A TOUR D'HORIZON OF THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP FROM FUDAN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 SHANGHAI 000195 SIPDIS NSC FOR WILDER, TONG SECDEF FOR ISA DAS SEDNEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/2/2033 TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN ENRG CH TW IR SUBJECT: A TOUR D'HORIZON OF THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP FROM FUDAN'S AMERICAN STUDIES CENTER DIRECTOR CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Acting Consul General, U.S. Consulate General, Shanghai, China, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. During a May 24 meeting Fudan University American Studies Center Director Shen Dingli told incoming EAP/CM Director David Shear that the Sichuan earthquake, which had revealed much weakness in the Chinese government, would be a catalyst for positive change. He appraised the three remaining U.S. Presidential candidates and confided that China would be most comfortable with Senator McCain as President -- but that China needed, and wanted, a good working relationship with the U.S. no matter who becomes President. As tensions reduce across the Taiwan Strait, the economic and financial aspects of the bilateral relationship are increasingly central. China needs a robust U.S. economy for its own economy to grow and its national savings to retain their value. With the election of Ma Ying-jeou, the mainland faces a more adept and effective leader on Taiwan, in whose success China now has a stake. It will have to give more "face" to the "Republic of China," he predicted. It may be difficult for the U.S. to adapt to a rising China, but China's overwhelming needs are for a positive relationship with the United States. China will seek to cooperate with the U.S., whether on Iranian proliferation or global energy security, because only through strategic cooperation with the U.S. can China safeguard its own interests. End summary. Earthquake as positive catalyst -------------- ¶2. (C) Shear began by expressing his condolences over the devastating earthquake in Sichuan earlier this month. Shen responded that the earthquake has been a positive catalyst for further change in China. First, the media "disobeyed the Party's orders," as journalists headed for the disaster zone to report developments firsthand. According to Shen, this was the first time for the media to disregard instructions from the Propaganda Department on such a large scale. As a result of the disaster, and the manner in which it was covered in China, western media presentations of China went from highly critical (because of the situation in Tibet) to highly favorable. It is natural that China should evoke such sympathy, but it is also important that China's leadership is perceived to have done a good job, particularly in contrast with Burma. Situation in Tibet -------------- ¶3. (C) Shen traveled to Tibet in late April, as one of the first Chinese academics to visit after the disturbances in March. It was his first visit to Tibet. According to Shen, China's strategic interests are such that it will not relinquish control over Tibet under any circumstances. Recalling the war with Japan, when the invading forces could not reach Sichuan, let alone Tibet, it was clear to Shen that China needed the strategic depth which Tibet provided. He observed that the Chinese government has accomplished many positive things for Tibet, but nevertheless thousands of people participated in the anti-Chinese demonstrations. The important questions are, why do the Tibetans hate the Chinese so? And why is the Dalai Lama more popular than the Chinese government? Finally, why was the Chinese government so ineffectual in handling the demonstrations? Was it because the local authorities were overly cautious, or too bureaucratic? There was essentially no government control from March 10 through 13. Shen noted that some have argued that the government did not respond, even when rioters attacked civilians and destroyed property, in order to build a case for the subsequent crackdown. However, Shen was not convinced by this argument. Assessing the U.S. Presidential Candidates -------------- SHANGHAI 00000195 002 OF 005 ¶4. (C) China is concerned about the U.S. Presidential election, Shen explained. He described difficulties he had when invited to observe the 2004 election, when Chinese government approval for his trip was first given and then withdrawn. Shen attributed the about-face to the leadership's desire to see President Bush reelected, and a concern that if there was too much interest in China in President Bush's opponents, they might be blamed for giving aid and comfort to his enemies. In a like manner, the Chinese government cannot say that it would like to see Senator McCain elected, but it does prefer McCain to the other candidates. In fact, polls today suggest that McCain will lose, but according to Shen, the Chinese government greatly prefers a Republican to any Democrat. ¶5. (C) Shen confided that he did not look favorably on any of the three remaining Presidential candidates. In his view, Senator Obama is still too young and inexperienced, with only a few years experience in the Senate. All he has done so far is oppose the war in Iraq, but even that he has done largely as a state legislator, not as a national-level legislator. Senator Clinton would make a good President, in Shen's view; she is very capable. Her fundamental weakness is arrogance and she has therefore alienated many people. She has failed to apologize for her vote authorizing the Iraq war, which Shen saw as a failure of leadership. That is, her vote for the war was an expedient decision, rather than a principled one, and thus she did not demonstrate Presidential leadership. ¶6. (C) Among the three, Shen gave highest marks to Senator McCain, who has demonstrated his commitment to the country. He spoke honestly when he said America might be in Iraq for a century, just as the U.S. has been in Japan for more than 60 years already. McCain understands that, even if the United States mistakenly went into Iraq, it should not mistakenly leave. So, in Shen's appraisal, Senator McCain is more responsible, acknowledging the burden of staying and is honest in recognizing that there cannot be a complete withdrawal. According to Shen, if the situation in Iraq stabilizes, China would certainly want the U.S. to remain. For strategic reasons, the United States has a responsibility to clean up the mess there, and an uncontrollable, but weak Iraq could well attack the United States or even China. Furthermore, for tactical reasons it is in China's interests for the United States to remain in Iraq. China wants to be a good partner to the next administration -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) There is both rivalry and competition between the U.S. and China. Although the situation has improved, Taiwan is still an issue between us. Of course, China should not make any mistakes, but if the U.S. is tied up with Iraq, there are more opportunities for China to demonstrate that it is a good partner and that the U.S.