MGCD01: CHAD MONITORING GROUP SITUATION REPORT

UNCLAS STATE 010780 SIPDIS SENSITIVE - INFORM CONSULS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR PREL PINR AMGT CD SUBJECT: MGCD01: CHAD MONITORING GROUP SITUATION REPORT NO. 02 GOVERNMENT FORCES ENGAGE REBELS -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Chadian Army engaged rebel forces in more than one incident. Embassy N'Djamena notes skirmishes occurred approximately 50 miles outside the capital, while French estimates placed the incidents within 18 miles of the city. ¶2. (SBU) Embassy N'Djamena reports a military build-up to reinforce security at the Presidency. Paramilitary units were deployed throughout the city. ¶3. (SBU) Assistant Secretary Frazer spoke with senior French officials who are "cautiously optimistic" the Chadian government will retain control; they estimate President Deby has an 80 percent chance of success. N'DJAMENA RELATIVELY CALM -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Most schools remain closed, however shops and businesses were open for business during the day. ¶5. (U) Air France cancelled the February 1 flight AF86 from Paris to N'Djamena. ¶6. (SBU) The UN is preparing to evacuate non-essential personnel to Cameroon; the IMF suspended operations in N'Djamena, evacuating staff to Cameroon. ¶7. (SBU) Embassy N'Djamena plans to stand fast until the morning of February 2. Post remains in close contact with the French Embassy regarding its planned security posture. REGIONAL RESOURCES PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Embassies N'Djamena and Yaounde discussed potential evacuation plans to Cameroon. ¶9. (SBU) Embassy N'Djamena notes several options are available to evacuate Amcits, including commercial flights, French military airlift, and land evacuation to Cameroon. ¶10. (SBU) Embassy N'Djamena remains in contact with the estimated 486 Amcits in country. Minimize considered. RICE