MACEDONIA: PLANNING FOR ELECTION RE-RUNS, MORE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000368 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: PLANNING FOR ELECTION RE-RUNS, MORE VIOLENCE EXPECTED? REF: A. SKOPJE 361 ¶B. SKOPJE 364 SUMMARY ¶1. (SBU) Working nearly non-stop for 48 hours, the State Electoral Committee (SEC) by June 6 had ordered election re-runs in 98 polling stations (PSs),due to violence and intimidation or other irregularities that marred the June 1 elections (reftels). In the meantime, the police have charged 88 individuals for pre-election or Election Day violence. ODIHR's team on the ground is concerned that the re-runs could again be violent, unless extensive changes are made in police deployment plans. End summary. SEC WILL LIKELY ORDER RE-RUNS IN 200 POLLING STATIONS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) As of mid-day June 6, the SEC had not finalized a list of PSs in which to conduct re-runs of the Parliamentary elections on June 15 (ref A). By 2 a.m. on June 6, the SEC had completed its review of complaints filed by two of the four political parties and coalitions (DPA and VMRO) and had decided to invalidate the results in 98 PSs in Electoral Districts 1, 2 and 6. The SEC must now decide whether to hold re-runs in all of those PSs; ODIHR believes that will be the case. ¶3. (SBU) Since the SEC is already past the deadline indicated in the Electoral Code (48 hours after the submission of complaints) it is unlikely it will review anything more than the remaining political party complaints (DUI and coalition Sonce led by SDSM). ODIHR's HOM told us June 6 the SEC had followed "a satisfactorily robust process," which would likely result in re-runs in a total of 200 PSs. Once the SEC's list of PSs for re-runs has been released, parties have 24 hours to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, which in turn has 48 hours to decide on the appeals. Additional delays would not/not result in pushing forward the re-run date beyond June 15. POLICE CHARGE 88 FOR ELECTION DAY UNREST -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Ministry of Interior (MOI) Spokesperson Kotevski told us June 6 that the police have so far processed and documented 31 cases of Election Day or pre-Election Day violence and intimidation. A total of 88 individuals in 31 cases have been charged with 53 criminal charges, and 9 with misdemeanors. Of the overall number, 20 suspects are in pre-trial detention, including DPA-affiliated crime boss Agim Krasniqi and his gang of nine and three individuals charged in a June 1 shootout in the Skopje neighborhood of Cair. Kotevski added that there are additional cases under investigation. In a conversation with the DCM on June 5, both Thaci and Ahmeti complained about arrests of their activists. ODIHR CONCERNS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On June 4, ODIHR's Ambassador Barry briefed IC representatives on ODIHR's post-election intial findings. Emphasizing that ODIHR's final assessment will not depend just on the conduct and outcome of re-voting, but also on whether the GOM effectively prosecutes and punishes those responsible for Election Day violence, Barry said he was "not confident" that the GOM would pull it off. In a separate meeting June 6, Ambassador Barry made a pessimistic prediction that the re-runs "would be even more violent" than the June 1 elections. He recounted reports by ODIHR's observers in eAlbanian areas, who said that DUI "has made a call to arms for this round." In Barry's opinion, the situation could be ameliorated by the pre-election removal of Deputy MOI Elmazi and the DPA-affiliated police commander in Tetovo. If they were not removed, Barry said, the security situation will be "serious." ¶6. (SBU) As part of his post-election review, Barry added that clone party SDPM (with candidates with identical or similar names to SDSM's candidates) likely had cost SDSM 3 MP SKOPJE 00000368 002 OF 002 seats. EARLY COALITION RUMORS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) On June 4, EUSR contacts reported that Kosovo's Ramush Haradinaj had reached out to both DPA's Thaci and DUI's Ahmeti, urging them to participate in a joint coalition with VMRO's Gruevski. The report, which was later confirmed by separate sources, alleged that Haradinaj wanted a DPA-DUI agreement to be reached before the expected June 15 re-runs in order to prevent further intra-Albanian violence. Exchanging harsh accusations on June 5 both DPA's Thaci and DUI's Ahmeti ruled out any joint participation in a future inter-ethnic coalition. OPPOSITION LEADER RESIGNATION -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The "irrevocable resignation" of the president of the biggest opposition party, SDSM, Radmila Sekerinska (ref B) led to passionate appeals among some higher-ranking SDSM officials for her to stay. One of the people rumored as a possible replacement for Sekerinska, SDSM VP and Strumica mayor Zoran Zaev, was reported as saying that "the party needs Sekerinska, and the party is more important than her principles." COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Following the flawed early Parliamentary elections on June 1, this week has seen a rush of frantic activity to organize the June 15 re-runs. Clearly overwhelmed, the SEC nevertheless appears to be doing a reasonable job in considering all parties' complaints, and in aiming for a broad approach to approving re-voting. Milovanovic