100 DAYS INTO THE SECOND VMRO GOVERNMENT: A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000710

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL MK
SUBJECT: 100 DAYS INTO THE SECOND VMRO GOVERNMENT: A
CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

REF: A. SKOPJE 496

B. SKOPJE 675

C. SKOPJE 607

D. SKOPJE 696

Classified By: Amb. Reeker for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) Despite a nation-wide ad campaign touting 100 separate
accomplishments in its first 100 days, PM Gruevski's VMRO-led
government is failing to confront effectively the big issues:
the name dispute with Greece; meeting the EU benchmarks; and
improving political dialogue, rule of law, and interethnic
relations. Even the economy, always stated as VMRO's chief
concern, faces harder times, and the GoM must share some
responsibility for this. As we enter yet another campaign
season (local and presidential elections March 29),we will
continue our efforts -- along with our international partners
-- to focus the GoM on running far superior elections than
those marred by the violence and irregularities in June. End
summary.

First 100 Days: Your Government Hard At Work
--------------


2. (SBU) On Nov. 6, the VMRO-led government of PM Nikola
Gruevski ran full-page color advertisements in the newspapers
touting the achievements of its first 100 days. The 100
items on the list are a technocrat's dream: procurement of
20,000 public trash cans and 5,000 dumpsters, computerization
and digitalization of the library system, free bus service
for high school students, passage of a law on tourism.
Notably missing from the list is anything the government did
to the benefit of the e-Albanian community: passage of a
language law (ref a),recognition of Kosovo (though
nearly-complete demarcation is listed),or creation of new
civil service slots to promote equitable representation under
the Ohrid Framework Agreement.


3. (SBU) Other items of interest include the movement of
Macedonia from Tier Two to Tier One in the U.S. State
Department's 2007 TIP report, establishment of a government
Ministry for Information Technology, a 16% increase in
industrial output, 10% public sector salary increases,
streamlining of business regulations, major arrests in
cigarette and narcotics smuggling, and voting rights for
diaspora Macedonians.

But, What About the EU....
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4. (C) The ad also cites "significant progress" made in
fulfilling the eight EU benchmarks, despite the Commission's
negative Nov. 5 report on Macedonia's progress. EU officials
here comment disdainfully on the GoM's blithe assertion that
Macedonia has achieved "90%" of the benchmarks, noting
backsliding in political dialogue and rule of law (to be
reported septel) and the problematic parliamentary elections
in June. EUSR Fouere told visiting EUR/SCE Director Hyland
on Nov. 11 that "people in Brussels just roll their eyes"
when discussing the country. To be fair, the report does
cite some progress, but the tone is definitely negative.

...Interethnic Relations....
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5. (C) Contacts, primarily but not exclusively e-Albanians,
tell us they are increasingly concerned about the state of
interethnic relations. This is driven in part by the
government's handling of the four cases returned to
Macedonian jurisdiction earlier this year by the ICTY (the
four cases all accuse e-Albanians of war crimes committed
during the 2001 conflict--ref c). But others point to a
general tone of anti-Albanianism among the VMRO leadership.
MPs from all three e-Albanian parties cite little to no
dialogue -- even small talk -- with their VMRO colleagues,
and nary a word in public appearances about VMRO's coalition
partner. That said, DUI leader Ali Ahmeti has consistently
expressed general satisfaction with his working relationship
with Gruevski, though others in DUI are less pleased. To his
credit, however, Gruevski did speak --including a couple of
sentences in Albanian -- at Nov. 22 celebrations in Skopje of
the 100th anniversary of the Albanian alphabet (septel),a
major event in which his counterparts from Albania and Kosovo
also participated.

...And the Name....

SKOPJE 00000710 002 OF 002


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6. (SBU) The government ad only mentions the name issue in
the context of the governments of India and Chile recognizing
Macedonia under its constitutional name. It does not mention
the worsening dynamic between PM Gruevski and President
Crvenkovski as they dueled over the proposals from UN
Mediator Nimetz, culminating in Crvenkovski's dismissal of
name negotiator Nikola Dimitrov on Nov. 3. This failure of
"cohabitation" was further reinforced by Gruevski's decision
to file legal proceedings against Greece in the International
Court of Justice on Nov. 17: Crvenkovski learned of it the
same day (ref d). Gruevski has never recognized
Crvenkovski's legitimacy -- alleging ballot-stuffing in the
2004 presidential elections -- and calls him "Mr.
Crvenkovski" as opposed to "Mr. President." Their failed
relationship (for which both sides deserve blame) is a prime
example of the general failure of political dialogue here.


7. (C) The government's ad campaign highlights two notable
features of the Gruevski government. First, numerous
contacts tell us that the government is by far the biggest
advertiser in print and broadcast media. These contacts also
tell us that the GoM uses ad revenue -- and its potential
loss -- to influence editorial policy. Newspapers here
appear to have at least two to three half- or full-page ads
run by the GoM or its agencies every day.


8. (C) Second, the ad reflects VMRO as it wants to see
itself: technocrats focused primarily on the economy. This
was very much in evidence at a Nov. 12 dinner for EUR/SCE
Director Hyland, when two young VMRO MPs opined that
interethnic relations were essentially settled and that they
are focused on education and constituent service. The latter
two items are important, but their assertions belie what
actually seems to be going on: focusing solely on Greece as
the root of all of Macedonia's woe -- while mishandling the
name issue -- as NATO and EU membership seem to slip even
further away, the struggle between Crvenkovski and Gruevski,
machinations over the handling of the cases returned to
Macedonia by the ICTY, continuing efforts to marginalize the
opposition. Indeed, Macedonia is and remains thoroughly
politicized, and the impact reaches far into hiring practices
in all areas of the civil service, the country's largest
employer.

...And the Economy?
--------------


9. (C) The PM is worried about the economy as he watches the
world slowdown emerge (ref b),but at the same time he and
his inner circle appear unable to grasp real opportunities
that will actually help. In October, for example, the GoM
mishandled a potentially lucrative plan to build two Hilton
Hotels in Skopje. Government ministers were also unwilling
to work around an Oct. 22 VMRO meeting to prepare for the
March elections to take a few minutes to meet Habitat for
Humanity's International Board, which includes senior
business leaders such as the President of Delta Airlines. We
continue to receive letters from Macedonian businesses
complaining of ill treatment from the government. Both
foreign and domestic investors, who have enthusiastically
welcomed GOM efforts to streamline regulations and legislate
reforms, have lamented their incomplete implementation.


10. (C) We anticipate no significant improvement in the
situation. Macedonia is about to enter campaign mode again,
with the first round of presidential and municipal polls set
for March 29. We will work in conjunction with others in the
international community (including the EU and OSCE) to focus
the GoM on running fair, clean, and non-violent elections. A
repeat of the June 1 elections could do irreparable damage to
Macedonia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
REEKER