NORTHEAST CHINA LEADERS TO WATCH (PT. 1): LIAONING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHENYANG 000044 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2028 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON CH SUBJECT: NORTHEAST CHINA LEADERS TO WATCH (PT. 1): LIAONING AND JILIN REF: A. (A) 07 SHENYANG 245 ¶B. (B) 07 SHENYANG 220 ¶C. (C) 07 SHENYANG 47 Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN B. WICKMAN. REASONS: 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Northeast China is home to a number of promising, up-and-coming officials worth watching as they seek to prove their political mettle in "revitalizing" this strategic corner of the PRC. Communist Youth League lineages remain a common denominator in most, but not all, profilees. Recent leadership changes have given all three of Northeast China's governorships, and one party-chief slot, to Youth Leaguers, though contacts generally caution against overestimating this. Li Keqiang's ascension to Beijing last fall unleashed substantial turnover in Liaoning Province's highest echelons, but attendant internal jockeying may have left the leadership slightly less cohesive. Farther north, Jilin Province experienced less top-level turnover, but both Party Secretary Wang Min and Governor Han Changfu--two of several promising officials there--look to be serious candidates for possible national office. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) This is the first in a two-part series on leadership dynamics in northeast China over the past year, with a particular emphasis on rising stars likely bound for higher, possibly national, office. Part one focuses on Liaoning and Jilin provinces, part two on Heilongjiang Province, farther north. LIAONING AND THE POST-LI KEQIANG LEADERSHIP -------------- ¶3. (SBU) LI'S SUCCESSKR, A.I. Liaoning Party Secretary (PS) LI Keqiang's long-anticipated elevation to the Politburo Standing Committee in fall 2007 unleashed a fairly substantial leadership turnover in the province's highest echelons, more so than at corresponding levels in Jilin and Heilongjiang province. Beijing tipped Liaoning Governor ZHANG Wenyue--in a high-level Xinjiang posting before his transfer to northeast China--to replace Li as Party chief of the booming province, which continued to blaze the path to "northeast revitalization," clocking official "GDP" growth of 14.5 percent in 2007, well ahead of the national average. Post contacts widely regard the dour 64-year-old rumored friend of Premier Wen Jiabao--both shared the same influential patron in younger years--as a placeholder, given his impending compulsory retirement at ¶65. Zhang became a target of popular dissatisfaction when the collapse of a massive pyramid scheme triggered significant protests in Liaoning (refs A-B) toward the end of 2007. But unconfirmed rumors of his son's involvement in the affair seem to have had no measurable effect on Zhang's political fortunes. ¶4. (C) A GOVERNOR CHALLENGED? Succeeding Zhang as Governor is Shenyang Party Secretary CHEN Zhenggao, a polished 56- year-old Youth Leaguer who spent his formative professional years in Dalian. Chen worked his way up the ranks of the Dalian Communist Youth League (CYL) and municipal government in the 1980s and 1990s before transferring to Shenyang in late 1997. Five years as a Liaoning vice governor eventually earned him an appointment as PS of Shenyang in 2005. In private, we have found Chen--who has one daughter currently in Syracuse completing a Master's-- pleasant, business-savvy, eager to practice his English and comfortable sounding off on foreign-policy issues. Shenyang residents generally do not hold Chen in the highest regard, however, and blame him for weak economic growth wrought by an overemphasis on (inflationary) real- estate development during his tenure as PS of the seven- million-strong provincial capital. High-level Party insiders in Liaoning tell us Liaoning Deputy PS LUO Lin waged a bruising campaign for the governorship; Chen ultimately prevailed, but contacts say Luo Lin's influence- -forged through his hand in cadre assignments and promotions while he was chief of Liaoning's powerful Organization Bureau--has left Chen challenged internally. ¶5. (C) A POWERFUL DEPUTY PS. Deputy PS Luo Lin is chief among Liaoning Province's crop of up-and-coming younger officials worth watching (Luo is profiled in ref C). A 53- year-old from Dalian--a political proving ground for a number of leading Liaoning officials these days--with deep provincial and some national CYL experience, Luo is a consummate Party insider who continued to consolidate his power while working with Li Keqiang and Zhang Wenyue. During the second half of 2007, he profited by informally cadging his old portfolio at the Organization Bureau for SHENYANG 00000044 002 OF 003 several months after the departure of SU Shulin--the 44- year-old former PetroChina executive and rising star profiled in ref C--who was tapped to lead Sinopec. Contacts say Luo had some important national support, but nowhere near enough, to succeed Zhang Wenyue as governor. Now, however, from his governor-level position as Deputy PS and from his new perch as Chairman of the