MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN LEADERS ON NATO AND THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000194 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE, USNATO FOR AMB NULAND E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK GR SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN LEADERS ON NATO AND THE NAME ISSUE REF: SKOPJE 186 Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In March 7 meetings with ethnic Albanian leaders Thaci, from junior governing coalition partner DPA, and Ahmeti, from DUI, the Charge stressed the importance of resolving the name dispute with Greece as the key to ensuring Macedonia receives a NATO membership invitation this April. Both Thaci and Ahmeti complained that PM Gruevski is uninterested in resolving the name issue. Thaci said DPA could be flexible in accepting almost any name compromise, as long as that led to NATO membership; Ahmeti was less flexible on the name formulation, ruling out variants that suggested Macedonia is a state dominated by the ethnic Macedonian population. Both leaders were convinced that Gruevski has already decided to head into early elections. Thaci said the DPA leadership was on the verge of deciding to leave the government, given Gruevski's refusal to meet DPA demands or to budge on the name issue. Ahmeti suggested Thaci's departure could lead to a caretaker government, excluding Gruevski's VMRO party, that would press urgently to close a name deal to gain a NATO invitation and plan for early elections in June or July. Both Thaci and Ahmeti predicted significant inter-ethnic conflict if Macedonia fails to receive a NATO invitation. We believe a caretaker government, should the government fall, would be hard-pressed to both reach agreement on the name dispute before the Bucharest Summit and assuage Alliance concerns that DPA's exit could signal incipient political instability in Macedonia. End summary. RESOLVE THE NAME DISPUTE, SUCCEED IN NATO BID -------------- ¶2. (C) Charge met separately with Menduh Thaci, president of ethnic Albanian DPA (junior governing coalition partner),and with Ali Ahmeti, president of the largest ethnic Albanian party DUI, on March 12 to brief them on the March 7 visit of Acting U/S Fried (reftel). The Charge noted that the name dispute with Greece remains the only outstanding obstacle to Macedonia's NATO membership bid. He stressed that the USG wants to be helpful in resolving the dispute through a negotiated settlement on a name for Macedonia to use internationally. A PM WITHOUT A VISION FOR COMPROMISE... -------------- ¶3. (C) Thaci said PM Gruevski was acting irresponsibly in refusing to show more flexibility in resolving the name dispute. Gruevski's proposal to hold a referendum on the name was, in Thaci's view, "catastrophic" and unhelpful, while to Ahmeti it was an "abrogation of a politician's responsibility" to take difficult decisions. Expressing their fear that they might be accused of "selling out Macedonia" if they speak out publicly in support of a name compromise, both Thaci and Ahmeti cast doubt on the Prime Minister's ability to manage the situation leading up to the Bucharest Summit. Ahmeti said that Gruevski clearly was "taking the country in the wrong direction." Both ethnic Albanian leaders characterized President Crvenkovski as more serious about finding a compromise. THACI: ALMOST ANY NAME IS OK, AS LONG AS WE GET NATO -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Thaci said ethnic Albanians wanted to support the government on the name issue, but the GOM had waited too long to consult with eAlbanian leaders on the matter. He said his party did "not care much about the name" that might be identified in any settlement, as long as the end result was NATO membership for Macedonia. He cautioned that he could not state that position publicly, however, for fear of being seen by eMacedonian leaders as a "back stabber." AHMETI: SOME NAMES UNACCEPTABLE -------------- SKOPJE 00000194 002 OF 003 ¶5. (C) Equally uneasy with open statements about support for a name compromise, Ahmeti said that DUI had certain red lines that limited the name variants they could accept. The names he ruled out were "Slavo-Macedonia," the "Macedonian State/Republic" and the "National Republic of Macedonia." In Ahmeti's view, these names suggest that Macedonia is a one-nation state, thus ignoring the existence of a large Albanian minority. (Note: "National" might be acceptable to Ahmeti with more time to explain the word's connotation in English. End note.) GRUEVSKI HEADS INTO EARLY ELECTIONS... -------------- ¶6. (C) Unfortunately, Thaci continued, PM Gruevski was set on calling early elections, from which he presumably thought he could emerge with a stronger majority. As a result, he was convinced that Gruevski was not interested in being constructive in further name negotiations. The Prime Minister was going down with his ship, Thaci said, but could not expect to "drag everyone down with him." If Macedonia failed to receive a NATO invitation and DPA was still a part of the coalition, Thaci added, he personally would be held responsible for that failure by eAlbanians. Ahmeti echoed Thaci's concerns; if Macedonia failed to receive a NATO invitation, "many hidden issues" would come to the fore, some of which could lead to violent incidents. ...THACI ABANDONS SHIP -------------- ¶7. (C) The Charge asked about media reports that Thaci was prepared to leave the governing coalition if Gruevski failed to meet six key DPA demands, including a language law and faster recognition of Kosovo independence. He pointed out that such a move, which would create the impression of political instability in Macedonia, would be unhelpful to Macedonia's NATO prospects in the run-up to the Bucharest Summit. ¶8. (C) Thaci said he was aware of the difficulty leaving the government would pose for the country's NATO bid. He said he could not, however, remain allied with a Prime Minister who was being unconstructive on the name issue and was jeopardizing Macedonia's NATO prospects in the process. He could not abandon his responsibilities to his eAlbanian electorate, who overwhelmingly favor NATO membership. As a consequence, DPA leaders would decide the same evening (March 12) to leave the government. He said he recently had told Gruevski that he understood the PM's concerns about the name and Macedonian identity, but pointed out to the PM that Gruevski had been denying eAlbanians in Macedonia their own identity by refusing to compromise on a language law. ¶9. (C) With DPA out of government, Thaci said, Gruevski would lose his parliamentary majority and either create a new majority, or resign and call early elections. Thaci said he had spoken the day before with eAlbanian opposition DUI leader Ali Ahmeti, who had assured him that DUI would not enter into talks with Gruevski about a post-election coalition. Ahmeti confirmed that assertion, telling Charge that DUI "will not be Gruevski's spare tire." He said he had encouraged Thaci to leave the government and let Gruevski's government fall. Ahmeti concluded that "with Gruevski at the helm, Macedonia cannot move forward." A CARETAKER GOVERNMENT TO SAVE MACEDONIA... -------------- ¶10. (C) Ahmeti confidently predicted that, if Thaci left Gruevski's coalition, the government would topple immediately. Once that happened, Ahmeti thought a broad coalition caretaker government could take over and pursue a simple, three-point platform: NATO accession with a compromise on the name, May 29 implementation, and planning for early elections in June or July. Ahmeti pledged to consult with the U.S. on every aspect of such a wide coalition. He concluded that "if the Prime Minister does not want to take the responsibility, then the whole political community has to do that jointly." SKOPJE 00000194 003 OF 003 COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Thaci has threatened several times in the past to exit the governing coalition, without effect. This time, we believe he is serious about following through. He clearly does not want to face an angry eAlbanian electorate in the event Macedonia fails to reach a name compromise and Greece exercises its veto, so jumping ship makes political sense to him at this time. Although that could result in a successful vote of no confidence, toppling Gruevski's government, there may not be enough time before the Bucharest Summit to form a broad coalition caretaker government and negotiate a compromise on the name dispute with Greece, while convincing Alliance members that the DPA exit was not a sign of incipient political instability in the country. A tall order to fill against a swiftly running clock. NAVRATIL