BULGARIAN FM: GEORGIA CRISIS STRENGTHENS CASE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 000592 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV RU SR BU GG SUBJECT: BULGARIAN FM: GEORGIA CRISIS STRENGTHENS CASE FOR OFFERING MAP IN DECEMBER Classified By: Ambassador Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: FM Kalfin told Ambassador Russia is using the Georgia crisis to create zones of influence throughout the former Soviet republics. This makes it all the more important that both Georgia and Ukraine be offered MAP at the NATO Ministerial in December. He urged continued U.S. involvement in Kosovo and noted the importance of increasing Serbian cooperation with the West. Describing bilateral relations as "excellent," Kalfin thanked the Ambassador for U.S. military cooperation, investments, and assistance in fighting corruption. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On September 2 Ambassador made an introductory call on Kalfin. He described bilateral relations as "excellent," and said Bulgaria was eager to further develop economic and military ties. He expressed thanks for U.S. military support for Bulgarian deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan, noting that troop strength in Afghanistan had now increased to over ¶500. ¶3. (C) Regarding the Balkans, Kalfin said work on Kosovo is far from completed and urged continued U.S. involvement. Serbia's new government is good but faces many challenge; it is important to increase Serbian cooperation with the West. Serbia's idea of taking the Kosovo issue to the International Court of Justice would create a "lose-lose" situation. ¶4. (C) On Georgia, Kalfin said the Russian invasion was not about the two provinces but creating zones of influence in the former Soviet space. The immediate Russian aim is to replace the government in Tbilisi with an anti-NATO government. The West should support the Georgian government economically and publicly and offer MAP to Georgia and Ukraine in December to "show the Russians their plan isn't working." The EU should take the lead on Georgia, as it is a matter of European security. The Ambassador applauded EU efforts, which underscore this is not a U.S.-Russia conflict. ¶5. (C) When Sarkozy meets the Russians on September 8, Kalfin said, they will insist they are adhering to the six point agreement. It will be hard to get them to leave their buffer zone; at best, they might agree to no side having forces there. Russian recognition of the two provinces will lead to a situation like northern Cyprus. If the Russians pushed, they might get a few other countries to recognize, but it would not change anything. They also might try to unite the two Ossetias inside the Russian Federation. Kalfin said he is worried about "some of the large countries of Europe" who might accept the Russian position. On assistance, Kalfin said Bulgaria is committed for the long term and noted Burgas is the closest port to Georgia with good rail and air connections. ¶6. (C) The Ambassador raised PM Stanishev's upcoming visit to Boston to meet with potential investors and suggested that the government take action on the main unresolved investment disputes, and thus enhance the attractiveness of the Bulgarian investment climate. ¶7. (C) Kalfin thanked the Ambassador for U.S. assistance in setting up DANS, for help in fighting corruption and organized crime and asked for continued support. He asserted there is political will at the top levels of government to fight corruption though there was "some resistance in the judiciary, but they are moving now." The Ambassador asked Kalfin if he thought the EU fund suspensions could be reversed. He said he is hopeful, saying that EC officials had been assessing positively the reforms and other changes that were being made in the implementing agencies and in PHARE. McEldowney