MACEDONIA: NATO READINESS ASSESSMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000058

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2018
TAGS: PREL
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: NATO READINESS ASSESSMENT

REF: A. 2007 SKOPJE 941

B. SKOPJE 48

C. SKOPJE 22

D. 2007 SKOPJE 920

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).

SUMMARY


1. (C) Macedonia has made steady progress on NATO-related
reform tasks over the past year, including implementation of
most of the May 29 Agreement between governing VMRO and
opposition DUI (ref A). Implementation of the 2001 Framework
Agreement is on track, with timely progress on
decentralization and movement toward more equitable
representation of ethnic minorities in government
institutions. Working with the opposition, the government
recently completed the staffing of the State Judicial Council
and the standing up of an appellate and administrative law
court, which has supported the judicial reform process.
Progress on implementing the 2006 Law on Police has been
strong, with all required bylaws having been passed and
nearly 3/4 of the country's 38 station commanders having been
appointed. Macedonia enjoys good relations with its
neighbors, although the name dispute with Greece continues to
present a serious potential obstacle to its NATO candidacy.
The country also is likely to face a rough patch ahead in its
relations with Serbia, when Skopje will have to decide the
timing of its recognition of an independent Kosovo. Handling
of classified materials continues to be a strong suit, with
Macedonia receiving high marks in that area from NATO
assessment teams. End summary.

DEMOCRATIZATION -- IMPLEMENTATION OF MAY 29 AGREEMENT
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Implementation of the May 29 Agreement accelerated
following a round of meetings between the Ambassador and the
leaders of the four major government and opposition party
leaders in late November (ref A). Shortly after those
meetings, the governing VMRO party and ethnic Albanian
opposition party DUI reached agreement on three of five May
29 requirements. As a result, Parliament agreed on a list of
46 laws requiring a Badinter (qualified majority) vote,
passed an amended Law on the Parliamentary Inter-ethnic
Relations Committee, and reconstituted that committee as
called for in the agreement.


3. (SBU) The government and DUI also have agreed on the
details of a social package for victims of the 2001 conflict.
DUI has provided the information needed to begin
implementation of the social package provisions, but
continues to insist on amending an existing law to cover
former insurgent fighters, a precondition the government
rejects, assessing (accurately) that it exceeds the May 29
Agreement's requirements. The two sides have not met to
discuss next steps since the beginning of the year, but we
are urging a meeting between the parties at the earliest
opportunity to finalize implementation details.


4. (SBU) Talks between governing VMRO and DUI on a draft
language law continue, though progress has been much slower.
DUI has accepted an Embassy-compiled joint draft text for
future deliberations, but VMRO insists that the text contains
provisions which exceed its negotiating redlines and the
terms of the May 29 Agreement. Both sides continue to take
part in regular language law working group meetings, which
generally proceed in a positive atmosphere.

FRAMEWORK IMPLEMENTATION ON TRACK
--------------


5. (SBU) The government continued to demonstrate progress on
implementation of the Framework Agreement, specifically on
decentralization and equitable representation. Phase II of
decentralization began on schedule in July 2007. The
government determined that 42 of 85 municipalities met the
criteria for taking part in phase II at that time; efforts
were undertaken during the remainder of the year to ensure
that additional, if not all, remaining municipalities would
be prepared to start phase II in 2008. By the end of 2007,
51 municipalities were taking part in phase II and the

SKOPJE 00000058 002 OF 003


government continued to work on preparing the remaining
municipalities to participate in 2008.


6. (SBU) The government adopted a National Strategy and
Action Plan on Equitable Representation in 2007 that provides
a framework for greater inclusion of ethnic minority members
in public institutions. By September 2007, the government
reported that ethnic Albanians (25% of the population)
comprised approximately 17 percent of public employees, with
other minority groups making up an additional 5.3 percent of
central budget users. In the Ministry of Defense, ethnic
Albanian representation rose from 13.75 percent in 2006 to
16.24 percent in 2007, and the percentage of ethnic Albanian
NCOs and officers in the Armed Forces continued to grow.


7. (SBU) The government's ethnic Albanian coalition partner,
DPA, which runs the secretariat charged with promoting
equitable representation, recognized that total ethnic
minority hiring (800 new employees) fell short of targets for

2007. To address that shortfall, however, the secretariat
secured a USD 6 million budget for equitable representation
activities in 2008, a significant increase over the USD 3.6
million for 2007. DPA is also considering replacing the
Deputy Prime Minister responsible for overseeing the
secretariat, due to unhappiness with his performance.

SIPDIS

IMPLEMENTING JUDICIAL AND POLICE REFORMS
--------------


8. (SBU) In a significant step forward for political
consensus, PM Gruevski's government accepted President
Crvenkovski's ethnic Bosniac candidate for the State Judicial
Council (SJC) on November 30 (ref A); the parliament approved
the appointment on December 3. That action completed the
composition of the SJC, allowing it to fully perform its
judicial watchdog functions. In addition, the government
ensured that both the Administrative Law Court and the
Gostivar Appellate Court were staffed and operational by
early December, completing that judicial reform requirement.


