MONTENEGRO-SERBIA PRESSURE POINTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 105083 NOFORN SIPDIS BELGRADE PASS PODGORICA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL MW KV SR SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO-SERBIA PRESSURE POINTS REF: A. PODGORICA 209 ¶B. PODGORICA 193 ¶C. 07 PODGORICA 312 ¶D. PODGORICA 069 Classified By: Jason Hyland EUR/SCE Office Director; reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (U) This is an Embassy Podgorica cable. ¶2. (C) Summary: Relations between Montenegro and Serbia, which had been normalizing after a cool period following Montenegro's referendum and independence in 2006, could be headed for rough waters in the next few months if Montenegro recognizes Kosovo in mid-October as it has indicated to us it will do. Serbia remains Montenegro's most important trade partner, with benefits for both countries. Measures Montenegro took this year in the tourism sector appear to have reduced the level of Serbian tourism in Montenegro, so further measures by Serbia to discourage travel might not significantly affect the economy. However, Serbia could create hardships for Montenegrins in border areas, for students and others such as those seeking health care in Serbia. Serbia also is pressing Montenegro to accept dual citizenship provisions (roughly 30 percent of Montenegro's population might be covered),but Podgorica will almost certainly resist. In any event, senior Government of Montenegro (GoM) officials assert that differences over Kosovo and dual citizenship will not greatly affect the long term relationship but in the short term, Serbian pressure has made a difficult decision even more difficult. The GoM may need some more shoring up if it is to stick to its plan of recognizing in the next few weeks. End Summary. -------------- SPECTER OF KOSOVO RECOGNITION -------------- ¶3. The prospect that Montenegro will recognize Kosovo's independence is now perhaps the biggest bone of contention between Belgrade and Podgorica. GoM officials have told us at the most senior levels that it plans to recognize Kosovo in mid-October, following the parliamentary debate on the topic beginning on October 3rd. GoM officials have also told us privately they do not expect Montenegro's relationship with Serbia to suffer from recognition. Nevertheless, they have looked for ways to delay official recognition, citing national security and balancing the interests of Montenegro's Serb and Albanian ethnic populations as reasons. Serbian leaders have strongly encouraged Montenegro to remain neutral, and Serbia's initiative to win support from the UNGA for an ICJ opinion on Kosovo's independence also a factor in the GoM's decision-making (REF B). Throughout the summer, Montenegro's pro-Serbian parties promised protests should the GoM recognize Kosovo (REF A). Meanwhile, all our GoM interlocutors have insisted that the government will not bow to pressure from Serbia and will make its decision based solely on Montenegro's national interest, including the goal of Euro-Atlantic integration. ¶4. (SBU) Some ruling Democratic Party of Socialist (DPS) party members reportedly have grumbled about consequences for the party in next fall's parliamentary election if it supports recognition. Others have argued that the issue will be long forgotten by then, particularly if Montenegro continues to make concrete progress towards Euro-Atlantic integration by gaining official EU candidate status or becoming a full member of the WTO (both of which are likely to occur within that timeframe). Even if the DPS were to lose its strong majority, there are a number of small parties who could conceivably join a DPS-led coalition, such as small centrist parties -- current coalition partner Social Democratic Party or potentially even the Socialist People's party -- as well as the small minority Croat, Bosniak, and Albanian parties, most of whom have told us they would support the GoM recognizing Kosovo. ¶5. (C) Opposition Serb parties, such as Andrija Mandic's Serbian People's Party (SNS),would certainly use a GoM recognition to criticize the government (REF A). It is unlikely, however, that any demonstrations would turn violent; during the February rallies against Kosovo's declaration of independence Mandic and other local Serb leaders preached restraint and the local police forces did an outstanding, professional job of securing the city (REF D). Mandic also undoubtedly would use the issue during the election season next fall, however, based on public opinion polling and anecdotal evidence, we assess that playing on residual feelings of Serb nationalism will, at most, resonate with voters who would already be voting for the SNS. Further, if Mandic's actions during the Presidential election last April are any indication, he will leave the most inflammatory rhetoric for lower level party officials and focus on issues that speak to a wider demographic such as improving living standards. -------------- DUAL CITIZENSHIP ISSUE UNRESOLVED -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The subject of dual citizenship between Serbia and Montenegro has yet to be resolved, their differences may be irreconcilable. Serbia's new amendment to its citizenship law, adopted in September 2007, grants the right of dual citizenship to Serbs living