MACEDONIA: TROUBLED START TO ELECTION CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000328

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: TROUBLED START TO ELECTION CAMPAIGN

REF: SKOPJE 314 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: POLOFF NEISULER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY


1. (SBU) The State Electoral Committee (SEC) gave the green
light to the May 11 election campaign kick-off (reftel) with
the publication of the 18 candidate lists. Tensions rose in
northwest Macedonia, where ethnic Albanian parties DUI and,
to a far lesser extent, DPA have suffered a number of violent
incidents, including shots and grenades fired into offices,
abductions, beatings, and arson. DPA appears to be the main
perpetrator of violence. A May 12 drive-by shooting,
resulting in one person wounded, at DUI President Ahmeti's
motorcade has been characterized by DUI as an attempt on the
life of their leader, while DPA countered that the incident
was a DUI set-up. Strong GOM and IC condemnation of the
violence, and police action to arrest the perpetrators, have
calmed passions somewhat. Election monitors are warning that
an atmosphere of fear has been created in the eAlbanian towns
and countryside. Ethnic Macedonian SDSM has labeled
governing VMRO pressure tactics as "a more sophisticated
version" of the intimidation and violence demonstrated by
VMRO's eAlbanian partner DPA. End summary.

90% OF MACEDONIA'S POPULATION ELIGIBLE TO VOTE?..
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2. (SBU) The official parliamentary election campaign began
May 11, with the SEC confirming the participation of 18
parties and coalitions. (Note: VMRO-Narodna, which had
originally submitted its candidate list, was disqualified for
irregularities in the submission of their application. End
note.) The voter registry puts the number of eligible voters
at 1.74 million --35,000 more voters than in 2006-- a highly
improbable number in a country whose overall population is
just over 2 million. In a May 13 meeting with the Charge and
EUSR Fouere, SEC President Josifovski (who is considered to
be close to ruling VMRO) said he believed the voter list was
accurate and emphasized he had not received any complaints
regarding "any missing or invalid names." (Comment: The
excess registered voters are, in fact, comprised of the
deceased, diaspora, and others who once were registered but
who are now ineligible or unable to vote. End comment.)

ELECTION-RELATED INCIDENTS -- DUI/DPA SHOOTINGS...
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3. (SBU) Over the weekend, media reported on the May 10
beating of DUI activists and drive-by shootings at four DUI
offices in Western Macedonia. On May 12, the Charge called
DPA President Thaci and DUI President Ahmeti to express his
concern about these cases of election-related violence.
Disagreeing with suggestions that the incidents were
instigated mainly by DPA activists, Thaci accused DUI's
supporters of "pretending to be attacked" and alleged that
DUI had appealed to Kosovars to come "and wreak havoc" in
Macedonia. Opining that these were all cases of criminal
activity, Thaci pledged to make a public statement calling on
his supporters not to provoke any incidents. (Note: He has
not yet done so almost a week later. End note.)


4. (SBU) In a separate call, Ahmeti claimed he had just
survived an assassination attempt in the village of Rakovica
near Tetovo in Northwestern Macedonia. Distressed, Ahmeti
asked if the U.S. could guarantee his safety, saying he was
considering whether he should withdraw from the campaign.
The Charge encouraged Ahmeti to ask for extra security from
the MOI. Referring to recent media reports about DUI calls
for "federalization" of the country, the Charge said such
positions were risky, in light of Kosovo developments, and
unacceptable. Ahmeti assured us that DUI did not advocate
federalization, and noted that DUI's platform is based on
equal rights for eAlbanians and eMacedonias, and on
preserving Macedonia's territorial integrity, and guaranteed
that "not a single individual from outside of Macedonia will
be part of the DUI campaign." (Comment: In 2006, similar
rumors and concerns that DUI would bring in people from
Kosovo proved unfounded. End comment.)

...THEATRICS: DUI PROTEST CLOSES SCHOOLS

SKOPJE 00000328 002 OF 003


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5. (C) On May 13, DUI held a protest in the Tetovo city
square under the motto "Stop the violence!" Several thousand
DUI supporters attended the peaceful protest where DUI's
leadership appealed for eAlbanian unity and predicted that
"no force will stop us on the way to fulfill the promise."
DUI election headquarters chief Mexhiti called "the
assassination attempt on Ahmeti the culmination of state and
party brutality." Despite the protest's message against
violence and weapons, media reported May 14 that, during the
event, groups of armed DPA and DUI activists silently faced
each other from opposite sides of the Tetovo square. The
protest was delayed due to a cut in the power supply. Power,
which DPA's Thaci had ordered shut off, was restored after a
phone call to Thaci, the Prime Minister confided to the
Ambassador in a May 15 meeting.


