SINGAPORE ACADEMICS: ASEAN GOING THROUGH A

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SINGAPORE 001299 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MTS - M. COPPOLA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEAN PINR SN SUBJECT: SINGAPORE ACADEMICS: ASEAN GOING THROUGH A CRITICAL PERIOD REF: SINGAPORE 1285 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: ASEAN leaders have yet to hold substantive discussions on the financial crisis, and ASEAN is in danger of being marginalized due to its lack of concerted action in a number of areas, academics at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) told U.S. Ambassador for ASEAN Affairs Scot Marciel and Ambassador Herbold on December 4. The academics also warned that mainland Southeast Asian countries are increasingly gravitating towards China, and that a robust U.S. presence is needed to balance China's growing influence. In a separate December 3 lunch hosted by Ambassador Herbold, Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) ASEAN officials said that while ASEAN integration is proceeding, there has been backsliding on implementation of the ASEAN FTA in several countries. MTI added that many ASEAN members feel that U.S. engagement with ASEAN is not where it should be. In a separate December 3 meeting, regional financial analysts were generally downbeat over the near-term economic prospects for the Southeast Asia region and saw continued declines in exports and slow economic growth, if not outright contraction, for some countries. In a meeting at AmCham, members told Ambassador Marciel that companies in the region have been hit hard by the financial crisis, and that a scarcity of credit is the biggest cause for concern. AmCham members suggested that if a major U.S. firm such as Citibank were to collapse, there would be significant political fallout throughout the region. AmCham members also noted that expats appeared to be leaving Singapore in significant numbers. End Summary. ASEAN at a Crossroads -------------- ¶2. (SBU) ASEAN needs to get its act together, as the organization is in danger of quickly becoming irrelevant, Dr. Chin Kin Wah, Deputy Director of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) told Ambassador for ASEAN Affairs Scot Marciel and Ambassador Herbold in a December 4 roundtable meeting with several ISEAS academics in Singapore. In the past, ASEAN could be counted on to facilitate meetings between Asia's leaders. However, during the current financial crisis, the Plus Three component (China, South Korea and Japan) of ASEAN Plus Three has met without ASEAN and, except for a brief meeting on the margins of the Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM) held in Beijing in October, ASEAN's leadership has not yet held discussions addressing the financial crisis, Chin lamented. Ambassador Marciel acknowledged Professor Chin's concern, noting that ASEAN does not have a reputation as an organization that gets things done, and when governments want to get things done quickly, they rarely look to ASEAN. ¶3. (SBU) Ambassador Marciel noted that the human rights situation in Burma continues to deteriorate, and that the Burmese regime's abuses clearly violate ASEAN's Charter. He expressed dismay that not one of ASEAN's member countries has publicly criticized the Burmese regime for its actions. ISEAS Director Ambassador Kesavapany responded that ASEAN is facing a critical period, with the worsening human rights situation in Burma, Thailand seemingly falling apart, and racial and religious tension simmering under the surface in Malaysia. Ambassador Kesavapany expressed hope that the new U.S. Administration, would act to open up new opportunities for multilateral discussions and cooperation in the region. The Pull of China and the Need for a U.S. Presence -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Ambassador Kesavapany said the mainland Southeast Asia states, especially Burma, Laos and Cambodia, but even Thailand, are increasingly gravitating towards China. Of the mainland states, only Vietnam is ardently resisting Chinese influence. Ambassador Kesavapany said that U.S. influence in the region is needed to counter China and keep these mainland states from "breaking away." ¶5. (SBU) Dr. Ian Storey observed that China has increased its assertiveness in dealings with Southeast Asian countries, SINGAPORE 00001299 002 OF 003 especially in regards to oil and gas concessions in the South China Sea. He reiterated a view expressed by several of the ISEAS professors that the United States appears to be pulling back from the region. Ambassador Marciel responded that the United States Government remains deeply engaged on multiple fronts. For example, the United States gives 600 million USD per year in assistance to Asia, with approximately 90 percent slated for Southeast Asia. U.S. exports to Southeast Asia are roughly equal to U.S. exports to China, Ambassador Marciel noted. Ambassador Kesavapany expressed surprise at the numbers and suggested ISEAS hold a U.S.