MACEDONIA: CONSTRUCTIVELY LAYING THE GROUNDWORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000143 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK GR SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: CONSTRUCTIVELY LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR COMPROMISE ON THE NAME REF: SKOPJE 140 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The government is laying the groundwork for public acceptance of a compromise on the most recent Nimetz name proposal (reftel). In an encouraging break with the past, it has moved a giant step away from its dual-name position toward acceptance of a name for use in international organizations. PM Gruevski continues to insist final agreement would be subject to approval by referendum, while other political parties indicate they would oppose that step. The government will not accept use of the "international name" for Macedonian passports or when signing multilateral treaties, and likewise will not agree to the UN "suggesting" that other countries use that name for bilateral relations. Overall, the Macedonian position has shifted from possible rejection of the Nimetz package to willingness actively to find a solution through engagement in the process. Both the President and PM Gruevski will work with other parties today and tomorrow to build political consensus for the government's compromise approach. End summary. "HUGE STEP FORWARD": MOVING AWAY FROM DUAL NAME POSITION -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Following the leak of the most recent Nimetz proposal (reftel) to the Greek press on 2/20, the Macedonian state leadership has carefully leaked details on its side to use local press to lay the groundwork for a compromise on the name issue. The daily Vecer, which is closely aligned with PM Gruevski's government and would normally be expected in screaming headlines to denounce the Nimetz package, in its 2/21 cover story calmly couched the choice for Skopje as being between one of two name modifiers (Independent, Democratic) and the despised FYROM for use in international organizations. ¶3. (U) Vecer, as well as the tabloid Vest, suggested for the first time publicly that Macedonia could go beyond its dual-name approach to resolve the name issue, which Macedonia's Name Negotiator Amb. Dimitrov accurately characterized to us as a "huge step forward" in the government's position. Vecer pointed out that either of the two name modifiers -- Independent or Democratic -- could be used without negatively influencing the country's national sovereignty and identity, a position echoed by prominent media commentators, while noting that either modifier could be used without requiring a change in the country's Constitution. REFERENDUM QUID PRO NATO QUO -------------- ¶4. (U) Vecer also noted that Macedonia's state leadership agrees that any change in the name for international usage would need to be approved by public referendum, provided Greece accepted one of the two name modifiers as the "final" solution to the name dispute. Other dailies linked a positive referendum outcome to a Greek commitment to support Macedonia's NATO bid. Vecer's separate piece on a possible referendum quoted PM Gruevski as saying that "We will clarify what is positive and what is negative (about the proposal)", echoing President Crvenkovski's suggestion for a way forward in his meeting with the Ambassador two days earlier (reftel). REDLINES: PASSPORTS, BILATERAL RECOGNITION -------------- ¶5. (U) Most local media highlighted as non-starters the Nimetz proposal's requirement that a new international name would be used for Macedonian passports, and its provision that the UN would suggest other countries consider using that name for bilateral purposes. NO ANTI-GREEK RHETORIC, VIOLENCE CONDEMNED BY ALL -------------- -------------- SKOPJE 00000143 002 OF 002 ¶6. (U) The bulk of media reporting has been surprisingly free of anti-Greek rhetoric or inflammatory comments, with most stories providing straightforward coverage of the Nimetz proposal. Vecer alleged that a demonstration against the Greek position on the name staged the evening of 2/19 in front of the Greek Liaison Mission here had been orchestrated by the SDSM opposition party, and underlined that the MOI was pursuing charges against the organizers of the protest, which had resulted in some light property damage to the Greek facilities. Local media also reported the statements of major parties here all condemning the violence against the Greek mission. FROM REJECTION TO ENGAGEMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador the evening of 2/20, Name Negotiator Nikola Dimitrov said the GOM had moved from seriously contemplating rejecting the Nimetz proposal outright, to a position of engagement in the process. The government wanted to carefully delineate the scope of usage of the international name, limiting it to use in international organizations only. He said the proposal would be made "very public" in order to marginalize "the extreme elements" in Macedonian society. The GOM's counterproposal would contain very firm "redlines" that would reflect Macedonia's "best and final offer." Contrary to the Vecer press account, Dimitrov said both he and the President opposed a referendum to decide on the name issue. ¶8. (C) Dimitrov said he would draft by 2/22 a general political statement describing the Macedonian position to the Nimetz proposal, which would be based on President Crvenkovski's and PM Gruevski's consultations with other Macedonian political leaders to build a consensus for that position. By 2/25, he aimed to complete a more detailed description of the Macedonian approach that would be shared with Nimetz and the USG. COMMENT: LEADERS PREPARING THE PUBLIC -------------- ¶9. (C) By going public with the positive and negative elements of the Nimetz proposal, the government is aiming to build public support for ridding the country of the FYROM acronym in exchange for either Independent or Democratic (Republic of Macedonia),while signaling early on the elements of the package beyond it which it deems it cannot go and still successfully manage public opinion. By subjecting the entire Nimetz package (which the government considers deeply flawed) to public scrutiny, the government appears to be trying to present a "worst case scenario," so that walking back from that scenario toward a compromise on what it views as the positive elements of the proposal eventually can be portrayed to the media and citizens as a political victory for Macedonia, despite the fact that it means giving up Skopje's original dual-name position. MILOVANOVIC