MACEDONIA: ALI AHMETI SPEAKS OUT ON COALITION DYNAMICS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000590 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE AND INR/B E.O. 12958: NA TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL MK AL KV SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ALI AHMETI SPEAKS OUT ON COALITION DYNAMICS Sensitive but unclassified - please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The GoM's decision to prosecute the four cases which the ICTY recently decided not to pursue is a clear violation of the 2002 amnesty law and threatens inter-ethnic relations, ethnic Albanian DUI Party leader Ali Ahmeti told visiting NAVEUR ADM Fitzgerald on Sept 17. Despite his anger at the decision to proceed with these cases -- one of which would personally implicate him -- Ahmeti claimed to enjoy a good working relationship with PM Gruevski and was pleased with the language law and the apparently imminent recognition of Kosovo. However, he asserted, some of Gruevski's closest associates routinely usurp the authority of DUI ministers. Soon after this meeting Ahmeti took his complaints to the press, his first public criticism of the ruling VMRO party since joining the coalition following June 1 elections. He is not ready to bolt, but Ahmeti is likely laying down a marker to Gruevski to back off on these cases. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) In a comprehensive Sept. 17 tour d'horizon with visiting NAVEUR ADM Fitzgerald, DUI leader Ali Ahmeti candidly described the dynamics of his coalition with PM Gruevski's ruling VMRO-DPMNE party. He asserted that his personal relationship with Gruevski was excellent, and touted the new law permitting greater official use of the Albanian language as evidence that VMRO is now able to overcome "taboos" in order to pursue better inter-ethnic relations. However, Ahmeti characterized staff relations between the PM's office and DUI as poor, and also lashed out against DPMs Stavreski (Economy) and Bocevski (Euro-integration) for usurping or quashing projects and initiatives of the Ministry for Economy and the DPM for Implementation of the Framework Agreement, both posts held by DUI. He hoped that Gruevski would be able to persuade his people to work more cooperatively with DUI. ¶3. (SBU) Ahmeti disclosed that Gruevski had agreed to recognize Kosovo soon and this was part of a written coalition agreement between VMRO and DUI. ADM Fitzgerald and the Charge thanked Ahmeti for his assistance in ensuring a successful border demarcation. Ahmeti responded that he was pleased with the fast pace of the demarcation and that both sides have chosen to approach it as a technical rather than political exercise. He also praised Gruevski for respecting the views of the majority of e-Albanian voters by choosing DUI as his partner. His party's main goals remain implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement and membership in NATO and the EU. ¶4. (SBU) Despite his praise for Gruevski, Ahmeti was clearly angry about, and directly appealed for NATO/U.S. intervention in, the GoM's decision to proceed with prosecuting four cases against ethnic Albanians stemming from the 2001 conflict. Ahmeti argued that these cases -- which ICTY recently decided not to pursue -- may not be prosecuted according to the 2002 amnesty law. He accused the authorities of bias, and asked where were prosecutions for atrocities committed against Albanians. He asserted that the intent of the amnesty law -- which he negotiated and supported at the time as part of the package to end the violence -- was clearly that only the ICTY had the competence to prosecute war crimes arising from the conflict. Thus ICTY's decision not to pursue the cases should be the end of the matter. ¶5. (SBU) Ahmeti described a political landscape where only the government coalition parties stand fully intact. The largest e-Macedonian opposition party, the Social Democrats (SDSM),have suffered internal strife for years, indeed since Branko Crvenkovski left the party to become president in 2004. He predicted that Crvenkovski's return to the party next year would strengthen it, adding he has always maintained a good relationship with SDSM. ¶6. (SBU) Ahmeti noted ruefully that while he maintains good ties with the three main political parties in Kosovo, he does not even talk with DPA leader Menduh Thaci. While he cautiously welcomed the formation of a new party --New Democracy (ND) -- by DPA dissidents led by former DPA Vice President Imer Selmani, he warned that Selmani "must not make the same mistakes" as Thaci. Nonetheless, as a goodwill gesture he has offered to share seating in the parliament with Selmani and his ND colleagues in order to avoid close proximity to and possible conflict with Thaci and other DPA MPs. He opined that Selmani was not likely to join the governing coalition at this time, adding that he is pursuing longer-term goals. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Shortly after this meeting, Ahmeti spoke out to the press about the returned ICTY cases and repeated his criticism of Gruevski's closest associates, specifically calling out Bocevski, Finance Minister Slavevski, Education Minister Stojanovski, and SKOPJE 00000590 002 OF 002 Justice Minister Manevski. This was his first public criticism of the ruling party since they formed their coalition over the summer months. Observers here recall that the DUI-SDSM relationship was rocky during their 2002 to 2006 coalition. While some elements within DUI have spoken to us about their displeasure with Gruevski's heavy-handed tactics since winning the elections -- including passing over 150 laws under emergency procedures, many in the absence of the opposition -- Ahmeti has apparently enforced discipline up until now. He is far from breaking ranks with VMRO, but the legal cases rankle, not least because two of the cases involve DUI MPs and another, the so-called NLA Leadership case, would mean charges against him as well for leading the 2001 uprising. The events of 2001 are still a fresh wound here, one that would be dangerous to re-open. (We will report further on these cases septel.) End comment. NAVRATIL