PRC-DPRK: NORTH KOREAN DIPLOMATS; FOOD SECURITY;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHENYANG 000150

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/K, EAP/CM, INR, PRM

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS AFTER KOREAN UNIFICATION
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF EAGR KN KS CH
SUBJECT: PRC-DPRK: NORTH KOREAN DIPLOMATS; FOOD SECURITY;
OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT IN SINUIJU; BORDER-CROSSERS

REF: SHENYANG 123

Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN B. WICKMAN.
REASONS: 1.4(b)/(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: North Korean diplomats in northeast China
did not, contrary to rumor, receive orders from Pyongyang
restricting their travel in October, and trade officials
recently recalled to Sinuiju reported no changes given them
in policy direction, say contacts. PRC security posture
appears little changed in Dandong, where customs and
border-patrol officials told contacts they have seen no
major change in PRC-DPRK interchange there. North Korea's
top diplomat in Shenyang estimates this year's harvest will
reach four million metric tons, said one contact; PRC Korea
experts dispute UN agencies' predictions of dire DPRK food
shortfalls this year. North Korea recently canceled its
participation in a PRC-DPRK border-trade expo slated for
late October. A Dandong trading firm is involved in
developing North Korea's Weihua Island, off the coast of
Sinuiju. Farther north in Jilin Province, China's
targeting of North Korean border-crossers reportedly
continues in Yanbian, where recent fines for assisting
North Koreans exceed USD 700. Contacts there note some
mixed border-crosser/Chinese couples secured residence
permits for their children for fees of USD 75-150, though
details are unclear. END SUMMARY.

NORTH KOREAN OFFICIALS IN NORTHEAST CHINA, SINUIJU
-------------- --------------


2. (C) North Korean diplomats in northeast China did not,
contrary to press rumors last month, receive orders from
Pyongyang restricting travel pending an "important
announcement," according to PRC contacts regularly in
contact with North Korean diplomats and officials. Inbound
delegations of North Korean officials into Shenyang and
Dalian for trade purposes continued as normal throughout
the period, a Shenyang-based, PRC-DPRK trade facilitator
told Poloff October 23. He claimed North Korean diplomats
at the DPRK Consulate in Shenyang told him they had
received no orders to stay for the "important announcement"
speculated about in the press. LU Chao (PROTECT),a North
Korea expert at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences
(LASS) who regularly meets with North Korean diplomats in
Shenyang, told Poloff earlier the same day that none of his
North Korean contacts had been subject to any travel
restrictions. The businessman reported, however, that the
highest-level North Korean trade officials stationed in
Shenyang (for business purposes) were recalled to Sinuiju
on October 9 in advance of the following day's anniversary
of the founding of the Korean Worker's Party. The North
Koreans subsequently told our contact that while in
Sinuiju, they were given no news of any leadership changes,
nor did higher-ups notify them of any new policy direction
("fangzhen") in their day-to-day work in China.

PRC SECURITY POSTURE NEAR DANDONG
--------------


3. (C) Recent firsthand observation, along with comments by
PRC officials, suggest no outward change in the security
posture of People's Armed Police (PAP) or People's
Liberation Army (PLA) personnel in the Dandong area,
contrary to Japanese tabloid reporting in late October.
During an October 27-28 visit to Dandong, Hushan and
Donggang/Qianyang, Poloff observed few noticeable changes.
Near Qianyang township, by Donggang--about 50 kilometers
south of Dandong--Poloff on October 28 observed one patrol
vehicle (marked as such) but little else out of the
ordinary. Border residents Poloff encountered in Hushan
and Dandong on October 27 recalled no noticeable security
changes in recent weeks. Lu Chao echoed this observation
on October 23, citing recent conversations with Dandong
officials and security personnel. During a research trip
to Dandong earlier in the month, Dandong customs officials
told Lu there were no major changes in PRC-DPRK border
trade through Dandong's land and sea ports in recent weeks.
Border Defense likewise reported no major changes in terms
of security posture, patrols or cross-border tensions,
according to Lu.


SHENYANG 00000150 002 OF 003


NORTH KOREANS, CHINESE ON THE DPRK'S HARVEST
--------------


4. (C) PRC specialists in northeast China continue to
dispute United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and Food
and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates of significant
North Korean agricultural shortfalls this year, citing DPRK
officials and their own research. North Korean grain
harvests this year have been better than the preceding
year, in part because of better weather and open-market
fertilizer purchases--however limited--from China and other
countries, according to Lu Chao. But Lu, who said he
recently briefed officials in Beijing and Liaoning Province
on North Korean security and leadership issues, told Poloff
October 23 that grain shortages are not as dire as agencies
like the WFP claim. His comments echo those we have been
hearing from a number of other Chinese Korea specialists.
Most authoritative, perhaps, are those of the Jilin Academy
of Social Science's ZHANG Feng (PROTECT),a Korea
specialist who has been engaged in a classified assessment
of North Korean food security over the past year for the
Jilin government. In Changchun as early as September 16,
she told Poloff she disputed WFP/FAO claims based on the
results of this year's spring harvest and her predictions
for the main harvest in October/November. She declined to
elaborate.