-China relationship should be further strengthened. For the near term, China wants to be seen as a helpful friend to the United States. In the longer term, the PRC will of course continue to develop its own comprehensive national strength, but even then, Shen believes that China's own interests will increasingly coincide with U.S. interests. ¶8. (C) Shen stated that China would be eager to cooperate with the next U.S. administration, whoever is President, particularly in those areas where China already has a stake, so that cooperation would advance China's existing interests; and in areas where China is vulnerable. In both cases, for China to address U.S. concerns would help China. China's highest priorities are economic cooperation, and a stable relationship with Taiwan. Internally, China is concerned with progress in systemic reform, maintaining and bolstering regime legitimacy, and proceeding with sustainable development. For all these purposes it is highly desirable that the U.S. continue to be China's partner. China needs capital, technology, and access to the U.S. market, although with China's growing surpluses, capital is a less pressing need. It is crucial for China that SHANGHAI 00000195 003 OF 005 the U.S. have a robust economy, so that it can keep buying Chinese exports, and so that the value of China's reserves do not decline. China sees opportunities in U.S. vulnerability. In Shen's assessment, whether the U.S. experiences a natural decline, or a strategically manipulated decline, in either case it will hurt China. ¶9. (C) China also needs a stable currency. Currently, according to Shen, some Chinese experts argue that the RMB needs a predictable, natural decline in value, while others argue that further appreciation is necessary, either gradually or in a one-time jump. This is important because increasingly the axis of the U.S.-China relationship is less and less defined by the Taiwan issue, and more and more by economic and financial concerns. Thus, currency valuation is a leading factor in the relationship. If a Democrat is elected President, Shen believed that the currency would still be a leading issue. Therefore, many in the PRC hope that Senator McCain will be elected: he would also address economic and financial imbalances, but in a gradual, respectful manner. This is another reason for China's general preference for a Republican. The SED is valuable for China -------------- ¶10. (C) China will continue to reform its economy, restructure its industry, and keep itself open to the rest of the world. China's growth provides many opportunities for other countries. According to Shen, this will be a leading theme on the Chinese side at the next Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) in Washington this June. No one can say whether the next U.S. administration will continue the SED, but in fact it has helped to stabilize the economic relationship. It has forced the Chinese government to organize itself in order to respond to U.S. pressure, and kept the need to consider U.S. views in the forefront of economic policymakers' minds. The dialogue helps China accomplish its own goals. With too little pressure, China does too little, although it will ultimately respond if it is in its own interests. The SED helps make China become more competitive economically. The problem is that if there is perceived to be too much pressure, the policymakers lose face, and the affected industries push back. Shen said that the Chinese government is getting weaker, and more vulnerable to internal pressure groups. The internet also creates more pressure; the central Government now needs to respond to a certain kind of public pressure. Since the government is not elected, it needs to be more responsive in order to preserve its legitimacy. Weak Central Government and Earthquake Response -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) Expanding on his view of the central Government as weak, Shen explained that it was necessary for Premier Wen Jiabao to travel to the earthquake affected region and coordinate the reform efforts. Otherwise, there would have been no coordination at all. The center is weak, and local government could not respond, so relief efforts were up to the military. However, the military was also incapable and unwilling. Premier Wen had to compel them to act, admonishing them that "the people raised you, you have to decide how to do this." The earthquake revealed serious technical problems with the PLA and its lack of preparedness. The military's capability was in fact low, and it was overly concerned about its own casualties. By day three of the disaster the PLA was finally ready to act, but only because it was under enormous pressure. The Chengdu Military Region was poorly prepared and lost considerable face as a result; it had to bring in helicopters from other military regions. A new cross-strait environment and a smarter counterpart -------------- -------------- SHANGHAI 00000195 004 OF 005 ¶12. (C) Turning to the Taiwan issue, Shen said that this would continue to be a long-term, core concern, but in the future the relationship between Taiwan and the mainland would be more competitive. The PRC needed to find a way to deal with the Republic of China (ROC). He noted that during the earthquake, China had accepted