MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR USAID ADMINISTRATOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000311

SIPDIS

FOR USAID ADMINISTRATOR FORE FROM CHARGE NAVRATIL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR USAID ADMINISTRATOR
HENRIETTA FORE'S VISIT TO SKOPJE MAY 16


LEVERAGING STRONG PRO-U.S. SENTIMENT
--------------


1. (SBU) Ambassador Milovanovic and the Embassy Skopje team
look forward to welcoming you to Macedonia. Your visit comes
at a time when pro-U.S. sentiment in Macedonia is at its
highest level in recent years. President Bush's solid
support for Macedonia's NATO candidacy at Bucharest, coupled
with subsequent U.S. actions to demonstrate our support for a
fair and speedy resolution of the name dispute with Greece,
have reaffirmed to the government, opposition and public that
the U.S. remains Macedonia's single most important strategic
partner. We are capitalizing on this heightened confidence
and trust to press for progress on several important U.S.
policy objectives in Macedonia and the region, including:

--moving quickly to resolve the name dispute with Greece in
order to allow Macedonia to join Albania and CROATIA in
signing NATO accession protocols in July;

--ensuring free, fair and peaceful parliamentary elections on
June 1 to demonstrate Macedonia's political maturity; and

--solidifying relations with Kosovo through official
recognition and prompt border demarcation without unhelpfully
linking the two.

RESOLVE THE NAME DISPUTE, FOCUS ON NATO MEMBERSHIP
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Although stung by the Greek veto at Bucharest, both
PM Gruevski and President Crvenkovski remain committed to a
negotiated settlement of the name issue that preserves
Macedonian redlines. Those redlines include no change in the
description of the Macedonian nationality or language, no
change in the constitutional name, and -- for Gruevski --
public approval of any settlement through a referendum. Both
countries' negotiators met with UN mediator Nimetz in the US
the week of April 27 to discuss ideas for a possible
solution. Ambassador Nimetz was expected to visit Skopje and
Athens the week of May 4 for follow-up discussions, but over
concerns related to Macedonia's June 1 elections.


3. (SBU) We have encouraged Macedonia to engage in the name
talks with maximum flexibility in order to resolve the
dispute in time to join Albania and CROATIA in signing NATO
accession protocols on July 9. A tall order even under
normal circumstances, that challenge is complicated by
political campaign dynamics in advance of Macedonia's
upcoming June 1 parliamentary elections.

FREE, FAIR, AND PEACEFUL ELECTIONS
--------------


4. (SBU) Informal election campaigning and pre-election
coalition-building already are well underway here, with the
governing VMRO party enjoying a hefty lead in the polls.
Rhetorical broadsides and mudslinging from all parties are
adding to a heated pre-campaign atmosphere, and there have
been some minor incidents of violence (property damage, no
injuries) mainly between the two main ethnic Albanian
parties.


5. (SBU) We have delivered a clear message to our
interlocutors here that we hold all parties responsible for
the conduct of the elections. The government has a special
responsibility to ensure that the elections are free, fair
and peaceful, and that the conduct of the entire electoral
process meets international standards. If the elections are
seriously flawed, the GOM should expect that the Greeks and
possibly others would cite that shortcoming as a reason for
not extending a NATO invitation to Macedonia in the immediate
future.


6. (SBU) All of Macedonia's significant political parties
publicly signed an electoral code of conduct developed by
NDI, supported by USAID funding. U.S. assistance money is
also supporting other NGOs working to ensure free and fair
elections.

KOSOVO: DELINKING DEMARCATION AND RECOGNITION

SKOPJE 00000311 002 OF 002


--------------


7. (SBU) Skopje and Pristina formed in April a Joint
Technical Commission (JTC) to demarcate their shared border
on the basis of a 2001 agreement between Skopje and Belgrade
(which Pristina grudgingly accepted, with USG prodding, per
the Ahtisaari Plan). The JTC has met several times since
then. Actual demarcation, a top priority for the GOM, could
begin soon, despite strong Serb government objections to
proceeding absent Belgrade's participation.


8. (SBU) The GOM is wary, however, that the Kosovars may
refuse to demarcate some potentially contentious areas
delineated in the 2001 agreement. Skopje has suggested it
will not recognize Kosovo until those areas are actually
demarcated. We have urged the GOM to continue the positive
momentum on border demarcation, while avoiding linkage
between demarcation and a decision on recognition.

USG ASSISTANCE PRIORITIES
--------------


9. (SBU) USG assistance priorities here target reforms needed
to ensure Macedonia's NATO and EU accession. Specific
challenges include combating corruption, addressing high
unemployment, and implementing the 2001 Ohrid Framework
Agreement, which provides for better minority rights
protection. The top USG assistance objective in Macedonia is
"governing justly and democratically," which includes the
inter-related goals of rule of law promotion and governing
justly through good governance. "Economic growth," with
activities aimed at improving private sector competitiveness,
agricultural productivity and workforce training, is the
second highest USG development priority here.

INTENSIFIED PARTNERSHIP
--------------


10. (SBU) The U.S. and Macedonia signed a "Declaration of
Strategic Partnership and Cooperation" on May 7 during FM
Milososki's visit to Washington. The declaration highlights
the strong U.S.-Macedonian partnership in promoting
international stability and calls for broader bilateral
cooperation in the areas of security, people-to-people ties,
and commerce.
NAVRATIL