MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR USAID ADMINISTRATOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000311 SIPDIS FOR USAID ADMINISTRATOR FORE FROM CHARGE NAVRATIL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR USAID ADMINISTRATOR HENRIETTA FORE'S VISIT TO SKOPJE MAY 16 LEVERAGING STRONG PRO-U.S. SENTIMENT -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Ambassador Milovanovic and the Embassy Skopje team look forward to welcoming you to Macedonia. Your visit comes at a time when pro-U.S. sentiment in Macedonia is at its highest level in recent years. President Bush's solid support for Macedonia's NATO candidacy at Bucharest, coupled with subsequent U.S. actions to demonstrate our support for a fair and speedy resolution of the name dispute with Greece, have reaffirmed to the government, opposition and public that the U.S. remains Macedonia's single most important strategic partner. We are capitalizing on this heightened confidence and trust to press for progress on several important U.S. policy objectives in Macedonia and the region, including: --moving quickly to resolve the name dispute with Greece in order to allow Macedonia to join Albania and Croatia in signing NATO accession protocols in July; --ensuring free, fair and peaceful parliamentary elections on June 1 to demonstrate Macedonia's political maturity; and --solidifying relations with Kosovo through official recognition and prompt border demarcation without unhelpfully linking the two. RESOLVE THE NAME DISPUTE, FOCUS ON NATO MEMBERSHIP -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Although stung by the Greek veto at Bucharest, both PM Gruevski and President Crvenkovski remain committed to a negotiated settlement of the name issue that preserves Macedonian redlines. Those redlines include no change in the description of the Macedonian nationality or language, no change in the constitutional name, and -- for Gruevski -- public approval of any settlement through a referendum. Both countries' negotiators met with UN mediator Nimetz in the US the week of April 27 to discuss ideas for a possible solution. Ambassador Nimetz was expected to visit Skopje and Athens the week of May 4 for follow-up discussions, but over concerns related to Macedonia's June 1 elections. ¶3. (SBU) We have encouraged Macedonia to engage in the name talks with maximum flexibility in order to resolve the dispute in time to join Albania and Croatia in signing NATO accession protocols on July 9. A tall order even under normal circumstances, that challenge is complicated by political campaign dynamics in advance of Macedonia's upcoming June 1 parliamentary elections. FREE, FAIR, AND PEACEFUL ELECTIONS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Informal election campaigning and pre-election coalition-building already are well underway here, with the governing VMRO party enjoying a hefty lead in the polls. Rhetorical broadsides and mudslinging from all parties are adding to a heated pre-campaign atmosphere, and there have been some minor incidents of violence (property damage, no injuries) mainly between the two main ethnic Albanian parties. ¶5. (SBU) We have delivered a clear message to our interlocutors here that we hold all parties responsible for the conduct of the elections. The government has a special responsibility to ensure that the elections are free, fair and peaceful, and that the conduct of the entire electoral process meets international standards. If the elections are seriously flawed, the GOM should expect that the Greeks and possibly others would cite that shortcoming as a reason for not extending a NATO invitation to Macedonia in the immediate future. ¶6. (SBU) All of Macedonia's significant political parties publicly signed an electoral code of conduct developed by NDI, supported by USAID funding. U.S. assistance money is also supporting other NGOs working to ensure free and fair elections. KOSOVO: DELINKING DEMARCATION AND RECOGNITION SKOPJE 00000311 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Skopje and Pristina formed in April a Joint Technical Commission (JTC) to demarcate their shared border on the basis of a 2001 agreement between Skopje and Belgrade (which Pristina grudgingly accepted, with USG prodding, per the Ahtisaari Plan). The JTC has met several times since then. Actual demarcation, a top priority for the GOM, could begin soon, despite strong Serb government objections to proceeding absent Belgrade's participation. ¶8. (SBU) The GOM is wary, however, that the Kosovars may refuse to demarcate some potentially contentious areas delineated in the 2001 agreement. Skopje has suggested it will not recognize Kosovo until those areas are actually demarcated. We have urged the GOM to continue the positive momentum on border demarcation, while avoiding linkage between demarcation and a decision on recognition. USG ASSISTANCE PRIORITIES -------------- ¶9. (SBU) USG assistance priorities here target reforms needed to ensure Macedonia's NATO and EU accession. Specific challenges include combating corruption, addressing high unemployment, and implementing the 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement, which provides for better minority rights protection. The top USG assistance objective in Macedonia is "governing justly and democratically," which includes the inter-related goals of rule of law promotion and governing justly through good governance. "Economic growth," with activities aimed at improving private sector competitiveness, agricultural productivity and workforce training, is the second highest USG development priority here. INTENSIFIED PARTNERSHIP -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The U.S. and Macedonia signed a "Declaration of Strategic Partnership and Cooperation" on May 7 during FM Milososki's visit to Washington. The declaration highlights the strong U.S.-Macedonian partnership in promoting international stability and calls for broader bilateral cooperation in the areas of security, people-to-people ties, and commerce. NAVRATIL