HIGH SPEED RAIL FURTHER INTEGRATES EAST CHINA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000372 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE ALSO FOR EAP/CM, EEB/TRA TREASURY FOR OASIA - DOHNER, HAARSAGER, CUSHMAN TRANSPORTATION FOR BERNESTINE ALLEN/NICOLE PORTER TRANSPORTATION FOR DAS JOEL SZABAT/DAS SUSAN MCDERMOTT USDOC FOR ITA MAC DAS KASOFF, MELCHER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ELTN PGOV ETRD EINV ECIN CH SUBJECT: HIGH SPEED RAIL FURTHER INTEGRATES EAST CHINA REF: A) SHANGHAI 18, B) SHANGHAI 19 SHANGHAI 00000372 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Over the past year, East China has embarked on a quest for further intra-regional connectivity and economic integration through faster passenger rail transport. On July 15, Shanghai and Zhejiang Province announced plans for a new high-speed rail link that will connect Hangzhou, the provincial capital, with Shanghai. On August 18, the Zhejiang Provincial Government announced it planned to commence construction of the Shanghai-Hangzhou Magnetic Levitation (Maglev) line, which will shorten the trip to 25 minutes. A subsequent announcement by the Hangzhou Mayor on September 2 clarified that there is no timetable for the Maglev extension, given the high-speed railway between the two cities would perform similar functions, but local governments are still committed to the project. Shanghai is also planning to extend the current Maglev line to Shanghai's Hongqiao Airport in time for the World Expo in 2010. Earlier in 2008, Shanghai's decision to extend the Maglev train caused a dust-up among local residents worried about the impact of the extension on the property values of their apartments and also on their health (reftels). Besides these advanced technology trains, other fast train lines are proliferating in the region. High Speed Railway Link -------------- ¶2. (U) According to Chinese media, the Minister of Railways plans to construct a new high-speed railway between Shanghai and Hangzhou that will commence next year and be completed by 2013. The 158-kilometer line is slated to link the Hangzhou Eastern Railway Station with Shanghai's Hongqiao transport hub, currently under construction adjacent to Hongqiao Airport. The line will reduce traveling time to just 30 minutes (currently 1 hour and 45 minutes). The peak speed for the train will be over 300 kilometers per hour (186 miles per hour) and total construction cost is estimated at USD 4 billion. There will be five stops along the line: Yuhang, Tongxiang, Jiaxing, Shanghai's Songjiang District and Fengjing Town. The Shanghai-Hangzhou link is planned to connect to the Shanghai-Beijing high speed railway line currently being planned. In Hangzhou, passengers would also be able to transfer to the Hangzhou-Ningbo railway line. Ningbo is Zhejiang Province's largest seaport and home to 5.6 million residents. ¶3. (U) On July 1, 2008, construction of the high-speed railway between Shanghai and Nanjing, capital of Jiangsu Province and home to 7.7 million residents, also got under way. The total length of this high-speed railway will be 300 kilometers with the peak speed reaching 250 kilometers per hour. Total investment on the project will be RMB 40 (USD 5.8) billion. The Ministry of Railways will finance the project, which is scheduled to be completed before the 2010 Shanghai World Expo. (Shanghai officials predict attendance at the six-month 2010 Shanghai World Expo will be sixty million persons, of which fifty million will be domestic visitors.) After the completion of this railway, travel time between Shanghai and Nanjing will be reduced from 2 hour and 20 minutes to 1 hour; travel time between Shanghai to Suzhou (population 6.2 million) in eastern Jiangsu Province will be reduced from 37 minutes to 15 minutes. During peak times, there will be one train every 3 minutes to facilitate the transportation between the two cities. There will be 21 stops along the line and experts predict the completion of this railway will benefit business in the smaller cities along the line. The overall capacity for this railway between Shanghai and Nanjing is estimated at 68 million people annually. Part of the Bigger Picture -------------- ¶4. (U) The high-speed rail project is part of a bigger plan to link East China with Beijing. According to media reports, construction on the Shanghai-Beijing high speed rail link began on January 18, 2008. Upon completion in 2014, the travel time between the Chinese capital and the nation's commercial center will be reduced from ten hours to five. It will also double the existing annual transport capacity to 160 million passengers. The Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway will be 1,318 kilometers (820 miles) in length, and 21 stations will be set up along the line. The peak speed for the train will be 350 kilometers per hour. It is also projected that during peak hours, trains will depart every five minutes. The total cost of building this high speed railway is estimated at USD 21 billion, China's second SHANGHAI 00000372 002.2 OF 003 biggest project behind the Three Gorges Dam. The projected one-way train ticket price will be between RMB 600-800 (USD 88-117). Upon completion, the Shanghai-Beijing High Speed Railway is expected to carry 80 million passengers per year. Currently in China, these are the only two proposed high speed railway projects: Shanghai-Beijing and Shanghai-Hangzhou. ¶5. (SBU) Experts noted that the Beijing to Shanghai High-Speed Railway will bring