A/S FRAZER'S SEPT 21 MEETING WITH TANZANIAN PRESIDENT KIKWETE

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 104948 E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV TZ SF ZI RW CG SUBJECT: A/S FRAZER'S SEPT 21 MEETING WITH TANZANIAN PRESIDENT KIKWETE Classified By: A/S Frazer for Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. AF Assistant Secretary Jendayi E. Frazer met with Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete on September 21 on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Kikwete called South African President Thabo Mbeki,s resignation unfortunate and said he expects the Vice President and some members of the cabinet to also resign. He said prominent ANC politician Tokyo Sexwale told him the ANC is planning to name Kgalema Motlanthe as the next President. On Zimbabwe, A/S Frazer expressed concern about the impasse over the allocation of ministerial postings in the coalition. Kikwete cautioned against new sanctions and said he would discuss the situation with Prime Minister Tsvangirai to see what could be done. On Sudan, A/S Frazer told Kikwete the USG would veto any Article 16 motion to delay the indictment of Sudan President Bashir if it were tabled now. Kikwete is meeting with Sudan Vice President Taha later this week and will discuss concerns about GOS efforts to hinder deployment of peacekeepers to Darfur. Lastly, on the Great Lakes, Kikwete is meeting both DRC President Kabila and Rwanda President Kagame this week and will discuss USG concerns about a way forward to fight rebel groups in Eastern Congo (NOTE: Kabila cancelled his trip to UNGA. END NOTE). END SUMMARY 2.(C) Resignation of Mbeki: Kikwete told A/S Frazer he learned of Mbeki,s recall as he was boarding the plane to New York and later talked to African National Congress (ANC) President Jacob Zuma, who told him Mbeki,s recall was the result of a decision by the National Executive Council of the ANC. He since learned Mbeki offered his resignation to the Parliament. Kikwete expects Vice President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka will also resign, since her husband was one of the prosecutors in the case against Zuma that led to Mbeki,s downfall. Kikwete also expects some members of the cabinet will also resign. Kikwete said that prominent businessman and ANC politico Tokyo Sexwale told him the ANC is planning to name Kgalema as President in the interim period until the next elections in February. Kikwete was not familiar with Kgalema but was told this person is from the ANC National Executive Council and is without a portfolio (NOTE: Kgalema Motlanthe was swon in as President September 25. END NOTE.) Kikwete had not yet spoken with Mbeki since news of his �A;recall surfaced and called the development &unfortunate8. 3.(C) Zimbabwe: A/S Frazer expressed concern about the recent deadlock over the creation of the new cabinet following the agreement to form a coalition government in Zimbabwe. Kikwete said he met with President Mugabe in Lusaka in early September and pressed him to consider giving the Interior Ministry to the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) (Note: Interior is likely a reference to Home Affairs. End Note). A/S Frazer noted the ZANU-PF Central Committee is rebelling against the peace agreement, which is in turn hindering efforts to find agreement on the allocation of cabinet seats. Tsvangirai needs and the USG supports giving MDC control of the Reserve Bank, the Department of Finance, and Home Affairs. Kikwete noted that the current impasse is one which &we should be able to overcome8 and offered to talk to Tsvangirai to &see what we can do.8 A/S Frazer described the USG as in a wait-and-see mode noting that the USG is looking for an economic team that can re-establish confidence in Zimbabwe. She noted the USG is in a position to either roll back existing sanctions against individuals and parastatals or move forward with other new sanctions depending on how things progress in Zimbabwe. Kikwete argued against new sanctions because of the poor shape of the Zimbabwe economy. Kikwete also stressed that despite the uniqueness of the current peace agreement (ironically referring to it as a &masterpiece8) it is vital to ending the suffering of the Zimbabwean population. 4.(C) Sudan: A/S Frazer told Kikwete the USG is not willing to support an Article XVI motion to defer the indictment of President Bashir, and would veto any such motion in the UN. The USG is hopeful the International Criminal Court will not take up the Bashir indictment until December, although the USG needs to see real improvements on the ground in Darfur before reconsidering its position. A/S Frazer outlined three key areas where Government of Sudan (GOS) cooperation is necessary: 1) demonstrating concrete efforts to facilitate the deployment of peacekeepers on the ground in Darfur; 2) actively reaching out to the rebels in Darfur to establish a peace deal; and 3) allowing humanitarian access, particularly in southern Darfur. A/S Frazer said the USG believes the GOS can make positive progress in these three areas and noted that when such actions are taken, the USG will reconsider its position on Article XVI. Kikwete said he discussed many of these issues with Bashir during a recent visit to Sudan. He said he warned Bashir there is a growing perception he is a stumbling block to the deployment of UN Peacekeepers. Bashir told him he is willing to accept Nepalese and Thai (i.e. non-African) peacekeepers and would welcome helicopters, &even if they were from the United States8. Kikwete stressed that it is most important to have UNAMID deploy now to establish peace and address the humanitarian crisis. He also expressed some frustration with the United Nations Department of Peace Keeping Operations (UNDPKO) noting that many African countries have troops ready to make sacrifices, but UNDPKO has established standards that preclude many countries from participating. A/S Frazer acknowledged the delays are partially caused by UNDPKO, but stressed that a significant part of the blame remains with the GOS, which is hindering efforts significantly. Kikwete said he would discuss these issues further with Sudan Vice President Ali Osman Taha on September 22, and is meeting Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on September 24, at which time he would raise his concerns about UNDPKO. 5.(C) Eastern Congo: A/S Frazer noted increasing concern over the continued existence of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and other rebel groups in Eastern Congo. Frosty relations between Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) President Joseph Kabila and Rwandan President Paul Kagame are hampering efforts at finding a regional way forward. She noted Kagame declined to participate in a meeting with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Kabila to discuss the situation in Eastern Congo, because he views the issue as one the DRC should handle on its own. Unfortunately, A/S Frazer noted, DRC forces are neither disciplined nor have the capacity to fight rebel groups as evidenced by their defeat by Laruant Nkunda,s National Congress for the Defense of the People forces earlier this year. Given the lack of will on the part of the Government of Rwanda (GOR) and capacity on the part of DRC, there is no clear strategy for moving forward. A/S Frazer argued that Kabila needs outside assistance to address the threat of Nkunda,s and other rebel groups and urged Kikwete to discuss these concerns and work with both leaders to find a solution. Kikwete said he plans to meet with Kabila and Kagame this week and will discuss these issues further with them. RICE