestic political reasons preventing
their upstream colleagues-Rahmon and Bakiyev-from signing or
publicly endorsing the convention, which recognizes the
region's contentious rivers as transnational. Rahmon and
Bakiyev on the other hand agreed that the rivers are de facto
transnational and should be treated as such. Jenca again
expressed hope this mutual understanding could lend itself to
developing a more long-term mechanism for managing the
region's water and energy issues before they become too acute
every winter.



6. (SBU) Turkmenistan's UN Resolution on Energy Reliability

Jenca noted the leaders discussed the new Turkmen gas
reserves, which gave Turkmen president Berdimuhammedov the
opportunity to push for Turkmenistan's draft UN Resolution on
energy reliability (Jenca noted that the Turkmen had changed
the terminology from "security" to "reliability.") The other
Central Asian leaders gave the Resolution a positive
reception, but did not commit themselves to co-sponsoring the
Resolution except for Kazakhstan which has become a
co-sponsor of the resolution. Jenca believed middle level
officials in other Central Asian foreign ministries still had
questions about the resolution. Answering Jenca's question
about the U.S. position, DAS Krol mentioned the Turkmen had
approached the U.S. for support and co-sponsorship of their
resolution but our experts were still examining it. Jenca
thought the Turkmen were most interested in this resolution
as it would endorse Turkmenistan hosting an international
conference on energy reliability which would flesh out the
issue.


7. (SBU) Priorities for the Center of Preventative Diplomacy

Finally, Jenca noted Deputy Foreign Ministers of the five
Central Asian states would meet October 16 in Ashgabat to the
endorse the Center's priorities for the next three years.
Jenca enumerated these as: 1) water/energy issues; 2)
cross-border issues; 3) Afghanistan. On the latter, the
priority would be to get Central Asian states involved in
infrastructure projects that would support stability in
Afghanistan and lead to greater economic development in the
region as a whole.


8. (SBU) Russia Resurgent

Jenca commented it was clear at both the CIS and Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) summits in Bishkek and
Dushanbe respectively (which he also attended) that Russia is
a growing factor and player in Central Asia. Jenca noted
Russian President Medvedev used his visits at both events to
sign many deals with the host countries especially in the
energy and extractive minerals sectors. Gazprom in
particular is actively trying to achieve local market
dominance on gas supplies and pricing. Jenca concluded that
Russia clearly wants to dominate, wants to prevent
instability in the region and is willing to pay for it.


9. (SBU) Comment

We share Jenca's hope that the Central Asian leaders might
find a way to resolve the region's sticky water and energy
problems on a more long term basis and more pragmatically
instead of bickering and waiting until the very last moment
every winter. Perhaps they are coming to recognize climate
change is affecting them all and forcing them to act more
pro-actively, pragmatically and cooperatively to avoid a
common disaster. We are also pleased the priorities of
Jenca's Center very much accord with our own in the region,
especially in developing greater cooperation with
Afghanistan. End Comment.
RICE