tremendous business opportunities to China as well. Over 80 percent of railcars will be purchased from domestic companies as part of China's long-term home-grown technology plan. Experts also expect the large passenger volume on the line to help the project breakeven within eight years. Once the project is completed, the cities along the Beijing-Shanghai corridor will likely attract additional investment. According to a SinoPac Securities transportation analyst, China's massive investment in the railway infrastructure construction just started and will continue over the next 10 years. To emphasize the point, he said that public railway construction investment increased 29 percent in the first 6 months of 2008, reaching USD 11.6 billion. This occurred against the backdrop of a moderate increase in total infrastructure investment by the Central Government. Maglev Construction on the Slow Track -------------- ¶6. (U) On August 18, the Zhejiang Provincial Government announced it would commence construction of the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev line and would cost RMB 22 billion (USD 3.2 billion). The provincial office supervising the Maglev project said it would finish preliminary work of site selection and environmental evaluation this year. With the extension to Hangzhou, the total length of the Maglev line will be approximately 200 kilometers (124 miles),including the section that links Shanghai's two international airports. However, on September 2, Mayor of Hangzhou Cai Qi clarified that the there is no timetable for the Maglev extension, given the high-speed railway between the two cities would perform a similar function. Mayor Cai told the media that the "The Maglev project has the backing of the Shanghai, Hangzhou and Zhejiang governments and is unlikely to be built in the same time frame as the high-speed railway project, but it will definitely go ahead." The Maglev extension through the city of Shanghai appears to be on track to be completed before the 2010 World Expo. In early 2008, the planned expansion touched off numerous protests by Shanghai residents concerned about electromagnetic radiation emitted from the Maglev and the impact of the Maglev on the property value of their houses. City officials claim they have rerouted part of the planned extension in response to residents' concerns. Maglev vs. High-Speed Rail -------------- ¶7. (U) The proposed high speed railway link has a few advantages over the Maglev. First, the high speed rail track can easily integrate with the existing rail track, which the Maglev is unable to do. Second, the Maglev's construction cost is twice as much as high speed rail and operation cost is nine fold. In order to break even, the Maglev will charge a hefty ticket price, which is difficult for the average Chinese citizen to bear. High speed rail is also more environmentally friendly than the Maglev in terms of noise and radiation. Additionally, the Maglev travel time to Hangzhou will be 25 minutes, only 5 minutes faster than the high speed rail. (Comment: Some speculate that Zhejiang's announcement to build a Maglev railway link to Shanghai is nothing more than an effort to save face. The plan was one of Zhejiang's top priorities in the past and it appears to be difficult for provincial leaders to give it up. The Maglev extension was initially side-lined after Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu fell from power in October 2006 and was roundly criticized for such extravagant projects. Now that the political crisis has passed, officials seem more willing to pursue the Maglev project once again. End comment.) Other Fast Trains Also Proliferating -------------- ¶8. (U) Since April, 2007, when the Ministry of Railways increased permitted train speeds, fast trains around East China have blossomed. The so-called "D Train" train speed has been increased from 160 kilometers per hour to 200 kilometers per hour. With the new "D Train", the travel times between Shanghai SHANGHAI 00000372 003.2 OF 003 and elsewhere within the Yangtze River Delta have dropped significantly. For example, the travel time between Shanghai and Nanjing was reduced to just 2 hour and 20 minutes (previously close to 3 hours),Suzhou now only takes 37 minutes (previously 55 minutes),and Hefei (Anhui Province) now only takes 3 hours. (previously over 7 hours). Although the "D Train" is fast, it is still different from the High Speed Railway, which is based on a combination of advanced railway technology and railcars. The "D Train" is based on locomotive technology and uses regular track. ¶9. (SBU) Comment: In the past, East China, as with the rest of China, failed to adequately develop its rail system. As a consequence, the rail infrastructure had largely been incapable of meeting the demands placed on it by the booming economy, whether for moving coal for power generation, other freight or millions of passengers daily. East China's dramatic improvements in highway networks and aviation means the rail system no longer occupies as central a role in the region's transportation network, even if inadequate in that earlier role. Now East China's passenger rail system is scrambling to catch up. Based on media statistics, the total annual passenger volume in the Yangtze Delta Region will reach 3.05 billion passengers by 2010 and 5.5 billion passengers by 2020. The area's move to boost rail connectivity will bring the railway system back into greater relevance and diminish bottlenecks in passenger movement. End Comment. JARRETT