MACEDONIA: MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON EARLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SKOPJE 000254 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NATO MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON EARLY ELECTIONS REF: SKOPJE 239 Classified By: POLOFF NEISULER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY ¶1. (C) FM Milososki informed the Ambassador April 7 that the ruling VMRO-DPMNE party intends to initiate the procedure for early elections. The earliest such elections could be held is between 60 and 90 days after Parliament votes for its dissolution, which could come as early as the end of this week. End summary. ¶2. (C) FM Milososki informed the Ambassador April 7 about the ruling party VMRO-DPMNE's decision "to promote early elections as soon as possible." Milososki said early elections would be "healthy" for Macedonian society, since they would deal with the public's pent-up frustration over the failed NATO bid. In addition, Milososki thought elections now would give the public "a respite" from the name dispute, while also reconfirming the government's mandate to tackle the issue with Greece. Finally, Milososki predicted that a new political constellation in Parliament would result in a more "manageable" inter-ethnic coalition. (Comment: All bets are for a stronger VMRO-DPMNE vote now than in 2006. End comment.) ¶3. (C) Asked by the Ambassador about the next steps in the process, Milososki said he expected Parliament to vote to dissolve itself by the end of this week, or the beginning of next week, thus effectively starting the pre-election process. He added confidently that "the majority of MPs will support early elections." According to the Constitution, early elections can take place within 60 to 90 days after the Parliament's dissolution. We expect elections in about 60 days. ¶4. (C) Milososki made clear that the GOM welcomed U.S. engagement on the name dispute, including the proposed visit by Ambassador Nuland, even with elections on the way. COMMENT ¶5. (C) VMRO-DPMNE's widely-anticipated decision to go to early elections reflects the ongoing permanent campaign strategy of the ruling party. Milososki's confidence that his party can count on the necessary Parliamentary votes suggests VMRO-DPMNE has made a deal with eAlbanian opposition party DUI, whose votes they need to dissolve Parliament. DUI leader Ahmeti's public declaration that on April 8 DUI will formally propose dissolution of Parliament, a precursor of elections, corroborates this impression. Despite this development, we believe it is still important for the USG and for Ambassador Nuland to remain actively engaged in the process for resolving the name issue. MILOVANOVIC