NORTHEAST CHINA LEADERS TO WATCH (PT. 1): LIAONING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHENYANG 000044

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2028
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON CH
SUBJECT: NORTHEAST CHINA LEADERS TO WATCH (PT. 1): LIAONING
AND JILIN

REF: A. (A) 07 SHENYANG 245

B. (B) 07 SHENYANG 220

C. (C) 07 SHENYANG 47

Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN B. WICKMAN.
REASONS: 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Northeast China is home to a number of
promising, up-and-coming officials worth watching as they
seek to prove their political mettle in "revitalizing" this
strategic corner of the PRC. Communist Youth League
lineages remain a common denominator in most, but not all,
profilees. Recent leadership changes have given all three
of Northeast China's governorships, and one party-chief
slot, to Youth Leaguers, though contacts generally caution
against overestimating this. Li Keqiang's ascension to
Beijing last fall unleashed substantial turnover in
Liaoning Province's highest echelons, but attendant
internal jockeying may have left the leadership slightly
less cohesive. Farther north, Jilin Province experienced
less top-level turnover, but both Party Secretary Wang Min
and Governor Han Changfu--two of several promising
officials there--look to be serious candidates for possible
national office. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) This is the first in a two-part series on
leadership dynamics in northeast China over the past year,
with a particular emphasis on rising stars likely bound for
higher, possibly national, office. Part one focuses on
Liaoning and Jilin provinces, part two on Heilongjiang
Province, farther north.

LIAONING AND THE POST-LI KEQIANG LEADERSHIP
--------------

3. (SBU) LI'S SUCCESSKR, A.I. Liaoning Party Secretary
(PS) LI Keqiang's long-anticipated elevation to the
Politburo Standing Committee in fall 2007 unleashed a
fairly substantial leadership turnover in the province's
highest echelons, more so than at corresponding levels in
Jilin and Heilongjiang province. Beijing tipped Liaoning
Governor ZHANG Wenyue--in a high-level Xinjiang posting
before his transfer to northeast China--to replace Li as
Party chief of the booming province, which continued to
blaze the path to "northeast revitalization," clocking
official "GDP" growth of 14.5 percent in 2007, well ahead
of the national average. Post contacts widely regard the
dour 64-year-old rumored friend of Premier Wen Jiabao--both
shared the same influential patron in younger years--as a
placeholder, given his impending compulsory retirement at

65. Zhang became a target of popular dissatisfaction when
the collapse of a massive pyramid scheme triggered
significant protests in Liaoning (refs A-B) toward the end
of 2007. But unconfirmed rumors of his son's involvement
in the affair seem to have had no measurable effect on
Zhang's political fortunes.


4. (C) A GOVERNOR CHALLENGED? Succeeding Zhang as Governor
is Shenyang Party Secretary CHEN Zhenggao, a polished 56-
year-old Youth Leaguer who spent his formative professional
years in Dalian. Chen worked his way up the ranks of the
Dalian Communist Youth League (CYL) and municipal
government in the 1980s and 1990s before transferring to
Shenyang in late 1997. Five years as a Liaoning vice
governor eventually earned him an appointment as PS of
Shenyang in 2005. In private, we have found Chen--who has
one daughter currently in Syracuse completing a Master's--
pleasant, business-savvy, eager to practice his English and
comfortable sounding off on foreign-policy issues.
Shenyang residents generally do not hold Chen in the
highest regard, however, and blame him for weak economic
growth wrought by an overemphasis on (inflationary) real-
estate development during his tenure as PS of the seven-
million-strong provincial capital. High-level Party
insiders in Liaoning tell us Liaoning Deputy PS LUO Lin
waged a bruising campaign for the governorship; Chen
ultimately prevailed, but contacts say Luo Lin's influence-
-forged through his hand in cadre assignments and
promotions while he was chief of Liaoning's powerful
Organization Bureau--has left Chen challenged internally.


5. (C) A POWERFUL DEPUTY PS. Deputy PS Luo Lin is chief
among Liaoning Province's crop of up-and-coming younger
officials worth watching (Luo is profiled in ref C). A 53-
year-old from Dalian--a political proving ground for a
number of leading Liaoning officials these days--with deep
provincial and some national CYL experience, Luo is a
consummate Party insider who continued to consolidate his
power while working with Li Keqiang and Zhang Wenyue.
During the second half of 2007, he profited by informally
cadging his old portfolio at the Organization Bureau for

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several months after the departure of SU Shulin--the 44-
year-old former PetroChina executive and rising star
profiled in ref C--who was tapped to lead Sinopec.
Contacts say Luo had some important national support, but
nowhere near enough, to succeed Zhang Wenyue as governor.
Now, however, from his governor-level position as Deputy PS
and from his new perch as Chairman of the Liaoning Chinese
People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC),Luo has
the administrative weight and ability to contest Chen
Zhenggao, if necessary. Luo's work experience over the
past three decades is almost exclusively Liaoning-centric,
but he remains an ambitious leader with many years of
political life ahead of him.

