SHANGHAI ACADEMICS DISCUSS TAIWAN, NORTH KOREA AND IRAN WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000042 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/1/2033 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MARR CH TW IR BM SUBJECT: SHANGHAI ACADEMICS DISCUSS TAIWAN, NORTH KOREA AND IRAN WITH EAP DAS CHRISTENSEN REF: SHANGHAI 41 CLASSIFIED BY: Kenneth Jarrett, Consul General, U.S. Consulate , Shanghai . REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a January 22 lunch, four of Shanghai's leading U.S.-China relations academics exchanged views with EAP DAS Thomas Christensen on Taiwan, U.S.-China military relations, North Korea and China's non-interference principle. The academics expressed concerns about the domestic political situation in Taiwan. They warned that President Chen still had the opportunity to cause problems and that if the referendum on Taiwan membership in the United Nations passes it would be a "disaster" for the Mainland. The academics supported more transparency in the U.S.-China military relationship. They were pessimistic about North Korea, with one academic urging that the United States provide more concessions to help the North Koreans "relax." The academics noted that there is room for discussions on China's policy of non-interference and said that Sudan, North Korea, and antiterrorism efforts are forcing China to adjust its policy. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The Consul General hosted a lunch in honor of EAP DAS Thomas Christensen on January 22 with some of Shanghai's leading U.S.-China relations experts. At the lunch were Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) Vice-President Huang Renwei, Shanghai Institute of American Studies President Ding Xinghao, Vice Director of the Center for RimPac Studies at Jiaotong University Zhuang Jianzhong, and Fudan University Institute of International Studies Associate Dean Ren Xiao. Deputy Principal Officer, Pol/Econ Section Chief and Poloff also attended the lunch. Taiwan: Immature Democracy, Disastrous Referendum -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The academics expressed concerns about Taiwan and noted that China continues to be nervous about the March Taiwan Presidential elections and the referendum on Taiwan membership in the UN. SASS Vice President Huang said that no one can predict the outcome of elections in Taiwan and it is unclear whether KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou will win the Presidential election. Nor is it clear whether President Chen will truly step down in May. Although Chen Shui-bian has stepped down as DPP Chairman, DPP candidate Frank Hsieh will still have difficulties controlling his party. Fudan University's Ren emphasized that Chen is very unpredictable. Ren is not convinced that Taiwan's democracy will be able to constrain President Chen from taking radical actions. The 2004 assassination attempt on President Chen and the assassination of former Pakistan Prime Minister Bhutto all occurred in democracies. Huang added that Taiwan's democracy is not mature yet and it has been very difficult for the Taiwan government to make any changes. ¶4. (C) The academics were also worried about the UN membership referendum. Huang said that it would be a disaster for the Mainland if the referendum passes. Jiaotong University's Zhuang said that if the referendum passes there might be pressure on the new President of Taiwan to take steps towards independence since the referendum would represent the will of the people and UN membership is only for nation states. Zhuang predicted that Beijing would not take any strong actions before the Beijing Summer Olympics, but warned that the United States needed to continue to exert strong pressure on Taiwan to prevent the referendum from passing. Ding noted that the KMT is considering whether it should stop people from participating in the referendum in order to prevent it from passing. More than fifty percent of the electorate must participate in the referendum for it to be valid. He added that even if the referendum does pass, it does not have to become law and urged that the United States think of a method to prevent the referendum from taking effect. ¶5. (C) DAS Christensen urged that the Mainland adopt a more patient and moderate stance on Taiwan. Even if the referendum passes, it will not lead to a change in Taiwan's legal status. SHANGHAI 00000042 002 OF 003 In addition, the Taiwan public will not allow President Chen to implement any radical policy initiatives as long as China does not overreact. Taiwan's democracy does constrain President Chen and the situation would be much more problematic if there was not a strong, vibrant democracy in Taiwan. He also urged that the Mainland be prepared to reach out to the next President of Taiwan, no matter which candidate is the victor. Both KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou and DPP candidate Frank Hsieh are more moderate than President Chen. Huang asserted that it would be easier for the Mainland to have a formal dialogue with Ma than Hsieh because Ma has never denied the "One China" policy. DAS Christensen said that it is also important for the Mainland not to have any pre-conditions to beginning talks with Taiwan. He hoped that the academics would help Beijing find a more flexible approach to Taiwan. U.S.