NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS: PRC OLYMPICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHENYANG 000038 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/CM, EAP/K, PRM E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS AFTER KOREAN UNIFICATION TAGS: PREF PREL PINR PGOV KN KS CH SUBJECT: NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS: PRC OLYMPICS WORRIES; CHINESE RESEARCHER ON RECENT TRENDS REF: 07 SHENYANG 229 Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN B. WICKMAN. REASONS: 1.4(b)/(d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Two Chinese provincial governments hosting Olympics events this summer have enlisted Korea specialists to investigate potential contingencies involving North Korean border-crossers or activists that support them. Scholars in Liaoning and Shandong have told us they are keeping a close watch on U.S.-based NGOs active on DPRK human-rights issues, among others. North Korean border- crossings into China in early 2008 remain at levels similar to last year, despite the acute agricultural difficulties facing the DPRK over the past year, according to a Chinese Government scholar whose research suggests that increasing numbers of North Koreans wish to stay in China instead of resettling in South Korea. END SUMMARY. NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS AND OLYMPICS SECURITY -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Two provincial governments set to host Olympics events this summer enlisted a number of government scholars to investigate possible Olympics security problems, including potential incidents involving North Korean border-crossers or activists that support them. In Shenyang, which will host some of the Olympics soccer events in August, the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences' LU Chao (STRICTLY PROTECT),a DPRK"expert who researches North Korean border-crossers for the PRC Government, was instructed by the Liaoning provincial government to examine ROK- and U.S.-based human-rights groups active on North Korean border-crosser issues. Lu told Poloff February 22 that he briefed the Liaoning provincial leadership, the Liaoning Public Security Bureau and other government organs on the circumstances of North Korean border-crossers in Liaoning Province and northeast China more broadly. ¶3. (C) Another two scholars from Shandong Province, which will host sailing events in Qingdao, were tasked with exploring similar issues (see reftel for background). While visiting Shenyang March 18, LI Chunwang (STRICTLY PROTECT),Vice Director of Yantai University's East Asia Research Institute, and SUN Jingquan (STRICTLY PROTECT),an Associate Professor there, told Poloff they currently study how the Shandong provincial government might prevent and/or handle incidents involving North Korean border-crossers, Falun Gong adherents and human-rights activists. Sun pointed to recent events in Tibet as an example of the type of "unpredictable" event the Shandong government is eager to avoid. Both scholars claimed most potential "problems" were likely to originate domestically. At the same time, they were clearly fishing for the names of individual U.S. journalists and news outlets planning to cover Shandong during the Olympics; specific areas to which they might seek to travel; and political stories in which they might be interested. ¶4. (C) On the question of a potential border-crosser related contingency in Shandong before or during the Olympics, Li and Sun said they will recommend the Shandong government emphasize early "intelligence" and "prevention" to ensure that authorities can "quietly" make arrests out of the public eye. Failing this, both claimed they will advise against apprehending North Koreans publicly, for to do otherwise might prove "embarrassing" for China and, perhaps, a third country (in the event of an intrusion into a diplomatic facility). NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS IN EARLY 2008 -------------- ¶5. (C) Into the first quarter of 2008, North Korean border- crossings are still at the relatively low levels seen last year, according to the Liaoning Academy of Social Science's Lu, who in the past has claimed to have access to Chinese statistics through research he conducts on the issue for the Liaoning Government. Notable this year, he claimed, is that overall numbers of North Koreans crossing into China SHENYANG 00000038 002 OF 002 remain low despite the "more severe" agricultural/other problems besetting North Korea since last year (e.g., floods, fall-off in international aid). On repatriation levels, Lu noted he has yet to see the final 2007 year-end tallies, but he said they are relatively "low." Asked to elaborate, he claimed "high" levels in recent years involved "as many as three thousand" repatriations, while "low" levels hovered around "one thousand or several hundreds." ¶6. (C) Queried on recent trends, Lu claimed his research suggests that, compared to earlier years, fewer and fewer North Koreans now wish to resettle in the ROK after crossing into China. Larger numbers now seek to stay in China for an extended period. Some of the root causes of this shift, he said, include the drop in ROKG resettlement funds to pay North Koreans; greater interest in U.S. resettlement following the publicity of the North Korean Human Rights Act; the proximity of China to North Korea, making contact with remaining family easier; and the alienation encountered by North Koreans resettled in the South. Lu emphasized the painful social isolation North Koreans arriving in South Korea have discovered after being released from the resettlement center at Hanawon. Lu recounted the story of one North Korean he knows in Shenyang who, because of what she experienced in the ROK after successfully fleeing North Korea, moved back to China after securing a South Korean passport. Today she works for a South Korean firm in Shenyang, where Lu claims she is more comfortable. ¶7. (C) Lu believes divergent North Korean domestic perceptions of China and the ROK may also play a part. He recalled the experience of another North Korean border- crosser whom he met in Shenyang, where she now lives sub rosa. Both her parents are Korean Workers Party (KWP) officials still living in the DPRK who have to date encountered no political difficulties, despite their friends and neighbors knowing about the daughter's flight to China. The North Korean told Lu that had she gone to the ROK instead, her parents would have suffered severe consequences because of the disparate perceptions of China and the ROK in the North. WICKMAN