SHANGHAI ACADEMICS ON CHINA'S ROLE IN SUDAN, ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000283 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/28/2033 TAGS: CH ETRD PARM PREL XA SUBJECT: SHANGHAI ACADEMICS ON CHINA'S ROLE IN SUDAN, ZIMBABWE REF: SHANGHAI 280 CLASSIFIED BY: Veomayoury Baccam, Acting Section Chief, Political-Economic Section , U.S. Consulate General, Shanghai, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Shanghai's academic experts on China's foreign policy and African studies view Zimbabwe's crisis as a strictly internal matter that should be resolved through dialogue between the ruling and opposition parties, and they strongly oppose any further sanctions. The academics also believe China has been unfairly criticized over Darfur, stating China is only one of many players in the crisis. China may have some leverage over Khartoum, but Western governments hold more sway over the rebel groups. They view the International Criminal Court's (ICC's) recent move to indict Sudanese President Bashir as counterproductive and a sign of Western bias against the Sudanese government. End Summary. Zimbabwe: Need More Dialogue -------------- ¶2. (C) Local academics believe the situation in Zimbabwe has improved with the recent agreement between ruling and opposition parties, and warn that sanctions against the ruling regime would be counterproductive. Zhang Zhongxiang, Professor at the Department of West Asian and African Studies, Shanghai Institute for International Studies (SIIS) stressed to Poloff during a meeting on July 23 that Zimbabwe's political crisis is an internal matter to be resolved by the people of Zimbabwe within the framework of the Southern African Development Community (SADC),African Union (AU),and the United Nations (UN). He also stressed that sanctions against the ruling regime are "useless" and that China will not dictate a "roadmap" for the talks, though it hopes for a peaceful resolution. Although he initially stated that "the people of Zimbabwe elected Mugabe as their president, and China cannot change the will of the people", he backtracked slightly when asked to clarify this statement in light of accusations that the elections were neither free nor fair. However, he continued to argue that this is strictly an internal issue and that "China is not responsible for changing the internal affairs of a foreign nation". ¶3. (C) In a meeting on July 23, Wu Xinbo, Fudan University Center of American Studies Deputy Director, observed that China's recent veto of the United Nations Security Council Resolution to impose further sanctions on Zimbabwe's ruling elite was based on principle and geopolitical considerations. Since Zimbabwe supported China in the past when it came under attack from the international community on human rights issues, China cannot "betray its friend". If it goes against Zimbabwe now, how can China count on it for support in the future? He further noted that third world countries are an important "political resource" for China on the international stage. "How different is this from the United States supporting dictators during the Cold War for geopolitical reasons?", he asked. ¶4. (C) Ren Xiao, Fudan University Institute for International Studies Associate Dean, argued that the current mediation effort should be given more time and the situation resolved through dialogue. Any calls for further sanctions would be "premature". He opined that China vetoed the UN Resolution for several reasons. First, based on its own experience of facing pressure from Western countries in the past, China is in principle opposed to using sanctions and pressure on a sovereign nation. Second, the situation in Zimbabwe does not pose a threat to international peace and stability. It is fundamentally an internal issue, and the current mediators should be given more time. Third, the measures proposed in the sanctions resolution would not work in any case. Ren believes Chinese and Americans have "different mindsets" when tackling these issues, as the Chinese prefer "quiet diplomacy behind the scenes". He predicts a power-sharing arrangement similar to the one in Kenya and thinks another election is "highly unlikely". Darfur: Stop Blaming China -------------- SHANGHAI 00000283 002 OF 003 ¶5. (C) The academics all believe China is being unfairly criticized for the situation in Darfur and China's influence in Sudan is overplayed by the foreign media and NGOs. Wu of Fudan noted that although China accounts for 40 percent of oil deals in Sudan, Indonesia accounts for 30 percent, so why has Indonesia not been criticized as well? Zhang of SIIS asserted that, although China has some leverage over the Sudanese government, Western governments have more leverage over the rebel groups. Western governments, the Sudanese government, rebel groups, neighboring countries, and China all have an equal role to play in the peace process, so it is unfair to only criticize China. He noted that China played a "crucial role" in passing UN Resolution 1769 to deploy the AU-UN hybrid peacekeeping mission (UNAMID) in Darfur, and China has already sent large amounts of humanitarian aid to Darfur. Ren similarly argued that China is already playing a constructive role by persuading the Sudanese government to accept UNAMID and to remain "flexible and cooperative" in its talks with the rebel groups. The situation is "more complicated" than portrayed by the Western media, he claimed. ¶6. (C) The academics also see the recent move by the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor to indict Sudanese President Omar al Bashir as counterproductive. According to Zhang, this illustrates the international community's bias against the Sudanese government. He fears the ICC's move may encourage rebel groups to adopt a tougher stance against the government in negotiations. Ren believes an indictment of a sitting president would set a dangerous precedent and lead many in the developing world to view the ICC as "an instrument of Western powers". The international community should instead focus on moving the political process forward through engagement with all parties. The academics also stressed that the crisis in Darfur is "not genocide", reiterating that Darfur is only "one of many conflicts" currently ongoing in Africa. China's Growing Presence in Africa -------------- ¶7. (C) The academics see China's burgeoning relationship with Africa in the context of China's overall economic growth and search for resources. China is not solely focused on Africa, Zhang pointed out. China is also looking to strengthen its economic ties with Latin America (where Chinese investments has grown 14 percent over the past year),the Middle East, and other developing areas. According to Ren, China historically has had good relations with Africa; there are no bad memories of Chinese colonization of Africa, and they share a sense of camaraderie as developing countries. ¶8. (C) Zhang thinks Western accusations of bad practice by Chinese companies in Africa are misguided; Africans have welcomed Chinese investments and appreciate foreign businesses not tied to Western countries. Wu also observed that the Chinese are generally received positively by African governments and people. However, both he and Ren noted that the Chinese government has recently become sensitive to foreign criticism of Chinese business practices. Chinese embassies and consulates in Africa have been tasked with closely monitoring Chinese company practices. However, in practice, the Chinese government only has strong influence over state-owned enterprises (SOEs) but carry little sway over private Chinese companies, which, according to Zhang, account for over 700 out of the 900 or so Chinese companies operating in Africa. Wu and Ren downplayed the Chinese government's role in Chinese business practices in Africa, stating it can only "advise" and "make suggestions" to private Chinese companies on labor and environmental issues. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) There continue to be few pure Africa experts in Shanghai. Wu and Ren are better known for their work on security issues and U.S.-China relations, and both look at Africa issues from a general Chinese strategic viewpoint. Zhang is head of the recently established African studies program at SIIS. As SIIS President Yang Jiemian explained during a recent meeting (see reftel),SIIS is trying to expand its research into diverse fields. SIIS Vice President Chen Dongxiao mentioned that Africa is now a "hot topic" among academics, so other institutes may follow suit with African studies programs in the SHANGHAI 00000283 003 OF 003 future. JARRETT