AMBASSADOR MEETS MACEDONIAN LEADERSHIP AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000601

SIPDIS

BELGRADE ALSO PLEASE PASS PODGORICA
STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KAWC ENRG MK GR KV SR MW RS
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS MACEDONIAN LEADERSHIP AS
POLITICAL TENSIONS RISE

REF: SKOPJE 592

Classified By: Ambassador Reeker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) In their first official meeting, PM Gruevski told the
Ambassador Sept. 29 that NATO and EU membership remain the GoM's top
strategic priorities, adding that despite their political differences
he and President Crvenkovski have a similar strategic view of the
name issue with Greece. Gruevski said the four cases recently
returned to Macedonia from the ICTY present him with significant
challenges, but so far he has managed to handle the crisis with his
ethnic Albanian coalition partner, DUI, and does not seek
international assistance with these cases. Gruevski also briefed on
his proposal to amend the constitution to remove the 50% threshold in
the second round of presidential elections. He confirmed the GoM's
plans to recognize Kosovo by mid-October, though the UNGA vote on
referring Kosovo's independence to the ICJ could push the timing a
bit earlier. Ambassador emphasized the need to proceed transparently
and fairly with the returned ICTY cases, and that recognition of
Kosovo would be another important blow against irredentism in the
region. The two also touched on Macedonia's energy situation and
other missions' interest in new embassy projects in Skopje. End
summary.

A Way Forward on Name Talks?
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2. (C) On Sept. 29, Ambassador presented credentials to President
Crvenkovski, held meetings with PM Gruevski and FonMin Milososki, and
spoke by phone with Ali Ahmeti, leader of the largest e-Albanian
party, DUI. The meetings with Crvenkovski and Milososki were largely
protocolary. DCM and P/E Chief accompanied Ambassador to his meeting
with the PM, joined by Gruevski's Chief of Staff, Martin Protoger.
PM Gruevski assured the Ambassador that he and Crvenkovski are
reasonably close in their positions on the name negotiations with
Greece, asserting that their main difference is on what public stance
to present on this issue. He criticized Crvenkovski for being too
willing to reveal Macedonia's bottom line to the press. Gruevski
said he is willing to tell us and UN negotiator Nimetz what his
bottom line is: preservation of Macedonia's people and language as
"Macedonian," similar scope of use to what is now used for FYROM
(i.e., in international fora, not bilaterally),and a geographic
modifier to the name itself only in "brackets" (i.e., parentheses).
(He also made a strong plea that the U.S. not change its recognition
of Macedonia under its constitutional name.) Should these views be
revealed in public, he asserted, Greece will simply pocket these as
concessions and use this position as a new starting point.
(Subsequent to our meeting, Gruevski and Crvenkovski held dueling
press conferences, accusing each other of failing on this issue. The
GoM's name negotiator, Nikola Dimitrov (protect),told us that there
is no consensus between Crvenkovski and Gruevski on how to proceed
with these talks--more septel.)


3. (SBU) Gruevski emphasized that Macedonia's top strategic
priorities remain NATO and EU membership. He understood that the
European Commission was not likely to recommend offering a date for
opening formal membership negotiations to Macedonia, and would likely
cite the conduct of June elections and shortcomings in administration
and political dialogue as the reasons. However, he added, "the real
issue is Greece."

Returned ICTY Cases: A Major Challenge
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4. (C) Gruevski reported that the four war crimes files recently
returned from the ICTY likely present him with the greatest challenge
in relations with his coalition partner, DUI, that he will face in
his mandate. He reported that the Chief Prosecutor (CP) has
confirmed that the 2002 amnesty law does not apply to these cases,
and that ICTY Prosecutor Brammertz had also told the CP this. Yet
Gruevski understood the serious political risks these cases present
to DUI and, by extension, to his coalition. He believed that he and
DUI had reached agreement on how to proceed in the near term (i.e.,
October),but admitted that more challenges lay ahead. Gruevski
emphasized that, for now, he was able to work well with the DUI
leadership on this issue, and said international assistance with
these cases was not now necessary. Ambassador responded that strong

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leadership requires hard choices. He urged Gruevski to work not to
inflame inter-ethnic tensions, and that the proceedings in these
cases must be transparent and fair.

Maneuvering on Presidential Election Changes
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5. (C) Gruevski briefed the Ambassador on his proposal to amend the
constitution in order to remove the 50% threshold required in the
second round on presidential elections. He admitted that in the past
the authorities have had to resort to ballot stuffing (without
changing the actual winner) in order to reach the threshold, and
asserted that unless this rule is changed there is a "95% chance we
will have unsuccessful presidential elections next year." Time is of
the essence, he added, since it takes about three and a half months
to amend the constitution (presidential elections are due in spring
2009). Ambassador responded that we understood his predicament, and
that we do not support DUI's proposal in recent days to have the
parliament elect the president. This would be a step backward for
Macedonian democracy.

Kosovo Recognition Coming
--------------


6. (C) Gruevski confirmed that Macedonia still plans to recognize
Kosovo in October, along with Montenegro and possibly Portugal
(reftel). However, he added, the Serbs have now told the GoM that
recognition after the UNGA vote on Serbia's proposal to take Kosovo's
independence to the ICJ would be a serious blow. He said he would
call PM Djukanovic the same day or the following day to ask him to
move faster. He reiterated his request that we not discuss this
issue publicly prior to GoM action, and his intention to recognize by
mid-October, with or without Podgorica.

Irredentism
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7. (C) Ambassador underscored that the executive and legislative
branches of the U.S. government firmly oppose irredentism. The U.S.
recognized and supported states, including Macedonia, Greece, and
Kosovo, within their existing and agreed-upon borders. This is an
essential component of stability. The U.S. would oppose irredentism
whether in North America or in the Balkans or anywhere. PM Gruevski
indicated his agreement.

Energy: No Business as Usual with Russia
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8. (SBU) Ambassador suggested that he and the PM agree to discuss
further Macedonia's energy situation. While we understand
Macedonia's reliance on Russian gas, high-level contact (such as a
Gruevski visit to Moscow) would not be advisable given the Georgia
situation. Gruevski understood this, noting that the Russian
ambassador here told him that the GoR is "always ready" for him to
visit Moscow: "They want to use us," Gruevski opined. The PM added
that Macedonia pays a significantly higher price for Russian natural
gas than the other countries in the region: 420 Euro/1000 cubic
meters, as opposed to 220-300 Euro in Serbia, Bulgaria, Bosnia, and
Montenegro. Ambassador inquired as to the status of potential
uranium mines in Macedonia (which Gruevski had mentioned when he and
the Ambassador met informally in New York over Labor Day weekend).
Gruevski replied that these still required exploration. Should this
proceed to exploitation, the GoM would need to decide whether to
pursue development by a state-owned enterprise or to open it up to
private competition.

Chinese interest in New Embassy site
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(C) Gruevski mentioned that the Chinese Ambassador asked FM Milososki
for assistance in acquiring a large (100,000 square meters) piece of
land in the Kale area of Skopje, making clear that they have in mind
the parcel adjacent to our new embassy, and also noted Russian
interest in new construction as well. The Ambassador asked Gruevski
to hold off on selling that land to the Chinese until he has a chance
to consult with Washington.

Reeker