Liaoning Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC),Luo has the administrative weight and ability to contest Chen Zhenggao, if necessary. Luo's work experience over the past three decades is almost exclusively Liaoning-centric, but he remains an ambitious leader with many years of political life ahead of him. JILIN: FOUR TO WATCH -------------- ¶6. (SBU) PS AND GOV BOTH REMAIN...FOR NOW? Jilin Province experienced less leadership turnover at its highest levels than Liaoning and Heilongjiang over the past year, as both PS WANG Min and Governor HAN Changfu remained in place. The departure of four vice governors in late 2007 and early 2008, however, infused new blood into an administration still badly lagging its northern and southern provincial neighbors in "revitalization" efforts, its theoretically impressive official "GDP" growth of 16 percent in 2007 notwithstanding. ¶7. (C) WANG MIN AND HAN CHANGFU. In the lead-up to the 17th Party Congress late last year, both Jilin's PS and Governor, initially dispatched for their economic- development experience, were rumored to be bound for more prosperous climes. PS Wang Min, 54, a former academic who burnished his national credentials as PS of Suzhou--where between 2002 and 2004 he earned acclaim for his "Suzhou Model" of economic development--was rumored to be a top candidate to replace BO Xilai as Minister of Commerce in Beijing. Jilin officials told us that Wang, an Anhui native and former governor of both Jiangsu and Jilin, was "not interested" in the Beijing job, though we have found this unconvincing. With experience in two disparate provinces and a good national reputation, Wang's political future seems bright. So, too, does that of Han Changfu, whom unconfirmed rumor had it was considered as a possible governor of Guangdong Province. The 54-year-old former national CYL Central Committee member, Executive Vice Minister of Agriculture, and specialist on rural development (see ref C for profile) has had his hands full in Jilin. Growth is up, but structural problems will make it hard for him to shine like Wang Min did in Suzhou. Still, Han's provincial-level administrative and national- level economic-policymaking experience--including a stint as Deputy Director of the Central Finance Leading Group's General Office in the later 1990s--makes him a compelling candidate for a return to national office. ¶8. (C) In private, we have found Wang Min polished and business-savvy, but "all-business." Lower-level officials speak highly of him and describe this former mechanical- engineering professor and Vice President of the Nanjing Aeronautical Institute as economically progressive, open- minded and refreshingly less egotistical than many other leaders of his stature. Mentioned repeatedly by local officials has been Wang's inclination to grant localities decision-making autonomy, especially for investment projects. By contrast, we have found Han more bookish and reserved. Lower-level officials do not speak as positively about him as they do about Wang Min, and tend to describe Han as relatively more economically conservative, though eager to concentrate on the "minsheng" (people's livelihood) issues that are the hallmark of the Hu Jintao/Wen Jiabao administration. ¶9. (SBU) ZHU YANFENG. The notable standout in Jilin's new vice-gubernatorial cohort is ZHU Yanfeng, the 47-year-old former General Manager of First Auto Works (FAW)--one of China's largest automobile manufacturers, and Jilin Province's largest state-owned enterprise--unexpectedly tapped as Executive Vice Governor. A number of former FAW executives now serve in senior Jilin political postings, but none in recent memory have secured a position so senior. Zhu entered FAW in the early 1980s as a technician and gradually worked his way up the ranks, becoming General Manager in 1999. Over the next eight years, Zhu concentrated on building FAW's independent design capacity and brand recognition; by the end of 2007, FAW ranked 385 in the Fortune 500. A Central Committee alternate since 2002, Zhu--now number two in the Jilin government hierarchy--is arguably being groomed for national political office. SHENYANG 00000044 003 OF 003 ¶10. (C) DENG KAI. This young Han Chinese Youth Leaguer, 49, has been Party Secretary of the politically-sensitive Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, in the PRC-DPRK borderlands, since 2004. His experience has mostly been Jilin-centric, but he has moved through a succession of powerful portfolios: Deputy Secretary of the Jilin CYL, Deputy Director of the province's Organization Bureau, and head of its Propaganda Bureau. Prospects for promotion out of Yanbian are bright: just about all past top Yanbian leaders have been rewarded handsomely with high-level provincial or national jobs (e.g., Zhang Dejiang eventually became PS of Guangdong and a Vice Premier; Tian Xueren became Jilin's Executive Vice Governor). In private, we have found Deng at ease, confident, and somewhat forthcoming. Experience beyond Jilin Province would do him well to remain competitive nationally, but given his young age, solid provincial experience, and the recent promotion patterns out of Yanbian, Deng looks to set to continue his rise. WICKMAN