MACEDONIA'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION TROUBLES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000339 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION TROUBLES CONTINUE REF: SKOPJE 333 AND PREVIOUS SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) In the run up to the June 1 parliamentary election, tensions between ethnic Albanian parties DUI and DPA continued sporadically over the past week, with DUI sustaining most of the property damage to its facilities. The State Electoral Committee (SEC) announced May 20 the completion of accrediting election monitors and the printing of the ballots for the June 1 early elections. Opposition ethnic Macedonian party SDSM alleged heightened pressure and intimidation aimed against its activists, and criticized the government for spending public money for self-promotion and for allegedly supporting the "clone" SDPM party. With the latest, reportedly VMRO influenced, opinion polls showing the governing VMRO with a three-to-one lead over SDSM, VMRO dismissed claims of unfair practices as unnecessary. End summary. DUI/DPA INCIDENTS... -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Despite the continuous and forceful International Community (IC) message to eAlbanian politicians to stop pre-election violence (reftel),incidents have continued. The media reported that on May 16 DUI activists in Gostivar were attacked and two injured, allegedly by DPA supporters, some of them members of the "Alpha" special police units. DPA publicly refuted these allegations on May 20. On May 18, a DUI office in Tetovo and a DPA office in Glogi near Tetovo were reportedly attacked and damaged. On May 21, DUI's Gostivar electoral headquarters chief Besir Jashari told us that on May 20 unknown persons driving 20 vehicles without license plates attacked five DUI offices and stole DUI election materials. ...RECRIMINATIONS CONTINUE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Mutual recriminations continued both in private and in the media. On May 19, DUI publicly accused Minister of Interior Jankuloska and Deputy Minister of Interior Elmazi (a DPA appointee) of participating in DPA Thaci's "butchery." Not to be outdone, on the same day DPA's elections spokesperson released footage of Gostivar mayor and prominent DUI figure Bejta brandishing a gun and making comments "that normal citizens will find shocking." Accusing DPA of manipulating the public, Bejta said the footage had been filmed during a hunting trip last year. In a May 21 meeting with the Ambassador, DPA's former president, and prominent eAlbanian intellectual, Arben Xhaferi assessed both eAlbanian and eMacedonian politicians as "politically and democratically immature." Saying that the country simply had to go through this "bad period," Xhaferi nevertheless pledged to try "to stop the madness, because you cannot build a political future on dead bodies." However, the media has not reported Xhaferi making any subsequent forceful statements against the violence. SEC: MONITORS AND BALLOTS READY FOR ELECTIONS... -------------- -- ¶4. (SBU) On May 20, the State Electoral Committee (SEC) approved the accreditation requests of about 230 international and 320 domestic election monitors. The SEC also finalized the ballots format and randomly determined the order in which candidates will appear on the ballot. The SEC will provide bilingual ballots in municipalities with more than 20% minority residents. Thus, in 52 municipalities the ballots will be only in Macedonian; in 26 in Macedonian and Albanian; in four in Macedonian and Turkish; in one in Macedonian and Serbian; and in one in Macedonian, Roma, and Albanian. ...BUT ODIHR IS CONCERNED -------------- SKOPJE 00000339 002 OF 003 ¶5. (SBU) On May 21, ODIHR Ambassador Barry told the Ambassador that ODIHR Short-Term Observer teams (STOs) were well under the originally planned numbers, due to a smaller-than-predicted number of volunteers and some subsequent dropouts. He also noted that he was concerned about the SEC's lack of a security plan, especially for potential election "hot spots" in primarily eAlbanian areas. Barry said that District 5, including the city of Bitola, is the only primarily eMacedonian area reporting complaints, most related to governing VMRO's misuse of administrative resources. Ambassador Barry added that the Ministry of Interior's (MOI) response to pre-election violence was "uninspiring," noting that neither Minister Jankuloska, nor MOI's Safety Director seemed to be very engaged. SDSM CRITICIZES GOM FOR HARASSING SDSM ACTIVISTS... -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) On May 20, SDSM