CHINA 'CANNOT ACCEPT' MA YING-JEOU U.S. VISIT, SHANGHAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000126 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE ALSO FOR EAP DAS CHRISTENSEN STATE FOR EAP/CM E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/28/2033 TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW SUBJECT: CHINA 'CANNOT ACCEPT' MA YING-JEOU U.S. VISIT, SHANGHAI TAIWAN SCHOLAR ASSERTS REF: SHANGHAI 122 CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate General, Shanghai, China, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Professor Zhang Nianchi, Director of the influential Shanghai Institute for East Asian Studies (SIEAS) and expert on cross-strait relations, told DPO that Beijing would "not be able to accept" a visit by Taiwan's president-elect Ma Ying-jeou to the United States, in a March 27 meeting. Zhang described the results of Taiwan's March 22 election as "very happy" but cautioned that Taiwan is a long-term issue that will not be resolved overnight. Zhang suggested that now is the most opportune time for U.S.-China cooperation on the Taiwan issue. Hu Lingwei and Zhang Zuqian of SIEAS and Poloff (notetaker) also attended the meeting. (Comment: Attesting to SIEAS and Zhang Nianchi's influence in Beijing, the Central Government has "used" all of the 18 SIEAS reports - a record for the institute - on Taiwan politics and cross-strait relations issued since the January legislative elections, according to Zhang.) End Summary. -------------- -------------- Beijing 'Cannot Accept' Ma Visit to United States -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Professor Zhang Nianchi described Ma Ying-jeou's request to visit the United States as a "new problem." Zhang stated that Beijing would "not be able to accept" such a visit, even if Ma traveled as a tourist prior to his inauguration in May, and stated that China and the United States need to consult on this issue. Zhang argued that there are other mechanisms for achieving whatever purpose Ma is trying to accomplish by going to the United States. Ma can easily communicate with the United States from Taipei. Suggesting that Beijing is still formulating its strategy with regard to Ma's potential U.S. trip, however, Zhang said "we need to do more preparation" on this subject. (Comment: Zhang's perception of Beijing's position on this issue sharply differs from that expressed by Fudan University's Wu Xinbo during a March 26 meeting with DPO (Reftel). End Comment.) -------------- -------------- "Cross-strait Relations Will Be a Bit Better, But..." -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Zhang described the results of Taiwan's election as "very happy" in that voters chose "peace" and did not approve the United Nations membership referenda. Though the election result is a positive step, solving the Taiwan problem is still "not easy." Zhang suggested the United States and other countries should not have high expectations for cross-strait relations just on the basis of the election. The United States and other countries, Zhang said, should treat the issue with "patience" because it "will not be resolved tomorrow." (Comment: We expect that Zhang is likewise counseling Beijing to have patience. End comment.) ¶4. (C) In particular, the political definition of "Taiwan" or "Republic of China" within the context of "one China," is a very sensitive question and will not be easy to resolve, noted Zhang, but with Ma Ying-jeou in office, there is now an "opportunity to discuss" this issue. Zhang also brought up values and ideology, saying that the Mainland and Ma Ying-jeou have great value differences in areas such as human rights. Overcoming years of anti-Communist ideology under the KMT, followed by years of anti-China perceptions in Taiwan under Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, will be difficult. According to Zhang, Ma's criticism of Premier Wen Jiabao also marks the first time a leader in Taiwan has leveled harsh criticism publicly against the Chinese premier, and this is "difficult for the Mainland to accept." Ma's comments on the Olympics have also rubbed Beijing the wrong way. SHANGHAI 00000126 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) On the positive side, Zhang is hopeful that there will be communication between Beijing and Taipei. The channel between the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) will probably be revived. He thought it was most likely that Chen Yunlin and others from the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office would move to the ARATS office, which is next door to their current office. If Taipei appoints a more senior figure to head the SEF, however, Beijing would reciprocate. ¶6. (C) Zhang was optimistic that direct weekend charter flights between Taiwan and the mainland could probably be implemented quickly. Likewise, mainland tourism to Taiwan would probably begin relatively soon. However, full implementation of the "three links" might take longer. He noted that the World HEALTH Assembly would meet before Ma's inauguration, which made it more difficult for Beijing to take any steps in the direction of increasing Taiwan's "international space," since the DPP would still be in power at that time. -------------- Accurate Prediction of Outcome -------------- ¶7. (C) Zhang said that his institute had predicted the outcome of the election, including the point spread, quite accurately. In his view, Ma's support is conditional and will depend on the success of his economic policies. According to SIEAS's analysis, the unrest in Tibet may have cost Ma as much as five percent of his support. However, Hsieh's attempt to win votes by demonizing the KMT's proposed "common market" with China was a failure. -------------- U.S.-China Cooperation has been excellent -------------- ¶8. (C) The cooperation between Beijing and Washington in advance of the election and the accompanying referendums has been unprecedented, according to Zhang. He was uncertain whether, in the future, there would again be such close cooperation between China and the U.S. on the Taiwan issue. Zhang credited the good personal relationship between President Bush and Hu Jintao as the key factor in our successful cooperation. Zhang was eager to know whether the United States expected to play a mediating role in the cross-strait relationship, albeit ambivalent on his preferred answer to the question. JARRETT