MACEDONIA: PRESIDENT CRVENKOVSKI ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000327 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE (PFEUFFER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: PRESIDENT CRVENKOVSKI ON ELECTION-RELATED VIOLENCE REF: SKOPJE 314 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) President Crvenkovski told the Ambassador during a meeting May 15 he believed the parliament had not prepared adequatedly for early elections in Macedonia on June 1. He expressed serious concerns about intra-Albanian DUI-DPA violence that had marred the beginning of the election campaign and suggested that an appeal to DPA founder Arben Xhaferi might reign in DPA-inspired violence and intimidation tactics. He said the government could further deter such violence by promptly arresting and prosecuting perpetrators. Crvenkovski blamed PM Gruevski for intensifying the DUI-DPA rivalry by promising each a place in a future governing coalition. He predicted that DPA President Thaci would employ violent tactics on Election Day if it looked like his party was likely to lose the elections. End summary. CRVENKOVSKI: INADEQUATE PRE-ELECTORAL PREPARATIONS... -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Ambassador met with President Crvenkovski May 15 to express US concerns regarding recent election-related violence (reftel) in the run-up to Macedonia's early parliamentary elections on June 1. Crvenkovski complained that, before dissolving the parliament in early April, Macedonian MPs had failed to pass legislation required for an effective electoral process (e.g., regulations on equal media time for all parties). The State Broadcasting Council was not adequately funded to carry out its media monitoring function, and the government was abusing its authority by spending public funds for campaign purposes, he added. ....STOPPING INTRA-ETHNIC VIOLENCE -------------- ¶3. (C) Crvenkovski said he was most concerned by recent violence between ethnic Albanian parties DPA (junior government coalition partner) and DUI (main eAlbanian opposition). He recommended strong pressure on DUI to resist DPA provocations by DPA supporters. Crvenkovski said neither overall International Community (IC) persuasion nor Kosovar Albanian influence could dissuade DPA President Thaci from his destructive tactics of violence and intimidation. Only the United States or an appeal from DPA founder and political grey eminence Arben Xhaferi could help change Thaci's approach. He added that the IC should work with Pristina and UNMIK to address unconfirmed reports that Kosovar "reinforcements" had moved into Macedonia to support both DUI and DPA. ¶4. (C) The President added that DPA also could be deterred from committing further acts of violence and intimidation if the government acted decisively to arrest and prosecute the perpetrators. Critical of the general lack of a police response to alleged DPA violence, Crvenkovski said police should arrest illegally armed political activists engaged in campaign activities in Gostivar and Tetovo. If PM Gruevski made it clear to Thaci that DPA was not beyond the reach of the law, and followed through with action, that would have a deterrent effect on more volatile DPA supporters. He also recommended changing the structure of the police forces in Tetovo or Gostivar GRUEVSKI PLANTED THE SEEDS -------------- ¶5. (C) Crvenkovski said Gruevski had "started the gladiator battle" between DPA and DUI by promising each a place in a future governing coalition. That had made the elections a "life or death" struggle for the two parties. He shared his assessment that DUI by-and-large had not responded to DPA provocations in kind. He predicted that post-Election Day coalition building tensions would be "even worse" than those that had followed the 2006 national elections. SDPM CLONE PARTY COSTS SDSM VOTES -------------- SKOPJE 00000327 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) The Ambassador asked Crvenkovski what he thought of the Social Democratic Party of Macedonia (SDPM),a "clone" party of the largest opposition party SDSM, which is running candidates in all electoral districts with candidate names similar or identical to the SDSM's candidates. Crvenkovski assessed the problem of the "clone" SDPM party as significant, having cost SDSM 3 MP seats in the 2006 elections, by his reckoning. Seeing SDPM as "a VMRO creation," Crvenkovski said he was surprised VMRO was campaigning so agressively, despite their obvious lead. HEAT IS RISING -------------- ¶7. (C) Referring to a lull in the violence over the past 48 hours, Crvenkovski predicted that Thaci would keep things calm until he saw he was at risk of losing the elections. That would prompt him to deploy more violent tactics on Election Day, which could cause an eMacedonian outcry about how intra-ethnic violence was endangering Macedonia's future prospects. That outcome could lead, he warned, to serious inter-ethnic tensions. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Crvenkovski's sober analysis reflects the unfortunate reality on the ground here, with a disturbing number of violent incidents, ongoing intimidation, and other significant election problems having marred the pre-campaign and campaign periods. The Ambassador, with her EUSR counterpart, conveyed our serious concerns about the violent trend and other serious flaws in the election process to PM Gruevski on May 15 (septel),and urged strong police action to find and punish the perpetrators. The Ambassador also will seek a meeting with DPA founder Arben Xhaferi to urge him to rein in Thaci and his supporters. MILOVANOVIC