MACEDONIA: ALI AHMETI SPEAKS OUT ON COALITION DYNAMICS

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SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ALI AHMETI SPEAKS OUT ON COALITION DYNAMICS

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1. (SBU) Summary: The GoM's decision to prosecute the four cases
which the ICTY recently decided not to pursue is a clear violation
of the 2002 amnesty law and threatens inter-ethnic relations, ethnic
Albanian DUI Party leader Ali Ahmeti told visiting NAVEUR ADM
Fitzgerald on Sept 17. Despite his anger at the decision to proceed
with these cases -- one of which would personally implicate him --
Ahmeti claimed to enjoy a good working relationship with PM Gruevski
and was pleased with the language law and the apparently imminent
recognition of Kosovo. However, he asserted, some of Gruevski's
closest associates routinely usurp the authority of DUI ministers.
Soon after this meeting Ahmeti took his complaints to the press, his
first public criticism of the ruling VMRO party since joining the
coalition following June 1 elections. He is not ready to bolt, but
Ahmeti is likely laying down a marker to Gruevski to back off on
these cases. End summary.


2. (SBU) In a comprehensive Sept. 17 tour d'horizon with visiting
NAVEUR ADM Fitzgerald, DUI leader Ali Ahmeti candidly described the
dynamics of his coalition with PM Gruevski's ruling VMRO-DPMNE
party. He asserted that his personal relationship with Gruevski was
excellent, and touted the new law permitting greater official use of
the Albanian language as evidence that VMRO is now able to overcome
"taboos" in order to pursue better inter-ethnic relations. However,
Ahmeti characterized staff relations between the PM's office and DUI
as poor, and also lashed out against DPMs Stavreski (Economy) and
Bocevski (Euro-integration) for usurping or quashing projects and
initiatives of the Ministry for Economy and the DPM for
Implementation of the Framework Agreement, both posts held by DUI.
He hoped that Gruevski would be able to persuade his people to work
more cooperatively with DUI.


3. (SBU) Ahmeti disclosed that Gruevski had agreed to recognize
Kosovo soon and this was part of a written coalition agreement
between VMRO and DUI. ADM Fitzgerald and the Charge thanked Ahmeti
for his assistance in ensuring a successful border demarcation.
Ahmeti responded that he was pleased with the fast pace of the
demarcation and that both sides have chosen to approach it as a
technical rather than political exercise. He also praised Gruevski
for respecting the views of the majority of e-Albanian voters by
choosing DUI as his partner. His party's main goals remain
implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement and membership in
NATO and the EU.


4. (SBU) Despite his praise for Gruevski, Ahmeti was clearly angry
about, and directly appealed for NATO/U.S. intervention in, the
GoM's decision to proceed with prosecuting four cases against ethnic
Albanians stemming from the 2001 conflict. Ahmeti argued that these
cases -- which ICTY recently decided not to pursue -- may not be
prosecuted according to the 2002 amnesty law. He accused the
authorities of bias, and asked where were prosecutions for
atrocities committed against Albanians. He asserted that the intent
of the amnesty law -- which he negotiated and supported at the time
as part of the package to end the violence -- was clearly that only
the ICTY had the competence to prosecute war crimes arising from the
conflict. Thus ICTY's decision not to pursue the cases should be
the end of the matter.


5. (SBU) Ahmeti described a political landscape where only the
government coalition parties stand fully intact. The largest
e-Macedonian opposition party, the Social Democrats (SDSM),have
suffered internal strife for years, indeed since Branko Crvenkovski
left the party to become president in 2004. He predicted that
Crvenkovski's return to the party next year would strengthen it,
adding he has always maintained a good relationship with SDSM.


6. (SBU) Ahmeti noted ruefully that while he maintains good ties
with the three main political parties in Kosovo, he does not even
talk with DPA leader Menduh Thaci. While he cautiously welcomed the
formation of a new party --New Democracy (ND) -- by DPA dissidents
led by former DPA Vice President Imer Selmani, he warned that
Selmani "must not make the same mistakes" as Thaci. Nonetheless, as
a goodwill gesture he has offered to share seating in the parliament
with Selmani and his ND colleagues in order to avoid close proximity
to and possible conflict with Thaci and other DPA MPs. He opined
that Selmani was not likely to join the governing coalition at this
time, adding that he is pursuing longer-term goals.


7. (SBU) Comment: Shortly after this meeting, Ahmeti spoke out to
the press about the returned ICTY cases and repeated his criticism
of Gruevski's closest associates, specifically calling out Bocevski,
Finance Minister Slavevski, Education Minister Stojanovski, and

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Justice Minister Manevski. This was his first public criticism of
the ruling party since they formed their coalition over the summer
months. Observers here recall that the DUI-SDSM relationship was
rocky during their 2002 to 2006 coalition. While some elements
within DUI have spoken to us about their displeasure with Gruevski's
heavy-handed tactics since winning the elections -- including
passing over 150 laws under emergency procedures, many in the
absence of the opposition -- Ahmeti has apparently enforced
discipline up until now. He is far from breaking ranks with VMRO,
but the legal cases rankle, not least because two of the cases
involve DUI MPs and another, the so-called NLA Leadership case,
would mean charges against him as well for leading the 2001
uprising. The events of 2001 are still a fresh wound here, one that
would be dangerous to re-open. (We will report further on these
cases septel.) End comment.

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