outside of Serbia (REF C). On the other hand, Montenegro's new citizenship law strictly limits dual citizenship and gives a grace period until October 2008 -- the one year anniversary of the adoption of the Montenegrin constitution -- to decide which citizenship to keep. The GoM has announced it will seek a "restrictive" approach on dual citizenship given that some 30 percent of residents consider themselves Serbs. Bilateral talks were put on hold during winter and spring but could start again this fall depending on the political climate. Both Montenegrin and Serbian leaders claim to be open to discussion but qualify that it depends on what the other side offers. The GoM is unlikely to bend in the bilateral talks, but we have heard that many are waiting for a bilateral agreement before opting for dual citizenship. -------------- ECONOMIC TIES IMPORTANT TO BOTH -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Serbia continues to be Montenegro's main economic partner, and the two countries' economies remain significantly intertwined. Serbia is Montenegro's most important trade partner, accounting for 29.3 percent of exports and 29.9 percent of imports last year. Unofficial data from Bar suggest that roughly 20 percent of the port's total exports originate in Serbia. Furthermore, according to Montenegro's Foreign Minister, Montenegro is Serbia's largest export market, which could dissuade Belgrade from measures which could jeopardize its markets here. ¶8. (SBU) Serbia ranks ninth among foreign investors in Montenegro and has invested 74 million euros in the past two years. The main Serbian investors are Telecom Serbia and Delta Holding. Most of Montenegro's imported electricity likewise comes from Serbia, almost 2,000 GWh. Though Belgrade has the ability to reduce or cut off Montenegro's power supply, doing so would violate the Southeast Europe Energy Community Treaty, to which both Serbia and Montenegro are signatories. It would very likely affect other countries in the region as well because the electricity grid is now widely interconnected. Such a move by Serbia would therefore be most unlikely. -------------- SERBIAN TOURISTS STAY AWAY THIS SUMMER -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The proximity, relative affordability and common language have made tourism an important link between Serbia and Montenegro. The greatest number of foreign visitors to Montenegro comes from Serbia, and official data shows that in 2007, Serbians comprised 41 percent of the total of overnight guests in Montenegro. Past statistics have shown that last year, Montenegro ranked as the number one tourist destination for Serbians while Montenegrins comprised the largest foreign group visiting Serbia. Official statistics for the 2008 summer tourism season are not yet available, but anecdotal reporting suggests that numbers of Serbian tourists were significantly lower this year than in recent years. Many point to two new initiatives by the GoM. The GoM implemented an "eco tax" (10 Euro per car) for foreigners entering the country during the tourist season. The GoM also banned food from being brought by car into the country during the summer season. While not officially acknowledged, many say that the second measure specifically targeted tourists from Serbia and Kosovo, who typically travel to Montenegro via automobile and often bringing their own supplies rather than purchasing them in Montenegro. The GoM has been unapologetic, claiming that this should encourage visitors to spend money in Montenegro and contribute to the economy. Many say that this combined with rising total costs at tourist destinations (lodging, food, activities) discouraged many Serbian visitors. -------------- NEW SERBIAN GOVERNMENT - FRESH START? -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In recent weeks, the most senior GoM leadership has told us that FM Jeremic in particular has been pressuring the GoM not to recognize Kosovo. Earlier, GoM officials and figures in the more civic-oriented opposition had been hopeful about Serbian President Boris Tadic and his government's actions since it formed in June. The Prime Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor, Mladen Dragasevic, characterized Serbian Foreign Minister Jeremic's visit to Montenegro in June -- Jeremic's first foreign trip after being confirmed in his second term as FM -- as a positive step in the bilateral relationship. The Serbian rhetoric on Kosovo, however, has dulled the glow of this earlier rapprochement. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) The issues of Kosovo recognition and dual citizenship remain possible flashpoints in the bilateral relationship. While the GoM leadership has been more optimistic about Serbia, citing Tadic's apparent pro-Western course, they have expressed concern about the potential for regional instability if Kosovo's status is not clearly resolved and its economy stagnates. On balance, despite the threats from Serbia, Podgorica appears to be on course to cast its lot with its Euro-Atlantic allies and recognize Kosovo. At the same time, Foreign Minister Rocen has several times asked us to encourage Serbia to stop pushing Montenegro on the Kosovo issue. In sum, we believe that it is a close call for Podgorica, and its determination may need some shoring up. RICE