MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR FM MILOSOSKI'S MAY 6-7

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000299

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK GR KV
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR FM MILOSOSKI'S MAY 6-7
VISIT TO WASHINGTON

LEVERAGING STRONG PRO-U.S. SENTIMENT
--------------


1. (SBU) FM Milososki's visit comes at a time when pro-U.S.
sentiment in Macedonia is at its highest level in recent
years. President Bush's solid support for Macedonia's NATO
candidacy at Bucharest, coupled with subsequent U.S. actions
to demonstrate our support for a fair and speedy resolution
of the name dispute with Greece, have convinced the
government, opposition and public that the U.S. remains
Macedonia's single most important strategic partner. We can
use the resulting leverage to press for progress on several
important U.S. policy objectives in Macedonia and the region,
including:

--moving quickly to resolve the name dispute with Greece in
order to allow Macedonia to join Albania and Croatia in
signing NATO accession protocols in July;

--ensuring free, fair and peaceful parliamentary elections on
June 1 to demonstrate Macedonia's political maturity; and

--preventing any overt or implicit linkage between
demarcation of Macedonia's border with Kosovo and Skopje's
timing on recognition.

RESOLVE THE NAME DISPUTE, FOCUS ON NATO MEMBERSHIP
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Although stung by the Greek veto at Bucharest, both
PM Gruevski and President Crvenkovski remain committed to a
negotiated settlement of the name issue that preserves
Macedonian redlines. Those redlines include no change in the
description of the Macedonian nationality or language, no
change in the constitutional name, and -- for Gruevski --
public approval of any settlement through a referendum.
Macedonia's name negotiator, Ambassador Dimitrov, met with UN
mediator Nimetz in the US this week to discuss the latter's
ideas for a possible solution, including the scope of use of
any new official name. Nimetz is expected to visit Skopje
and Athens next week for follow-up discussions.


3. (SBU) We need to keep pressure on the Macedonian side to
engage in the name talks with maximum flexibility in order to
resolve the dispute in time to join Albania and Croatia in
signing NATO accession protocols on July 9. A tall order
even under normal circumstances, that challenge is
complicated by political campaign dynamics in advance of
Macedonia's upcoming June 1 parliamentary elections.
Irritants developing in Greek-Macedonian relations, including
Athens's denial of overflight clearance for a Macedonian
tourist airline, and recent hardline statements by Milososki
in response to Greek actions and comments, could place
additional obstacles in the way of a speedy agreement. FM
Milososki needs to hear a firm message regarding the need for
Skopje to exercise restraint in reacting to real or perceived
provocations from Athens.

FREE, FAIR, AND PEACEFUL ELECTIONS
--------------


4. (SBU) Informal election campaigning and pre-election
coalition-building already are well underway here, with the
governing VMRO party enjoying a heft lead in the polls.
Rhetorical broadsides and mudslinging from all parties are
adding to a heated pre-campaign atmosphere, and there have
been some minor incidents of violence (property damage, no
injuries) mainly between the two main ethnic Albanian
parties.


5. (SBU) Milososki may try to place the blame for anticipated
electoral irregularities on the ethnic Albanian parties. He
should hear a clear message that we hold all parties
responsible for the conduct of the elections. The government
has a special responsibility to ensure that the elections are
free, fair and peaceful, and that the conduct of the entire
electoral process meets international standards. If the
elections are seriously flawed, the GOM should expect that
the Greeks and others could cite that shortcoming as a reason
for not extending a NATO invitation to Macedonia anytime soon.

SKOPJE 00000299 002 OF 002




KOSOVO: DELINKING DEMARCATION AND RECOGNITION
--------------


6. (SBU) Skopje and Pristina formed in April a Joint
Technical Commission (JTC) to demarcate their shared border
on the basis of a 2001 agreement between Skopje and Belgrade
(which Pristina grudgingly accepted, with USG prodding, per
the Ahtisaari Plan). The JTC has met several times since
then. Actual demarcation, a top priority for the GOM, could
begin soon, despite strong Serb government objections to
proceeding absent Belgrade's participation.


7. (SBU) The GOM is wary, however, that the Kosovars may
refuse to demarcate some potentially contentious areas
delineated in the 2001 agreement. Skopje has suggested it
will not recognize Kosovo until those areas are actually
demarcated. Although relations between Skopje and Pristina
generally have been good, the Macedonian decision not to
invite Kosovar President Sejdiu to a meeting of regional
heads of state in Ohrid this week reportedly was perceived as
a snub in Pristina and could complicate the demarcation
process. Milososki should be urged to continue the positive
momentum on border demarcation, while avoiding linkage
between demarcation and a decision on recognition.
NAVRATIL