5. (C) During a recent meeting with North Korean Consul
General RI Gi Bom, Ri claimed this year's harvests have
been decent, offering his "personal estimate" that total
output would reach roughly four million metric tons,
recalled Lu Chao of LASS. Ri told Lu that he had not,
however, yet received any "official statistics." (NOTE:
Ri's positive appraisal of this year's harvest echoes
remarks we have heard recently from other Shenyang-based
North Korean diplomats, at times unsolicited; see, for
instance, reftel.) Separately, a Yanbian-based ethnic
Korean Chinese who visited Chongjin for humanitarian
purposes in September/October 2008 told our ethnic Korean
Chinese Pol/Econ LES Assistant October 15 that the area's
harvest appeared much better than last year.

NORTH KOREANS POSTPONE PRC-DPRK TRADE FAIR
--------------


6. (C) A PRC-DPRK border-trade exposition billed as the
largest such event "since the founding" of the PRC and DPRK
was abruptly canceled by the North Korean side days before
the event was to take place, according to one of the
event's organizers. The fall 2008 PRC-DPRK Border Economic
and Technological Cooperation Expo was originally slated to
take place in Donggang--south of Dandong--October 28-31.
Sponsors were the Donggang government and the Dandong
Weihuadao Investment Group, a private PRC-DPRK trade
facilitator. The Dandong Weihuadao Investment Group's XU
Jun (PROTECT) told us October 28 that the event fell
through "late" during the week of October 19-25 when North
Korean diplomats at the DPRK Consulate--his group's North
Korean interlocutor--told him North Korean clearances did
not materialize. Xu claimed roughly 200-300 firms had
signed on as exhibitors, of which "20 to 25" were North
Korean. (NOTE: During a brief visit on October 28 to the
scheduled site of the expo, we found a mostly empty
warehouse in poor condition likely incapable of
accommodating an expo of such size; we suspect claims of
the event's scale were exaggerated. END NOTE.) Xu added
that North Korean diplomats would visit later that same day
to discuss rescheduling the event, which he speculated
would be moved to early 2009.

SINUIJU OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT PLANS
--------------


7. (C) The Dandong Weihuadao Investment group is also
currently involved in developing North Korea's Weihua
Island, off the coast of Sinuiju, said Xu. In early 2006,
Dandong Weihuadao apparently partnered with the North Korea
Waterway Trading Company (Chaoxian Shuidao Maoyi
Zonghuishe) to jointly develop Weihua Island and the nearby
Xin Island, according to Xu and materials he passed us.
Much of the yet-to-be-begun development plans appear
overambitious (e.g., meeting centers, tourist

SHENYANG 00000150 003 OF 003


accommodations). Other elements, like a PRC-DPRK
"friendship" wholesale market, have progressed more, though
current status remains unclear. The Group appears well-
connected in the DPRK. Its owner is the son of Chinese who
fought with Kim Il Sung against the Japanese in northeast
China; he maintains a "close relationship" with North
Korea's central leadership because of this, according to
Xu. Company materials claim the Group repaved the North
Korean half of the PRC-DPRK Friendship Bridge--the trade
conduit between Dandong and Sinuiju--in August 2007 as an
"aid" project.

NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS: FINES, ASSISTANCE, OFFSPRING
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Farther north along the PRC-DPRK border in Jilin
Province, China's targeting of North Korean border-crossers
and those assisting them reportedly continues in the
Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture. A Yanji-based ethnic
Korean Chinese man was recently fined RMB 5000 (USD 735)
after being caught by police supporting North Koreans
illegally in Yanbian, he told our ethnic Korean Pol/Econ
LES Assistant during an October 14-17 visit to Yanbian.
The man, who has been working together with networks of
foreign missionaries, claimed police in Yanbian are
offering rewards of RMB 2000-3000 (USD 300-440) for turning
in North Koreans but did not specify whether this varied by
location. A PAP Border Defense guard who shared a cab with
POL/ECON Assistant from Sanhe to Yanji October 16 mentioned
that the quality of border defense has grown in recent
years. Two or three years ago, conditions were "poor," he
claimed; the guard recalled an incident in which a fellow
guard died in an altercation with North Korean soldiers who
had crossed into Yanbian.


9. (C) South of Yanji in Chongshan (across from Samjang-ri,
near Musan),a pastor at a small ethnic Korean protestant
congregation noted October 15 that few North Korean border-
crossers have arrived at his church recently because
conditions are unsafe for them. He explained that most
local Chinese offering them assistance are members of his
congregation acting privately, often with the assistance of
foreigners. Echoing remarks of other Korean-Chinese
contacts involved in such work, the pastor identified
Korean-Americans, Korean-Australians and South Koreans as
the predominant groups of foreigners assisting North Korean
border-crossers in Yanbian at present.


10. (C) Yanbian contacts continue to report that certain
mixed couples (i.e., border-crosser North Korean
females/Chinese males) have been able to secure residence
permits, or "hukou," that allow their children access to
critical social services like education. Practice appears
to vary throughout Yanbian and many details remain unclear,
but more than a few have been able to register with police
and receive a hukou according to one Yanji-based ethnic
Korean NGO worker who, along with her pastor-husband, has
been helping border-crossers there for years. Those she
was familiar with had paid police between RMB 500-1000 (USD
75-150),though she did not specify whether these fees were
offered as bribes. Ordinarily, she claimed, the fee for a
local Chinese would be RMB 20 (USD 3). The ethnic Korean
man recently fined for assisting border-crossers, however,
claimed the number is much smaller. Both contacts were
unclear on local variations and total numbers.
SWICKMAN