PRESIDENT LEE GETS SPECIAL SESSION TO DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000773 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KS KN SUBJECT: PRESIDENT LEE GETS SPECIAL SESSION TO DISCUSS KORUS FTA, ECONOMIC REFORMS REF: 2007 SEOUL 00096 Classified By: A/POL Brian McFeeters. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) On April 15 the floor leaders for the Grand National Party (GNP) and United Democratic Party (UDP) decided to convene a special National Assembly session for one month beginning on April 25. The term of the current progressive-dominated 17th National Assembly does not end until May 29, and President Lee Myung-bak requested the extra session to address the KORUS FTA and economic reform bills. Why not wait until the conservative-dominated 18th National Assembly takes over on May 30? The new assembly, which is not scheduled to convene until early July, will need time to organize itself -- including dividing the standing committee chairmanships between the ruling and opposition parties -- before it can seriously debate legislation during the September regular session. The GNP, which will have a majority in the next assembly, will hold a party congress to choose its new leader in July, raising the probability that ruling party lawmakers will be distracted by internal power politicking for much of the summer. The prospects for a productive "lame duck" session, however, are dim as progressives will not want to hand easy political victories to the GNP and President Lee. END SUMMARY. -------------- WHAT EXPERTS & LAWMAKERS SAY WILL HAPPEN -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On April 15 the two major parties agreed to hold an extraordinary session starting on April 25. President Lee Myung-bak had pushed for such a session to address the KORUS FTA and the economic agenda. Reactions to President Lee's request were initially mixed, with the GNP supportive while the UDP and minor opposition parties characteristically expressed skepticism. UDP chair Sohn Hak-kyu said the president "should not unilaterally pressure the opposition parties" to convene a National Assembly session. Nevertheless, the GNP and UDP floor leaders agreed to put priority on bills aimed at improving the livelihood of ordinary citizens -- for example, preventing crimes against children, enhancing food safety, and putting a cap on university tuition. The GNP also plans to push for approval of a more controversial package of corporate deregulation bills pertaining to conglomerates as well as lifting the restrictions on controlling banks and the equity investment cap on affiliates. ¶3. (SBU) The GNP and President Lee also hope to put the KORUS FTA forward for ratification. The UDP and other opposition parties, however, say they will cooperate in addressing economic bills, but that it would be inappropriate to deal with the KORUS FTA ratification in the lame duck session, especially since the agreement's fate in the U.S. is unclear. UDP floor leader Kim Hyo-seuk said that business deregulation laws and the KORUS FTA ratification are particularly controversial. The latter, he said, should be addressed in the new National Assembly when the ROK can be sure that the U.S. will also move towards ratification. The minor Labor Forward Party and Democratic Labor Party are also against passing the KORUS FTA in May and say the motion should be carried over to the new National Assembly. Many UDP members, however, support the FTA -- notably UDP chair Sohn Hak-kyu. Some of the more conservative UDP lawmakers want to handle the FTA as soon as possible, but legislators from the staunchly progressive Jeolla provinces, which are largely agricultural, still oppose such a move. -------------- PAST LAME DUCK SESSIONS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) This April's session will be the first extraordinary session to be convened between the parliamentary elections and the start of a new Assembly. The current National Assembly Act stipulates that, other than the September to December regular session every year, an extraordinary session can be held in any even-numbered month of the first half of the year -- February, April, and June -- but not in August, since it's immediately before the regular budgetary session. Extraordinary sessions can also be held in odd-numbered months -- January, March, May and July -- as long as they are agreed upon among the negotiation groups. It is less common, however, for a session to be held in those months, unless there is a compelling reason. In the past the National Assembly has usually been in a recess during its two month-long lame duck period between general election and the formation of the following National Assembly. Quite predictably, incumbents who failed to be nominated or reelected would be reluctant to engage in any further parliamentary activity. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) How cooperative progressive lawmakers -- who still hold the majority -- will be is unclear. Certainly there will be a reluctance to give President Lee and the GNP easy victories. Moreover, the GNP will find it particularly difficult to engage progressive lawmakers who were not reelected -- rumor has it that three-term UDP lawmaker Kim Geun-tae has yet to leave his house following his defeat in the April 9 elections. The fate of the KORUS FTA is similarly opaque. Opposition party leaders have told the Ambassador that they would support FTA ratification in the lame duck session (reftel),and UDP chair Sohn Hak-kyu is a proponent of the FTA. The real debate within the progressives, however, seems to focus not on the agreement itself but whether they should hand such a victory to President Lee early in his term. END COMMENT. STANTON