REPORTS OF MAJOR DROUGHT IN CHINA'S NORTHEAST ARE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHENYANG 000056 SIPDIS DEPT PLEASE PASS TO DEPT OF AGRICULTURE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2018 TAGS: CH EAGR ECON ETRD PGOV SUBJECT: REPORTS OF MAJOR DROUGHT IN CHINA'S NORTHEAST ARE ALL WET REF: SHENYANG 00252 Classified By: Consul General Stephen Wickman E.O. 12958: B and D ¶1. (C) Summary. Over the past six weeks, China's Xinhua News Agency has published numerous reports of serious drought in Northeast China, many of which were picked up by western wire services. Econoff,s queries about the drought during a series of trips around the region, however, met with responses that ranged from muted denial to outright laughter. Our personal observations throughout the region likewise revealed no shortage of surface water, with rivers and reservoirs nearly full. The reasons behind Xinhua's reporting remain unclear, but the reports do not appear to be related to any real shortage of rainfall or surface water in this district. End Summary -------------- The Sky Is Not Falling -------------- ¶2. (U) In early March, Xinhua began a steady drumbeat of reports underscoring Northeast China's lack of rainfall during 2008, initially describing it as "the worst drought in five years" and, in subsequent reports, "the worst in fifty years." Cursory observation however, did not reveal any unusual weather pattern. Northeast China typically experiences very little rainfall in the first quarter of each calendar year. Xinhua's reports, which cite China's National Meteorological Agency as a source and indicate rainfall well below normal, conflict with U.S. meteorological observations that put rainfall at or above normal for the entire region. ¶3. (C) In an attempt to locate possible pockets of drought, Econoff traveled extensively throughout Northeast China, speaking with agricultural officials to determine the potential impact of the drought on Northeast China's grain production. At every stop, spring planting was proceeding on a normal schedule. Only in Jinzhou was any shortage of surface water reported, although the cause of the problem was a mystery. The Chief of the local Agriculture Bureau said there had been plenty of rain and the river should have water in it, but for some reason the flow had been stopped upstream. He explained that, normally, local farmers would be drawing water from the river, but now they will have to rely on wells until water is released. -------------- Water, Water Everywhere �00A; -------------- ¶4. (C) The story in Chaoyang ) abutting Inner Mongolia -- was much different. The most recent reports from Xinhua indicated severe drought in the area, with many people lacking water for cooking and drinking. However, officials from Chaoyang's Water Bureau responded with laughter when asked about the drought's impact and their plans for dealing with it. They said that although some local residents are being assisted in putting in new wells, water is readily available and they are not suffering from any drought. ¶5. (C) On 23 April, China's central government released a warning stating that fire risk was extremely high in Northeast China due to persistent drought. Visits to northern Jilin Province again painted another very different picture. Both the Tumen and Songhua rivers were nearly bank full, and the associated reservoirs were above 80 percent of capacity. During a visit to Songhua Lake, a large reservoir and hydroelectric facility in Jilin City, local officials pointed out that turbines were in full operation and all six flood gates were partially open. He said that, "with current water levels, if we opened the gates fully, downtown Harbin would flood in a matter of hours." ¶6. (C) Similarly, Agriculture officials in the ethnic Korean enclave of Yanji expressed surprise at the notion of a drought. While noting that Yanbian Prefecture is not a major agricultural region, they described their water supplies as more than adequate. Yanji agriculture officials added that the Tumen River was at normal levels for mid-March and local farmers had no complaints about water supplies. -------------- Divining the Source -------------- ¶7. (C) It is unclear what the motivation might be for SHENYANG 00000056 002 OF 002 persistent reports of drought in Northeast China, but it does not appear to be related to a lack of rainfall. One possibility is that Beijing is trying to lower expectations for this year's harvest in order to explain shortages in the domestic market. As reported reftel, Beijing recently directed shipments of corn from government stores in Northeast China to China's South and substantially overstated harvest amounts last year and had to release grain from government stores to maintain price stability during the Spring Festival. Officials in Jilin, moreover, told Econoff they had no intention of adhering to Beijing's admonishment to refrain from using food for ethanol production this year, and during this latest trip Jilin Development Zone officials said they expect to convert Jilin's entire 2008 corn crop to ethanol at a newly opening facility in their zone. All of this means that less grain is available to protect China's domestic market from inflationary pressures. WICKMAN