-ASEAN workshop or seminar to highlight the U.S. involvement in Southeast Asia. Southern Thailand -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Dr. Storey told Ambassador Marciel that Thailand's government is embroiled in its own political turmoil and is therefore unable to pay proper attention to the ongoing conflict in Southern Thailand. Dr. Storey said the insurgency in Southern Thailand has many parallels with the insurgency which previously took place in Algeria and said the area has become increasingly vulnerable to external involvement. Climate Change -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Michael Robinson noted that climate change issues, such as drought and rising sea levels, are looming as a major problem for Southeast Asia. Except for Indonesia, most countries in the region continue to turn a blind eye to the problem, he said. ASEAN Economic Integration Improving, U.S. Falling Behind -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Ms. Sulaimah Mahmood, Director of the ASEAN Division at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, told Ambassador Marciel in a December 3 meeting that ASEAN has made progress toward its 2015 target of an integrated ASEAN Economic Community. Member states have improved ASEAN's Free Trade Agreement (FTA) chapter on trade in goods, incorporated sanitary/phytosanitary and other elements, have improved the investment agreement, and are working on another package of services liberalization. She credited ASEAN's FTAs with other dialogue partners like Japan, China and Korea with helping to push integration within ASEAN. However, Sulaimah admitted that there has been backtracking on implementation of the ASEAN FTA agreement in some countries, on services in particular. ¶9. (SBU) Ambassador Marciel said that there was frustration on the U.S. side regarding the U.S.-ASEAN Trade and Investment Framework Agreement due to a lack of responsiveness from ASEAN to U.S. proposals. Sulaimah agreed that engagement was not where it should be given the high level of trade and investment between the United States and ASEAN. She said that Burma has been a thorny issue in U.S.-ASEAN relations, and noted that ASEAN is making progress with the European Union, despite its similar concerns over Burma. Sulaimah said that negotiations with other FTA partners had helped build relationships for ASEAN, and observed that the United States had much less frequent meetings with ASEAN counterparts. She suggested that at least one or two bilateral activities be held annually. Sulaimah also recommended that business links be enhanced, and suggested that U.S. multinationals pair up with ASEAN small and medium-sized enterprises for discussions of business issues with governments. ASEAN Economies Hit Hard by Slowdown -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In a roundtable discussion at a lunch hosted by Ambassador Herbold on December 3, regional financial analysts based in Singapore were generally downbeat over the near term economic prospects for the Southeast Asia region and saw SINGAPORE 00001299 003 OF 003 continued declines in exports and slow economic growth, if not outright contraction, for some countries. The analysts debated the prospects for Indonesia. Currency issues in Indonesia are fueling fears in the investment community that a balance of payments crisis may be in the cards, though one analyst predicted the country would muddle through the current economic malaise without a serious fall out. The analysts were negative on the prospects for reform in Malaysia, citing the lack of a meritocracy and the "bumiputra" policy that favors ethnic Malays as reasons for continued slow investment. In Singapore, the analysts saw the GOS's plans to move up the new budget to January and introduce new fiscal stimulus measures as positive signs, but noted the relative lack of influence the GOS could bring to bear to stimulate Singapore's export-dependent economy. AmCham: If Citigroup Goes Down, Watch Out -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The economic environment in Southeast Asia has never been more uncertain, American Chamber of Commerce members told Ambassador Marciel in a December 4 meeting. While members noted that some businesses, such as those involved in agriculture, are still thriving, many are facing hard times. The biggest concern is the diminished availability of credit, one member said. Many industries have been hurt, and there is a growing realization that the hope that China would pick up the slack had been misplaced. The shipping industry has "fallen off a cliff here, " one member said. While there has been no political fallout yet, "if Citigroup or Goldman Sachs go down, it would have a major political impact throughout the region," with many perhaps blaming the United States for their economic woes, one member said. ¶12. (SBU) AmCham Chairman Steve Okun said anecdotal evidence compiled so far indicates that expatriates are leaving Singapore in significant numbers. For example, two years ago, expats had difficulties placing their children in their schools of choice; the Singapore American School (SAS) had a long waitlist and implemented a U.S. passport-only policy for potential enrollees. This policy has been rescinded and there no longer appears to be a waitlist at SAS. (NOTE: Container Security Initiative officials recently told a visiting staffdel that containers headed to the United States had dropped from 14,000 to 10,500, and that during screening, it is apparent that many of the containers still going are filled with American citizens' household goods. End Note.) ¶13. (SBU) AmCham members noted a 12-15 percent increase in restructuring among Singapore-based companies over the last six months. While consulting companies have been especially hard-hit, outsourcing has gone up considerably for larger firms, they said. AmCham members expect the situation to worsen over the next six months. ¶14. (U) Ambassador Marciel cleared this cable. Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm HERBOLD