BULGARIA'S KOSOVO BALANCING ACT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000114 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNMIK YI EU BU SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S KOSOVO BALANCING ACT Classified By: Ambassador Beyrle for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: MFA Political Director Poriazov told us Bulgarian recognition of Kosovo would not happen for at least several weeks. The Kosovars first had to incorporate the Ahtisaari Plan into their constitution, then the Council of Ministers would start the two-week process on recognition. In the meantime Bulgaria will monitor the Kosovo government's behavior on the ground. Taking these steps and the time it takes to do so, Poriazov said, will make it easier for the government to justify recognition with both its population and the Serbs. Poriazov asked for U.S. support for Bulgaria's participation in the new International Steering Group to monitor Kosovo's adherence to the Ahtisaari Plan. Sofia hopes to bring Serbs and Kosovars together at the Stability Pact meeting it is hosting on February 27 but fears the Serbs will not cooperate. In a separate meeting, Ambassador Beyrle told Prime Minister Stanishev Serbia needed to hear from its friend and neighbor Bulgaria that violence on the border should be brought under control. End Summary. ¶2. (C) MFA Political Director Poriazov told us on February 20 that Bulgaria would not recognize Kosovo until it incorporates key elements of the Ahtisaari Plan into its constitution. The process is underway in Kosovo's parliament and should be complete quickly. Then the MFA will submit its recognition proposal to the Council of Ministers, which will have a maximum of two weeks to approve. In the meantime, Bulgaria will also monitor the actions of Kosovo authorities on the ground; their behavior has been quite responsible and he hoped it would continue. ¶3. (C) Poriazov explained that the Ahtisaari legislation and on the ground monitoring were necessary for internal purposes. He repeated that it was important to take this time for public opinion to get used to the new reality and also to diminish nervousness in Belgrade. Poriazov added that the Serbs had strongly asked Bulgaria not to be among the first to recognize, which he interpreted to mean not within the first few weeks. He went on to say that if the situation deteriorates Bulgaria would seek further discussions with our European and American partners. Serbs and Kosovars at Stability Pact -------------- ¶4. (C) Under any circumstances, Poriazov continued, Sofia would not recognize Kosovo before the Stability Pact meeting it is hosting on February 27, where it hopes to get Serbs and Kosovars to sit at the same table. Pristina has already accepted the invitation, sent before the declaration of independence, to attend as part of UNMIK. The Serbs have not yet responded. Poriazov expressed fear that Serbia might try to veto Pristina's participation or boycott. Parliamentary Debate -------------- ¶5. (C) Poriazov said some Bulgarian Socialist Party MPs wanted to debate recognition in parliament starting next week. The MFA preferred to avoid a public debate but the government could not refuse the deputies. On the other hand, Poriazov said, the center-right opposition supports recognition and the debate might actually reassure the public and make it easier for the government to recognize. He reaffirmed that the government, not the parliament, has the authority to make the decision on recognition. Membership in International Steering Group -------------- ¶6. (C) Poriazov asked for U.S. support for Bulgaria's membership on the new International Steering Group to monitor Kovoso's compliance with the Ahtisaari plan. Bulgaria had already consulted with the UK, France, Germany and Italy and hoped to be invited to join. He emphasized that it would be good to have a neighboring state on the Steering Group. PM Stanishev -------------- ¶7. (C) In a separate meeting on February 20 PM Stanishev told the Ambassador that recognition was tied to the Kosovar Albanians implementing the Ahtisaari plan and repeated that Bulgaria stood to lose the most from instability. The Ambassador noted that all of the violence until now had been Serb instigated and that the Serbs needed to hear from their friend and neighbor the expectation that they would rein this in. Stanishev asked the Ambassador for his view on the position Bulgaria had SOFIA 00000114 002 OF 002 adopted; Beyrle said it was obviously an effort to stay carefully balanced. The important thing was that Bulgaria had said it will recognize Kosovo, and it needed to act on those words. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The GOB is finding ways to buy time -- Kosovo's incorporating Ahtisaari into its constitution and its own Council of Ministers process before it grants full recognition of Kosovo. The government is balancing its fear of negative Serbian and possibly local popular reaction with its desire to be in line with the American and majority EU position. Opposition criticism is growing: former PM Philip Dimitrov accused the Socialist-led government of fearing Russia,s reaction more than Serbia,s -- a critique that stings. The Government argues that with the passing of a few weeks, and recognition from more European countries, it will be easier to explain its decision to its public and to the Serbs. In the interim, Bulgaria runs the risk of being lumped with the EU-rejectionists as the "nuances" of its position are lost in translation. End Comment. Beyrle Beyrle