aid from Taiwan and that included tents which had "ROC" printed on them. The PRC would have to find a way to give the ROC more face. Chinese academics were "thrilled" that Ma Ying-jeou had used the phrase "Chinese nation" (Zhonghua minzu) in his inaugural address, and had emphasized that the ROC was founded by Sun Yat-sen. Among the Taiwan-watching community in China, there was a recognition of the need to respond positively to Ma's speech, as well as an understanding that now was not the time to emphasize reunification. Ma had been very smart, focusing on the need to unite the people of Taiwan; to calm the PRC; and have the U.S. perceive him as a responsible leader. Shen thought this meant that there would be arms sales from the U.S. to Taiwan in the near future. ¶13. (C) Ma's position of "no independence, no unification, no use of force, and respect reality," was actually not so popular in the mainland, particularly his call to "respect reality" which could be taken as meaning "accept Taiwan's de facto independence." Ma represented a new type of "responsible Taiwanese." Ma Ying-jeou's logic is that the ROC could not become democratic on the mainland, but could do so on Taiwan. His interpretation of the "92 Consensus" is that the mainland is part of the ROC, but in terms of its span of control, the ROC is virtually equal to Taiwan. This re-raises the legitimacy issue, since Ma won't seek to return to the mainland. Shen repeated that Ma was very smart, having left all sorts of clues that there are virtually two governments in one China, although he will do nothing to change that to a legal reality. For eight years he can sustain his "three noes," and won't betray those who didn't vote for him. For Shen, this was the importance of Lai Xiuyun's appointment as head of the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC). She won't make policy -- that will remain in Ma's hands -- but she will implement, and be a guarantor of the interests of those who did not vote for Ma. ¶14. (C) Overall, Shen saw Ma as a much more adept adversary than either Lee Teng-hui or Chen Shui-bian. Having observed how the PRC had responded to Lee and Chen, he has presented the mainland with a challenge: if you see me as an enemy, then I will be an enemy. By engaging in mutual shaping, he is retaking the initiative. The mainland needs to prevent Ma from becoming an enemy, and will have to deal with him, by lowering its own pace and refraining from alienating him. The mainland now has a stake in Ma Ying-jeou's success and this will keep it inclined to respond positively. "Rising China" and the U.S. Response -------------- ¶15. (C) From a broad perspective, China's systemic cohesiveness is growing. China's GDP is increasing and the gap with the United States is narrowing. President Bush's focus has been diverted away from China because of the war on terror, and has had to cooperate with China. Thus, Shen observed, at the 16th Party Congress in 2002 the Chinese Communist Party said that it need to take advantage of this "strategic opportunity." But now this pause is coming to an end. The U.S. will withdraw, at least in part, from Iraq, and in fact the situation in Iraq may be improving. This means that U.S. foreign policy will be re-prioritized; thus, at the 17th Party Congress, the language about the "strategic opportunity" was not repeated. In any case, China is now better prepared and has more resources to deal with other contingencies. ¶16. (C) However, the Chinese government has to work hard for its legitimacy and continue to produce economic benefits in order to stabilize the country. China will continue to need foreign investment for at least another twenty years. The SHANGHAI 00000195 005 OF 005 earthquake has demonstrated that the government doesn't have enough funds to build safe schools. Shen observed that China's constitution requires that four percent of all government expenditure go to education, but "we can't even meet our own poor standards." Shen believes that educated people will increasingly challenge the system and force it to improve. Thus, he repeated, the earthquake will be a positive catalyst for change. This should lead to a China that has a better government, and will be a better competitor for America. The power alignment in the U.S.-China relationship will continue to change; by 2025, China's nominal GDP should equal that of the U.S., while per capita GDP will be about one-fifth of the U.S. level. So, the question for the future is how will the U.S. deal with a more confident and capable China, albeit not an equal. The U.S. has no experience with a cooperative rival; the U.S. relationship with the USSR was entirely confrontational. Iran and energy -------------- ¶17. (C) Shen said that Iran is a worry, for China and the U.S., in different ways. It would be bad if Iran came between the U.S. and the PRC. Shen has written two papers for the Washington Quarterly on the Iran issue, and whether sanctions can stop proliferation. He believes that Iran is testing China's restraint, and that China will need to redefine its interests in the issue. China would not have so much at stake in a U.S.-Iran war, nor does it have as much influence with Iran as it does with North Korea. However, China's overall interests mean it must cooperate with the U.S. with regards to Iran. Doing so enhances China's international respectability. However, he acknowledged that this is an area where the U.S. is vulnerable and a war might benefit China. In any case, there are clear differences between China's position and that of Russia. China has been supporting sanctions resolutions, even though they are not strong enough. A related area for cooperation, in Shen's view, is in U.S.-China dialogue on energy security. This is increasingly important for China. If China feels less strategic pressure, then it would work less with Sudan, Venezuela, Burma, and other such states, and more with Australia or Indonesia. China needs to feel assured that, as long as it behaves responsibly, the U.S. will not block China's access to resources. Overall, only through strategic cooperation with the U.S. will China's situation improve. ¶18. (U) Mr. Shear has cleared this cable. SCHUCHAT