MACEDONIA: CONTINUED KOSOVO CONTINGENCY PLANNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SKOPJE 000031 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCA PFEUFFER E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2018 TAGS: KV PGOV PREL ETRD MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: CONTINUED KOSOVO CONTINGENCY PLANNING REF: 2007 SKOPJE 985 Classified By: POL/ECON OFFICER M. LATHAM FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The GOM continues to focus on planning for the possible implications of an independent Kosovo (reftel). In a January 11 meeting with the Ambassador, FM Antonio Milososki discussed GOM actions to prepare the Macedonian public for eventual Kosovo independence, to counter impacts on trade of a possible Serb embargo, and to keep Pristina apprised of Macedonian interest in prompt border demarcation. The Macedonian Customs Agency is working with its Pristina and UNMIK counterparts on contingency planning in case of a Serbian closure of the Serbia-Kosovo border. Macedonian Customs officials believe that, in the event of a Serbian embargo, there should be no/no significant problems coping with a potential increase in border traffic between Macedonia and Kosovo. End summary. Foreign Minister On Kosovo Independence -------------- ¶2. (C) Foreign Minister Milososki told the Ambassador in a January 11 meeting that positive signals from Pristina on border demarcation of the Kosovo-Macedonia border could facilitate Macedonia's recognition of Kosovo. He mentioned that GOM officials had just begun internal discussions of ways to present the GOM's recognition decision to the Macedonian public in order to minimize potential negative domestic reaction. He said the GOM continued to have concerns about the security and economic impact of recognition, and noted that Macedonian border officials had met with their Kosovar counterparts to discuss contingency planning. Milososki said he was not convinced the Kosovo side was fully prepared yet to implement the measures needed to facilitate increased border traffic with Macedonia in the event of a Serbia embargo. Macedonian Customs Confident It Can Manage Increased Traffic -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Macedonian Customs Agency Head of Investigations and Control, Darko Dulic, has been tasked to coordinate Customs' planning in the event that Serbia closes its border with Serbia and traffic is rerouted through Macedonia. Dulic told us on January 10 that Macedonian Customs is confident it can handle the projected increased border traffic. He said that, in general, Customs has excellent cooperation with its counterparts in Kosovo. Customs officials also had met with UNMIK representatives on January 9 to review possible embargo scenarios. UNMIK had told the Macedonians that they estimated Macedonia would face a maximum increase of 200 trucks daily at the Blace border crossing with Kosovo. ¶4. (SBU) According to Dulic, Macedonian Customs and border police would have no problems processing a major increase in traffic at the Blace crossing. If that border crossing became too congested, non-commercial traffic would be re-routed through the less-used Jazince border crossing north of Tetovo. The Jazince crossing is in a more mountainous area and is not normally open to commercial traffic. Dulic said that the Jazince crossing also could be opened to commercial traffic, if needed. In addition, Macedonian Customs and UNMIK representatives discussed increased use of the Pristina-Skopje railway as an alternative transport route. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) The discussions between Macedonian and Kosovar customs officials show that, at the working-level, planning is well in place to manage the potential impacts of Kosovo independence. Although Milososki indicated some concerns that Kosovo authorities are not fully prepared for a possible re-routing of traffic through Macedonia in the event of a Serbian embargo, Macedonian Customs officials working the issue do not appear to share those concerns. Milososki's discussion of the importance of border demarcation, despite Pristina's stated acceptance that demarcation will be resolved in the context of the Ahtisaari plan, underscores the sensitivity and top priority the GOM accords the issue. MILOVANOVIC