9. (SBU) On the police reform front, the government in early
December completed all necessary bylaws for implementing the
Law on Police. The Ministry of Interior has begun the
process of appointing station commanders to the 38
municipal-level stations established in the Police Law. As
of early January, 27 of the 38 station commanders had been
appointed, including several in municipalities dominated by
opposition party city councils. Although DUI leaders in
general refused to accept MOI candidates for station
commander positions in municipalities controlled by that
party, the MOI succeeded in early January in appointing a
commander to the police station in the DUI-dominated
municipality of Cair.

GOOD-NEIGHBORLY RELATIONS: POSITIVE THROUGHOUT THE REGION
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) Macedonia enjoys positive trade and tourism ties
with Greece, with Greek firms among the largest investors in
Macedonia, and Greek tourists flocking to Macedonian border
towns for weekend shopping and tourism. The recently
reinvigorated name talks between Athens and Skopje are
ongoing, though progress on resolution of the name issue
remains intractable. Greece insists that Macedonia must
resolve the dispute on its terms before the NATO summit in
Bucharest this April, while Macedonia stresses the bilateral
nature of the dispute and the 1995 agreement that provides
for its entry into international institutions as "FYROM."


11. (SBU) During a January 21 meeting between the Greek and
Macedonian name negotiators held in Ohrid under the auspices
of UN Special Negotiator Nimetz, the GOM proposed to the
Greek side a palette of confidence-building measures,
including a Joint Committee to review historical textbooks,
intensified bilateral high-level and working-level contacts,
and a Joint Declaration in which both sides would reaffirm
their adherence to the 1995 Interim Accord and in which
Skopje would reiterate its pledge, incorporated in its
Constitution, renouncing any territorial claims in Greece
(ref B). Skopje continues to adhere to its "dual name"
formula for resolving the dispute -- one mutually agreed name
for bilateral relations with Greece, and the constitutional

SKOPJE 00000058 003 OF 003


name for use in all other bilateral and multilateral fora --
but Athens has rejected that approach.


12. (SBU) Relations with Bulgaria are good, with no bilateral
irritants noted in the most recent NATO assessment of
Macedonia's MAP performance. Unlike in 2006, there have been
no notable anti-Bulgarian acts by private Macedonian
citizens. The Bulgarians have asked for reference in
Macedonia's MAP progress report to the 1999 Joint Declaration
between the Prime Ministers of the two countries which
provided a framework for advancing bilateral relations, a
request to which the Macedonians have agreed.


13. (C) Skopje enjoys solid ties with Pristina, with numerous
high-level visits between the two sides having occurred since

2005. Cross-border cooperation is excellent, trade is
extensive, and -- at some political risk -- Macedonia is
preparing to serve as a road bridge for an independent Kosovo
in the event a Serb embargo closes the border with Kosovo.
The GOM's key concern as Kosovo moves ahead toward a CDI is
ensuring that the authorities in an independent Kosovo will
move quickly to demarcate the Macedonia-Kosovo border --
which was delineated in a UN-endorsed 2001 Skopje-Belgrade
agreement but never demarcated -- as outlined in the
Ahtisaari Plan. Skopje has indicated that rapid movement to
demarcate the border would help pave the way to a Macedonian
decision to recognize an independent Kosovo.


14. (SBU) Macedonia's relations with Serbia are good, despite
frictions in 2006 and previously related to a jurisdiction
dispute between the Serb Orthodox Church and Macedonian
Orthodox Church. Likely due to Skopje's careful efforts to
be evenhanded in maintaining relations and contacts with
Belgrade, Macedonia's constructive role on Kosovo status
issues does not appear to have led to significant irritation
in current relations with Serbia. Macedonia's leadership
expects a sharp Serbian reaction, however, in the event
Macedonia recognizes an independent Kosovo, which the GOM
intends to do sometime after the first wave of NATO and EU
countries.


15. (SBU) Ties between Albania and Macedonia traditionally
have been positive, as reflected in their close cooperation
in the context of the Adriatic Charter. A recent Macedonian
visa policy change, prompted by EU concerns over how it
issued visas to Albanian travelers, caused a row in relations
between Tirana and Skopje in January. The GOM has since,
however, taken actions to delay implementation of the policy
and is considering measures to ameliorate the impact on
Albanian travelers (ref C). PM Gruevski plans to visit
Tirana in February to meet with his Albanian counterpart, and
will discuss the visa matter, among other issues, with his
interlocutors.

HANDLING CLASSIFIED MATERIALS
--------------


16. (C) As reported in ref D, protection of classified
information continues to be one of Macedonia's strong suits.
The former commander of the NATO Liaison Team in Skopje (a UK
brigadier) told the Ambassador in November 2007 that he was
impressed with Macedonia's protection of classified materials
and the manner in which controls were implemented, including
adequate physical security equipment -- doors and locks -- in
controlled areas. Other NATO contacts have told us that
Macedonia consistently receives high marks from NATO
inspectors for protection of classified information, as
confirmed during the most recent visit of a NATO PARP team.
MILOVANOVIC