6. (SBU) Media reported May 13 that, on the orders of the DUI
local authorities, the schools of Gostivar, Tearce, Struga
and Debar, were closed. Gostivar mayor Bejta confirmed to us
May 14 that he had ordered the closure to all schools and
municipal authority offices since he considered the situation
on May 13 following the shooting incident involving Ahmeti's
car "dangerous to the children's security." In Debar,
students were reportedly ordered to leave the classrooms
without an explanation. The DPA-run Ministry of Education
plans to penalize the schools and teachers involved for the
"illegal" school interruptions.

STRONG GOM PUBLIC REACTION...
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7. (C) In a May 12 meeting with PolChief, PM's Chief of Staff
Protoger asked for USG help "to deal with the two eAlbanian
parties." Assessing both Thaci and Ahmeti as "nervous" about
the campaign and Election Day, Protoger suggested Post
pressure the Ministry of Interior (MOI) to rotate out the
special police Alpha Units from Tetovo and Gostivar and
replace them with Alphas from other areas. Concerned about
the shooting aimed at Ahmeti, the Ambassador contacted the
Prime Minister from Washington late May 12. Pledging to take
appropriate actions, PM Gruevski held a meeting with Thaci
May 13, after which he said "there will be no partisan
protection for anyone." President Crvenkovski added May 13
that "any type of violence is absolutely unacceptable."

...PROMPT POLICE ARRESTS
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8. (SBU) Following intensive Embassy mediation between the
MOI and DUI, DUI witnesses went to the police late May 13 to
identify one of the suspects in the shooting of Ahmeti's car.
Despite DUI's unenthusiastic cooperation with the police,
the MOI pressed charges against 31-year-old Faruk Ilazi,
arrested on suspicion of participating in the armed attack on
Ahmeti, as well as against 28-year-old fugitive Vullnet
Xhelili. On May 14, the investigative judge sentenced both
suspects to 30-day custody; later that day, Xhelili turned
himself in to police in Tetovo.

SEC AND ELECTION MONITORS ARE WORRIED
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9. (SBU) In a May 14 meeting with PolChief, MOST president
Aleksov expressed "serious concerns" about the security
situation in northwest Macedonia, which may lead the election
monitoring NGO to decide against deploying observers to those
areas. Going through a list of incidents --including setting
of cars on fire and armed thug patrols on the streets--
reported by MOST observers in the field, Aleksov predicted
Gostivar would be the "real hot spot" of the elections.
Although traditionally DUI territory, DPA is making inroads
and is getting ready to compete fiercely with DUI, Aleksov
said. Aleksov's concerns echoed what SEC President
Josifovski told Charge on May 13. Josifovski added that
Local Election Board members in the area are frightened to
serve on the boards, and were finding reasons to be excluded
from service.

SDSM: GOM INTIMIDATION AND SDPM CLONE ARE TROUBLING
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SKOPJE 00000328 003 OF 003




10. (SBU) In a May 13 meeting with the Charge, SDSM President
Sekerinska compared eMacedonian rival VMRO's "philosophy of
intimidation" as "identical to that of DPA, only more
sophisticated." She talked about two incidents against the
property of SDSM activists in Veles and Bitola, which she
considered part of the GOM's "attack on the opposition,"
although the police considered the attacks "unrelated to the
elections." Complaining about the GOM's "unequal media
exposure," Sekerinska said VMRO wanted the public to think
"the elections are over, because we --VMRO-- are going to win
big." (Note: In the meantime, on May 13, the Broadcasting
Council penalized Sitel, A1 and Kanal 5 TV stations for
breaching the Broadcasting Law related to elections. The
penalties ranged from a warning to a ban on the airing of TV
ads for three days. End note.)


11. (SBU) Sekerinska protested against the SEC's "legalistic
reading" of the law in allowing clone SDPM's registration
(reftel),despite the party's clear intention to mislead SDSM
voters. Since SDPM's president, Branko Janevski, is a VMRO
government-appointed head of a department with the Ministry
of Labor, Sekerinska concluded "that proves SDPM is a VMRO
creation." In his meeting with the Charge, SEC President
Josifovski defended the SEC's decision, adding that
responsibility for dealing with fraud issues falls to the
Public Prosecutor's office and the Commission for the
Protection of Personal Data, which had already filed a
complaint. He committed, however, to raise the issue with
the whole SEC before the election ballots are printed. The
Ambassador and EUSR pressed the PM May 15 to take action to
resolve this.

COMMENT


12. (C) Shootings and an alleged "assassination attempt" on
Ahmeti characterized the first hours after the May 11
election campaign kick off. Prompt International Community
and GOM condemnation of the violence and efficient police
action have managed to calm things down a bit. A credible
source told us that Prime Minister Gruevski told DPA that
--if they won just three or fewer MP seats than DUI-- the PM
would include DPA again in the next coalition, making it
imperative for DPA to win the elections, seemingly at any
cost.
MILOVANOVIC