Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SHANGHAI209
2008-06-05 06:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Shanghai
Cable title:
SHANGHAI AMERICA-WATCHERS ON A DIFFICULT YEAR, TAIWAN, AND
how-toVZCZCXRO1653 PP RUEHCN RUEHGH DE RUEHGH #0209/01 1570608 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P R 050608Z JUN 08 FM AMCONSUL SHANGHAI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6898 INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1900 RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 1218 RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 1245 RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1247 RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 1383 RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 1057 RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 0151 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 0217 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0309 RUEHKL/AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR 0022 RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 7456
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000209
SIPDIS
NSC FOR WILDER, TONG
SECDEF FOR ISA DAS SEDNEY
TREASURY FOR AMBASSADOR HOLMER, WRIGHT, DOHNER, CUSHMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/5/2033
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EFIN CH TW
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI AMERICA-WATCHERS ON A DIFFICULT YEAR, TAIWAN, AND
THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP
REF: SHANGHAI 00000194, SHANGHAI 00000195
CLASSIFIED BY: SCHUCHATSJ, Deputy Principal Officer , Consulate
General of the United States Shanghai, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000209
SIPDIS
NSC FOR WILDER, TONG
SECDEF FOR ISA DAS SEDNEY
TREASURY FOR AMBASSADOR HOLMER, WRIGHT, DOHNER, CUSHMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/5/2033
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EFIN CH TW
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI AMERICA-WATCHERS ON A DIFFICULT YEAR, TAIWAN, AND
THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP
REF: SHANGHAI 00000194, SHANGHAI 00000195
CLASSIFIED BY: SCHUCHATSJ, Deputy Principal Officer , Consulate
General of the United States Shanghai, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Summary. On May 24, David Shear, incoming EAP/CM
Director, met with Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS)
Vice President Huang Renwei and, separately, with Fudan
University Center for American Studies Deputy Director Wu Xinbo.
(Meetings with Shanghai Institute of International Studies
Director Yang Jiemian and Fudan American Studies Center Director
Shen Dingli are reported septel.) Both Huang and Wu hope that
the Strategic Economic Dialogue continues in some form under the
next administration. While optimistic in the long term, Huang
emphasized that even the economic relationship between the
mainland and Taiwan had many complicated technical aspects and
that faster change would not necessarily be desirable. Wu said
that China's Ambassador to the U.S. would retire next year and
predicted that senior PRC officials would seek to visit
Washington early in the new administration. End summary.
A year of significant change
--------------
2. (C) SASS's Huang Renwei told Shear that 2008 appears to be a
year of significant change in China, with sudden, complicated
events including:
-- the unprecedented snowstorm at the beginning of the year;
-- the "Lhasa riots" in March;
-- the Taiwan elections in March;
-- disturbances and demonstrations both in China and overseas in
connection with the Olympic torch run; and
-- the catastrophic earthquake in Sichuan.
According to Huang, leaders in Beijing find it difficult to deal
with these events, but they can also force China to move
forward. Some things are being changed by these crises. Huang
compared the process to a person developing and maturing.
The U.S. Presidential election and the bilateral relationship
-------------- --------------
--------------
3. (C) The U.S. Presidential election may also have a
transforming impact on China, depending on how the candidates,
and the next administration, focus on trade issues. The
U.S.-China trade relationship is important for both sides,
according to Huang. Neither the U.S. market, nor China's
existing manufacturing capacity, can be moved to the other
country in the short term. However, the long term trend is for
greater domestic demand in China, as well as towards a more
flexible exchange rate for the renminbi (RMB). These processes
take time. There will be a new U.S. administration in seven
months. However, the half year until the election is too short
for China to make significant changes. Huang predicted that the
first year of the administration will be more difficult (for the
bilateral relationship) than the second or third years. By the
third year things will have moved much further on the exchange
rate. Ultimately, the exchange rate is a short term rather than
a long term problem. The bigger problem, according to Huang, is
the health of both the U.S. and Chinese economies. He b
SIPDIS
NSC FOR WILDER, TONG
SECDEF FOR ISA DAS SEDNEY
TREASURY FOR AMBASSADOR HOLMER, WRIGHT, DOHNER, CUSHMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/5/2033
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EFIN CH TW
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI AMERICA-WATCHERS ON A DIFFICULT YEAR, TAIWAN, AND
THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP
REF: SHANGHAI 00000194, SHANGHAI 00000195
CLASSIFIED BY: SCHUCHATSJ, Deputy Principal Officer , Consulate
General of the United States Shanghai, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Summary. On May 24, David Shear, incoming EAP/CM
Director, met with Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS)
Vice President Huang Renwei and, separately, with Fudan
University Center for American Studies Deputy Director Wu Xinbo.
(Meetings with Shanghai Institute of International Studies
Director Yang Jiemian and Fudan American Studies Center Director
Shen Dingli are reported septel.) Both Huang and Wu hope that
the Strategic Economic Dialogue continues in some form under the
next administration. While optimistic in the long term, Huang
emphasized that even the economic relationship between the
mainland and Taiwan had many complicated technical aspects and
that faster change would not necessarily be desirable. Wu said
that China's Ambassador to the U.S. would retire next year and
predicted that senior PRC officials would seek to visit
Washington early in the new administration. End summary.
A year of significant change
--------------
2. (C) SASS's Huang Renwei told Shear that 2008 appears to be a
year of significant change in China, with sudden, complicated
events including:
-- the unprecedented snowstorm at the beginning of the year;
-- the "Lhasa riots" in March;
-- the Taiwan elections in March;
-- disturbances and demonstrations both in China and overseas in
connection with the Olympic torch run; and
-- the catastrophic earthquake in Sichuan.
According to Huang, leaders in Beijing find it difficult to deal
with these events, but they can also force China to move
forward. Some things are being changed by these crises. Huang
compared the process to a person developing and maturing.
The U.S. Presidential election and the bilateral relationship
-------------- --------------
--------------
3. (C) The U.S. Presidential election may also have a
transforming impact on China, depending on how the candidates,
and the next administration, focus on trade issues. The
U.S.-China trade relationship is important for both sides,
according to Huang. Neither the U.S. market, nor China's
existing manufacturing capacity, can be moved to the other
country in the short term. However, the long term trend is for
greater domestic demand in China, as well as towards a more
flexible exchange rate for the renminbi (RMB). These processes
take time. There will be a new U.S. administration in seven
months. However, the half year until the election is too short
for China to make significant changes. Huang predicted that the
first year of the administration will be more difficult (for the
bilateral relationship) than the second or third years. By the
third year things will have moved much further on the exchange
rate. Ultimately, the exchange rate is a short term rather than
a long term problem. The bigger problem, according to Huang, is
the health of both the U.S. and Chinese economies. He b