informed election monitoring NGO MOST of recent harassment of SDSM activists who had tried to put up posters in Bitola. Allegedly, VMRO activists tore down the posters, while the Bitola police station remained passive. Media reported May 22 that the brother of the SDSM candidate in Stip was arrested and briefly detained for filming a May 20 VMRO rally from an apartment balcony. The police charge that he gained access to the apartment by falsely claiming to be an MOI official. SDSM spokesperson Stankovic told us that the filming took place from the apartment of the Secretary General of the local SDSM branch, and that the SDSM official and the other two people present were all handcuffed and charged with false identification. The police reportedly confiscated the camera and the video tape. ...SUPPORTING "CLONE" SDPM -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In a May 19 conversation with the DCM, the Prime Minister Gruevski's Chief of Staff, Martin Protoger, claimed VMRO had no influence with opposition SDSM "clone" party SDPM, which is running candidates with names similar or identical to five SDSM candidates' names. The DCM suggested to Protoger that, since SDPM's president is an ex-VMRO member and a current VMRO appointee in the Ministry of Labor, VMRO has the political influence to persuade him to withdraw from the elections. Pointing to the three-to-one lead enjoyed by VMRO, Protoger asserted his party "does not need tricks to win," and pronounced SDPM's methods were "maybe unethical, but not illegal." The DCM emphasized that Macedonia needs a clean election, and that if the clone party stays on the ballot it will provide strong grounds for criticism, both domestic and international. Protoger pledged to recommend to the Prime Minister that he issue a public statement deploring the clone party. The DCM raised this again with Protoger on May 23. ¶8. (SBU) By May 22, Gruevski had not made such a statement, and the ballots went to print with the SDPM's candidates on them. The SEC's spokesperson told us May 22 that the ballots needed to be printed and the Supreme Court had not ruled on SDSM's complaint regarding SDPM's candidates. The SEC vice president Jakupi added that while he considered SDPM's participation a violation of the Electoral Code, the Public Prosecutor had the responsibility to pursue any charges against SDPM. According to the media, the Public Prosecutor started an investigation against SDPM last week, following reports that many of the "clone candidates" had allegedly been put on the ballot without their knowledge. However, there was no indication that the Public Prosecutor's investigation would be concluded before the election. ...SPENDING OF PUBLIC FUNDS -------------- ¶9. (SBU) May 18, SDSM accused Gruevski's government of having spent 35 million euros of government funds on self-promoting advertising over the past 18 months, including some 700,000 euros during the past 30 days. In response, the government announced it would stop all government-funded information campaigns for the duration of the election. On May 22, PM SKOPJE 00000339 003 OF 003 Gruevski spoke at the grand opening of a 10,000-seat sports hall built with public funds. The majority of the very receptive crowd had reportedly received government-provided tickets. OPINION POLLS -------------- ¶10. (SBU) According to the latest opinion polls of the Institute for Democracy, 30.2% of respondents said they would vote for VMRO, while 10.6% were in favor of SDSM. Among the eAlbanian voters, 9.2% supported DUI and 5.6% supported DPA. PM Gruevski is still the politician with the highest approval rating (32.2%),while SDSM's Sekerinska comes second with 12.2%, followed by DUI's Ahmeti with 9.1% and DPA's Thaci with 4% approval. Soon after the publication of the polls, SDSM disputed their accuracy, saying the Institute of Democracy is related to VMRO activist Gorgi Ivanov and GOM spokesperson Bocevski. COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The election campaign continues to be tarnished by violence and intimidation, primarily in the ethnic Albanian communities, which continue to be directed mostly against DUI, as well as the appearance of "clone candidates" on the ballot. On May 21, the Ambassador briefly answered questions from the media and again called on the government and political leaders to end the violence and intimidation and ensure the perpetrators are legally punished. In the coming days we will continue to privately and publicly send the message that any further violence, intimidation, or election irregularities will significantly damage Macedonia's democratic image. MILOVANOVIC