MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN DPA BACK IN GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000220 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NATO MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN DPA BACK IN GOVERNMENT REF: SKOPJE 213 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: POLOFF NEISULER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) DPA, the ethnic Albanian junior governing coalition partner, announced March 23 it would return to the VMRO-led government of PM Gruevski. The announcement came only 11 days after DPA President Thaci declared that DPA had left the coalition because of PM Gruevski's failure to meet six conditions to secure continued DPA participation in his government (reftel). DPA and VMRO accounts of the horse-trading that returned DPA to the coalition differ, but both confirmed that DPA is back in the government. Although it never reached the level of a real political crisis, this latest episode in the ongoing DPA-VMRO love-hate relationship showed a flailing Thaci gambling, and losing, on a bid to show his party is still a relevant factor in government, despite DPA's low poll ratings and lack of concrete achievements. End summary. GAME OVER: THE PRODIGAL PARTY RETURNS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Eleven days after ethnic Albanian coalition partner DPA's announced departure from the multi-ethnic governing coalition headed by PM Gruevski's VMRO party (reftel),DPA's executive board decided late on March 23 that the party would return to the government. Both DPA and VMRO sources said the decision came after intensive talks between DPA President Thaci and PM Gruevski that led to an agreement addressing DPA's six demands (reftel),including a language law, expeditious recognition of Kosovo, use of the Albanian national flag in municipalities, among others. DPA'S RETURN: WE GOT A GOOD DEAL -------------- ¶3. (SBU) A senior DPA source confirmed to us on March 23 that an agreement between Gruevski and Thaci envisions the establishment within 10 days of three VMRO-DPA working groups on the use of languages, the status of former NLA fighters, and the law on flags. He added that the government also would draft and adopt an action plan for the equitable representation of eAlbanians in the state administration. The agreement foresees a review "in compliance with the existing laws in Macedonia" of four unindicted war crimes files returned to Macedonian jurisdiction from The Hague. (Note: Both of the main eAlbanian parties -- DPA and DUI -- 
contend that the four Hague cases should be covered by Macedonia's 2001 Amnesty Law. It is interesting that DPA did not call for the cases to be amnestied this time around, a retreat from its previous hardline position. End note.) The last DPA demand -- a swift recognition of Kosovo's independence -- remained open. VMRO: WE GOT DPA BACK FOR FREE... -------------- ¶4. (C) In a separate meeting with us March 24, the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff dismissed DPA's claim that the two sides had agreed to establish working groups on Thaci's six demands. He told us that the two leaders had only "agreed in general" to keep working to address DPA's concerns, but without committing to anything concrete. He added that the VMRO Executive Board had easily voted the evening of March 23 to accept DPA's offer to return to the coalition fold, with VMRO members making light of Thaci's unsuccessful attempt to pressure PM Gruevski into making real concessions on the six demands. SACRIFICIAL LAMB -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In the meantime, Thaci also accepted the resignation of DPA's Imer Aliu from his position as the Deputy Prime Minister responsible for the implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement. Until then DPA's highest ranking government official, the normally subdued Aliu became Thaci's sacrificial lamb after he made an incendiary appeal to SKOPJE 00000220 002 OF 002 eAlbanians to boycott Macedonian institutions. (Note: Thaci admitted to the Ambassador March 19 that he had authored Aliu's inflammatory remarks. End note.) COMMENT: ALL PAIN, NO GAIN... -------------- ¶6. (C) Thaci's latest failed attempt to highlight his party's relevance only ended up underscoring his near total lack of political sensitivity or tactical skill. He grossly miscalculated his own political weight and strategic priorities, promising his constituents more than he could deliver in demanding Gruevski meet his six demands before the NATO summit in early April. His quick about-face will expose him to ethnic Albanian opposition accusations that he is inconsistent and lacks fortitude, serious liabilities for any eAlbanian politician here. When Gruevski calls for early elections after the NATO summit, Thaci will be forced to compete on the empty promises of his "six demands," and the likelihood that most of them will not have been met by then. Furthermore, if Macedonia fails to receive a NATO invitation due to Greece's veto in the event Skopje and Athens do not reach a compromise on the name issue, Thaci will also be tarred with that brush. In short, Thaci's gambit is likely to turn out to be no substitute for concrete achievements and delivered promises that could rally his eAlbanian supporters. MILOVANOVIC