NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS: PRC OLYMPICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHENYANG 000038

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/CM, EAP/K, PRM

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS AFTER KOREAN UNIFICATION
TAGS: PREF PREL PINR PGOV KN KS CH
SUBJECT: NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS: PRC OLYMPICS
WORRIES; CHINESE RESEARCHER ON RECENT TRENDS

REF: 07 SHENYANG 229

Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN B. WICKMAN.
REASONS: 1.4(b)/(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Two Chinese provincial governments hosting
Olympics events this summer have enlisted Korea specialists
to investigate potential contingencies involving North
Korean border-crossers or activists that support them.
Scholars in Liaoning and Shandong have told us they are
keeping a close watch on U.S.-based NGOs active on DPRK
human-rights issues, among others. North Korean border-
crossings into China in early 2008 remain at levels similar
to last year, despite the acute agricultural difficulties
facing the DPRK over the past year, according to a Chinese
Government scholar whose research suggests that increasing
numbers of North Koreans wish to stay in China instead of
resettling in South Korea. END SUMMARY.

NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS AND OLYMPICS SECURITY
-------------- --------------

2. (C) Two provincial governments set to host Olympics
events this summer enlisted a number of government scholars
to investigate possible Olympics security problems,
including potential incidents involving North Korean
border-crossers or activists that support them. In
Shenyang, which will host some of the Olympics soccer
events in August, the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences'
LU Chao (STRICTLY PROTECT),a DPRK"expert who researches
North Korean border-crossers for the PRC Government, was
instructed by the Liaoning provincial government to examine
ROK- and U.S.-based human-rights groups active on North
Korean border-crosser issues. Lu told Poloff February 22
that he briefed the Liaoning provincial leadership, the
Liaoning Public Security Bureau and other government organs
on the circumstances of North Korean border-crossers in
Liaoning Province and northeast China more broadly.


3. (C) Another two scholars from Shandong Province, which
will host sailing events in Qingdao, were tasked with
exploring similar issues (see reftel for background).
While visiting Shenyang March 18, LI Chunwang (STRICTLY
PROTECT),Vice Director of Yantai University's East Asia
Research Institute, and SUN Jingquan (STRICTLY PROTECT),an
Associate Professor there, told Poloff they currently study
how the Shandong provincial government might prevent and/or
handle incidents involving North Korean border-crossers,
Falun Gong adherents and human-rights activists. Sun
pointed to recent events in Tibet as an example of the type
of "unpredictable" event the Shandong government is eager
to avoid. Both scholars claimed most potential "problems"
were likely to originate domestically. At the same time,
they were clearly fishing for the names of individual U.S.
journalists and news outlets planning to cover Shandong
during the Olympics; specific areas to which they might
seek to travel; and political stories in which they might
be interested.


4. (C) On the question of a potential border-crosser
related contingency in Shandong before or during the
Olympics, Li and Sun said they will recommend the Shandong
government emphasize early "intelligence" and "prevention"
to ensure that authorities can "quietly" make arrests out
of the public eye. Failing this, both claimed they will
advise against apprehending North Koreans publicly, for to
do otherwise might prove "embarrassing" for China and,
perhaps, a third country (in the event of an intrusion into
a diplomatic facility).

NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS IN EARLY 2008
--------------

5. (C) Into the first quarter of 2008, North Korean border-
crossings are still at the relatively low levels seen last
year, according to the Liaoning Academy of Social Science's
Lu, who in the past has claimed to have access to Chinese
statistics through research he conducts on the issue for
the Liaoning Government. Notable this year, he claimed, is
that overall numbers of North Koreans crossing into China

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remain low despite the "more severe" agricultural/other
problems besetting North Korea since last year (e.g.,
floods, fall-off in international aid). On repatriation
levels, Lu noted he has yet to see the final 2007 year-end
tallies, but he said they are relatively "low." Asked to
elaborate, he claimed "high" levels in recent years
involved "as many as three thousand" repatriations, while
"low" levels hovered around "one thousand or several
hundreds."


6. (C) Queried on recent trends, Lu claimed his research
suggests that, compared to earlier years, fewer and fewer
North Koreans now wish to resettle in the ROK after
crossing into China. Larger numbers now seek to stay in
China for an extended period. Some of the root causes of
this shift, he said, include the drop in ROKG resettlement
funds to pay North Koreans; greater interest in U.S.
resettlement following the publicity of the North Korean
Human Rights Act; the proximity of China to North Korea,
making contact with remaining family easier; and the
alienation encountered by North Koreans resettled in the
South. Lu emphasized the painful social isolation North
Koreans arriving in South Korea have discovered after being
released from the resettlement center at Hanawon. Lu
recounted the story of one North Korean he knows in
Shenyang who, because of what she experienced in the ROK
after successfully fleeing North Korea, moved back to China
after securing a South Korean passport. Today she works
for a South Korean firm in Shenyang, where Lu claims she is
more comfortable.


7. (C) Lu believes divergent North Korean domestic
perceptions of China and the ROK may also play a part. He
recalled the experience of another North Korean border-
crosser whom he met in Shenyang, where she now lives sub
rosa. Both her parents are Korean Workers Party (KWP)
officials still living in the DPRK who have to date
encountered no political difficulties, despite their
friends and neighbors knowing about the daughter's flight
to China. The North Korean told Lu that had she gone to
the ROK instead, her parents would have suffered severe
consequences because of the disparate perceptions of China
and the ROK in the North.
WICKMAN