SHANGHAI ACADEMICS ON CHINA-INDIA RELATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000515 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM NSC FOR LOI E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2033 TAGS: PREL ETRD PARM EINV CH IN PK SUBJECT: SHANGHAI ACADEMICS ON CHINA-INDIA RELATIONS REF: A) 07 SHANGHAI 789; B) 07 SHANGHAI 785 CLASSIFIED BY: Christopher Beede, Pol/Econ Section Chief, U.S. Consulate, Shanghai, U.S. Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Shanghai scholars believe China-India relations are improving with high-level visits, military cooperation, and increasing bilateral trade, but unresolved border issues and political distrust are hampering further progress. Many Indian Government officials still maintain a "Cold War mentality" and are "suspicious" of China, according to the scholars. They think the lack of political trust is hindering closer economic ties. They noted difficulties for Chinese companies to obtain Indian business licenses and invest in certain sectors of the economy which India deems "sensitive", such as IT. They also noted difficulties obtaining Indian student visas. The scholars expressed growing confidence that China already has surpassed India in its development, and one scholar stated that India is still "15 to 20 years behind China." End summary. Warming Ties -------------- ¶2. (C) Shanghai scholars believe China-India relations have maintained positive momentum from last year, with high-level visits, military cooperation, and increasing bilateral trade (Ref A). Wang Dehua, Professor at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS),noted that Indian Prime Minister Singh visited China twice in 2008, and he thinks there will be a high-level Chinese visit to India next year. Both Wang Dehua and Wang Weihua, research fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS),said the Chinese and Indian militaries will conduct a joint military exercise "very soon," possibly at the end of this year, marking the first such joint exercise on Indian soil (Note: The first joint military exercise took place in China in 2007. End note). The scholars pointed to the USD 40-50 billion in bilateral trade this year, a significant increase from last year's USD 25 billion, as another indication of further warming of ties. But Fundamental Distrust -------------- ¶3. (C) Although overall relations are improving, there is still fundamental distrust on both sides, said the scholars. This distrust stems mainly from historical border issues, over which China and India fought a brief war in 1962. Shao Yuqun, Professor at SIIS, believes the border issue will not be resolved within the next ten years. The other scholars are equally pessimistic, calling it a "very difficult, long-term" issue that should be set aside for now while the two sides develop closer economic ties. Zhang Jiegen, Professor of South Asian Studies at Fudan University, thinks both China and India are "sincere" in their desire to resolve the issue, but the Indian Government cannot move forward with any agreement because of its "complicated" domestic political situation. According to Zhang, many figures in the Indian Government, as well as the Indian public, are "strongly nationalistic" and oppose any compromise. When asked if China would be willing to compromise, Zhang did not present a clear answer, stating that the status quo is good enough for now. (Comment: In previous discussions, scholars told Poloff that compromise would be difficult due to domestic pressure in both countries. See Ref A. End comment.) ¶4. (C) Despite closer military cooperation over the past couple of years, the military establishment on both sides are still "very suspicious" of each other, said Shao Yuqun. However, she thinks this suspicion exists mostly at the higher levels of the military. She said lower level border troops on both sides of the disputed boundary (Arunachal Pradesh) actually get along on a private level, often inviting each other for holiday celebrations. According to Wang Dehua, Indian military officials he recently spoke to are "positive" and "hopeful" about the future direction of bilateral relations. Wang, however, noted that despite a recent increase in military exchanges, there are many conservative figures in the Indian military who harbor a "Cold War mentality" towards China and continue to consider China a threat. ¶5. (C) According to the scholars, India is suspicious of SHANGHAI 00000515 002 OF 003 China's intentions in South Asia, which India considers its backyard. Zhang Jiegen thinks China used to be engaged in a balance of power struggle with India in South Asia but that it is now just looking "to make friends" with India's neighbors, respectful of India's "unique position" in the region. Shao Yuqun said India still thinks China harbors regional ambitions in South Asia. She criticized India for only blaming China for regional tension (e.g., between India and Myanmar) without "taking responsibility as the biggest player in South Asia to help its small neighbors." Political Distrust Hindering Economic Ties -------------- ¶6. (C) Although bilateral trade has grown over the past few years, the scholars uniformly believe the trade and investment volume would be even greater if India lowered its protectionist barriers. Quan Heng, Professor at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences who spent a year in India doing research on rural development, said the lack of political trust is hindering closer economic ties. He said he knows several Chinese businessmen who tried but failed to set up businesses in India because the Indian Government "without clear reason" refused to issue business licenses. According to Quan, since it is difficult to obtain Indian business licenses, many businesspeople from Zhejiang Province travel to India posing as tourists, carrying with them small items in bulk to sell in India through informal channels. Wang Dehua thinks India's negative trade balance with China is due to India's reluctance to sell China "sensitive technology" and iron ore. He noted, however, that the Indian Government recently moved to sign a long-term contract with China to provide iron ore since global demand has been dropping. ¶7. (C) Both Quan Heng and Wang Dehua think India only wants China to invest in certain sectors, such as road and bridge infrastructure. Whereas China is open to Indian investment in all sectors, they said, India is wary of Chinese investment in what it considers "sensitive" sectors, such as IT and harbor infrastructure. (Note: Indian IT companies in Shanghai told Econoff last year that the Chinese Central Government and local city governments were aggressively lobbying Indian IT companies, such as Tata and Infosys, to invest in China. See Ref B. More on Indian IT companies in Shanghai to be reported septel. End note.) For example, Quan talked about the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei's effort to invest in India's IT infrastructure. He said Huawei's application process was very long, and the company was eventually forced to scale down its project. According to Quan, the Indian Government cited "potential harm to national security" as its reason. Student Exchange a One Way Street -------------- ¶8. (C) Shao Yuqun believes China is open to Indian students, noting that many Indian medical students are enrolled in Suzhou University (in Jiangsu Province) and Zhejiang University. But the scholars complained that it is difficult for Chinese to get visas to study in India. Wang Weihua said many Chinese go to India on business visas, which are easier to obtain than student visas, and then change to student status while in India. Quan Heng said that Chinese students are "not welcome" in India. Those who are lucky enough to get student visas have to renew them every three months, he said. Zhang Jiegen talked about his own experience a few years ago when he was refused a student visa to do research in India. He speculated that his research topic of India's nuclear strategy may have been "too sensitive" for the Indian authorities. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Although the basic positive trajectory of the bilateral relationship appears unchanged since last year (see Ref A),the scholars were pointedly critical of what they perceive as India's unfounded suspicions of China. The scholars seemed to pin the blame for political distrust on India, saying India does not understand that China has moved beyond the Cold War balance of power struggle. The scholars' criticisms of India may reflect growing confidence in China's economic, political, and military strength, and underlying feelings that India is no longer playing at the same level as China. Shao Yuqun flatly stated that India is "15 to 20 years behind China" in its SHANGHAI 00000515 003 OF 003 development and that, although China recognizes India's progress, "in our hearts, we do not consider India to be at the same level." Some scholars also asserted that India sees China as a threat more than the other way around. ¶10. (C) The degree of academic interest on China-India relations in Shanghai is difficult to assess. Although these scholars recognize India's important role in China's foreign policy, they believe India is "not a hot topic" like other developing regions, such Africa and Latin America. One said there is currently "almost zero interest" in academia on this subject. However, Quan Heng noted that a Center for China-India Comparative Studies will be officially launched at SASS in mid-December, indicating that SASS, which is closely affiliated with the Chinese Government and currently has only one or two India scholars, may be looking to focus greater attention on South Asian affairs. CAMP