-China Military Relations: More Transparency Needed -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Huang noted that he had recently met with U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) Admiral Timothy Keating during the Admiral's Shanghai visit. Admiral Keating had told him that PACOM and the Pentagon are more optimistic than before about the U.S.-China military relationship. However, there continues to be a lack of mutual trust and confidence. Huang asked what measures China can take to increase trust between the U.S. and Chinese militaries. Zhuang added that it is natural for the Chinese military to undertake rapid modernization. China is becoming a big power and needs a big military to help out in conflicts. He also noted that tensions in cross-Strait relations are one factor in China's military build-up. DAS Christensen urged more transparency in this area. It is understandable for China to modernize its military, but the speed of modernization and the lack of transparency are disconcerting. Ding urged that there also be more transparency on the U.S. side and said it is important for the United States to provide briefings on its weapons and nuclear capabilities. The academics supported more high-level talks in this area. North Korea: Still Not Relaxed -------------- ¶7. (C) According to Ding, Chinese academics are not very optimistic about North Korea. Ren believed that the reason the North Koreans have yet to provide a complete report on their nuclear weapons program is because Pyongyang still does not trust the United States. Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill makes many statements, but in the eyes of the North Koreans, those statements are nothing but empty words, Ren said. Pyongyang wants more concessions from the United States. Ren acknowledged that the United States was following the agreement produced by the Six-Party Talks, but said that the United States needs to think about the ultimate goal of de-nuclearization and go beyond the agreement in providing concessions to secure North Korean action. Unless this occurs, the North Koreans will never "relax." ¶8. (C) DAS Christensen disagreed with Ren on a number of grounds including that it would be difficult for the administration to maintain domestic support, especially on Capitol Hill, if the United States provided unreciprocated new concessions to North Korea. Beijing plays a crucial role in this process and would be more effective in helping Pyongyang to "relax" and follow through with its promises. Ren did not think Beijing would be effective and said that Pyongyang is watching Washington not Beijing. China's Principle of Non-Interference -------------- ¶9. (C) As in his meeting with Shanghai Institute for International Studies (SIIS) President Yang Jiemian (reftel), DAS Christensen engaged the academics on a discussion on China's principle of non-interference. According to Huang, scholars from top to bottom are discussing China's principle of non-interference and its relationship with President Hu Jintao's "Peaceful Development" and "Harmonious Society" concepts. Huang summarized that "Harmonious Society" is the long-term goal and SHANGHAI 00000042 003 OF 003 "Peaceful Development" is the means of reaching the goal. ¶10. (C) Huang explained that China's non-interference policy began in the 1950's and is still in use today. However, Sudan, North Korea, and the need to fight terrorism have forced China to adjust its policies. China will interfere as long as two conditions exist. First, the country of concern must agree to Chinese actions, as had occurred in Sudan. If the country does not agree, China will use "soft power" to put pressure on the country to agree. Second, the action should be within a UN framework as occurred with Iran and North Korea. Working within the UN ensures that the actions are acceptable to everyone. Huang added that there is a third condition that no one really talks about but exists. The problem has to have some saliency or relevance to China. It does not have to be in China's interests, but needs to be relevant to China. Huang urged that the USG and Chinese Government discuss this issue during the next round of the Senior Dialogue. The discussion should not mention non-interference but be called something similar to "global governance." Directly discussing China's non-interference policy would not be acceptable. Ren noted a Chinese saying that existing things should not be touched, but new things can be changed. While China will not change old policies, it can enact new policies. ¶11. (U) This report was cleared by DAS Christensen. JARRETT