JILIN: FOUR TO WATCH
--------------

6. (SBU) PS AND GOV BOTH REMAIN...FOR NOW? Jilin Province
experienced less leadership turnover at its highest levels
than Liaoning and Heilongjiang over the past year, as both
PS WANG Min and Governor HAN Changfu remained in place.
The departure of four vice governors in late 2007 and early
2008, however, infused new blood into an administration
still badly lagging its northern and southern provincial
neighbors in "revitalization" efforts, its theoretically
impressive official "GDP" growth of 16 percent in 2007
notwithstanding.


7. (C) WANG MIN AND HAN CHANGFU. In the lead-up to the
17th Party Congress late last year, both Jilin's PS and
Governor, initially dispatched for their economic-
development experience, were rumored to be bound for more
prosperous climes. PS Wang Min, 54, a former academic who
burnished his national credentials as PS of Suzhou--where
between 2002 and 2004 he earned acclaim for his "Suzhou
Model" of economic development--was rumored to be a top
candidate to replace BO Xilai as Minister of Commerce in
Beijing. Jilin officials told us that Wang, an Anhui
native and former governor of both Jiangsu and Jilin, was
"not interested" in the Beijing job, though we have found
this unconvincing. With experience in two disparate
provinces and a good national reputation, Wang's political
future seems bright. So, too, does that of Han Changfu,
whom unconfirmed rumor had it was considered as a possible
governor of Guangdong Province. The 54-year-old former
national CYL Central Committee member, Executive Vice
Minister of Agriculture, and specialist on rural
development (see ref C for profile) has had his hands full
in Jilin. Growth is up, but structural problems will make
it hard for him to shine like Wang Min did in Suzhou.
Still, Han's provincial-level administrative and national-
level economic-policymaking experience--including a stint
as Deputy Director of the Central Finance Leading Group's
General Office in the later 1990s--makes him a compelling
candidate for a return to national office.


8. (C) In private, we have found Wang Min polished and
business-savvy, but "all-business." Lower-level officials
speak highly of him and describe this former mechanical-
engineering professor and Vice President of the Nanjing
Aeronautical Institute as economically progressive, open-
minded and refreshingly less egotistical than many other
leaders of his stature. Mentioned repeatedly by local
officials has been Wang's inclination to grant localities
decision-making autonomy, especially for investment
projects. By contrast, we have found Han more bookish and
reserved. Lower-level officials do not speak as positively
about him as they do about Wang Min, and tend to describe
Han as relatively more economically conservative, though
eager to concentrate on the "minsheng" (people's
livelihood) issues that are the hallmark of the Hu
Jintao/Wen Jiabao administration.


9. (SBU) ZHU YANFENG. The notable standout in Jilin's new
vice-gubernatorial cohort is ZHU Yanfeng, the 47-year-old
former General Manager of First Auto Works (FAW)--one of
China's largest automobile manufacturers, and Jilin
Province's largest state-owned enterprise--unexpectedly
tapped as Executive Vice Governor. A number of former FAW
executives now serve in senior Jilin political postings,
but none in recent memory have secured a position so
senior. Zhu entered FAW in the early 1980s as a technician
and gradually worked his way up the ranks, becoming General
Manager in 1999. Over the next eight years, Zhu
concentrated on building FAW's independent design capacity
and brand recognition; by the end of 2007, FAW ranked 385
in the Fortune 500. A Central Committee alternate since
2002, Zhu--now number two in the Jilin government
hierarchy--is arguably being groomed for national political
office.


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10. (C) DENG KAI. This young Han Chinese Youth Leaguer,
49, has been Party Secretary of the politically-sensitive
Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, in the PRC-DPRK
borderlands, since 2004. His experience has mostly been
Jilin-centric, but he has moved through a succession of
powerful portfolios: Deputy Secretary of the Jilin CYL,
Deputy Director of the province's Organization Bureau, and
head of its Propaganda Bureau. Prospects for promotion out
of Yanbian are bright: just about all past top Yanbian
leaders have been rewarded handsomely with high-level
provincial or national jobs (e.g., Zhang Dejiang eventually
became PS of Guangdong and a Vice Premier; Tian Xueren
became Jilin's Executive Vice Governor). In private, we
have found Deng at ease, confident, and somewhat
forthcoming. Experience beyond Jilin Province would do him
well to remain competitive nationally, but given his young
age, solid provincial experience, and the recent promotion
patterns out of Yanbian, Deng looks to set to continue his
rise.
WICKMAN