GNP HEADED FOR VICTORY LANE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000706 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS SUBJECT: GNP HEADED FOR VICTORY LANE Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: South Koreans go to the polls tomorrow, April 9, to choose their National Assembly representatives. Coming less than four months after the presidential elections, interest is low and the outcome, despite all the media chatter, not really in question: the conservative Grand National Party (GNP) will win a majority, only the size remains uncertain. Still, there are a number of hotly-contested races, involving powerful and well-known political personalities. END SUMMARY -------------- Out in the Field -------------- ¶2. (SBU) After attending multiple campaign events for candidates from the GNP, United Democratic Party (UDP) and New Progressive Party (NPP),the overwhelming impression is that there is little interest in these elections. Even the most high-profile candidates, like Sohn Hak-kyu and Park Young-sun on the UDP side, had a hard time ginning up more than a handful of spectators for their events. In one too-close-to call district featuring NPP candidate Roh Hoi-chan (formerly of the Democratic Labor (DLP) Party) and a young (37) rising star from the GNP, Hong Jong-wook, poloff witnessed a score of spectators watching stump speeches with little interest. The GNP has generated some interest with Chairman Kang Jae-sup followed by a host of reporters at events he attends; former Chairman Park Geun-hye was swarmed by supporters and reporters during her one appearance in Daejeon to support her close confidant Kang Chang-hee; and Lee Myung-bak made headlines with his visit to a construction site in Lee Jae-o's district (Lee trails Create Korea Party candidate Moon Kuk-hyun in all polls). ¶3. (C) NPP member Jo Seung-soo, a former lawmaker and supporter of Roh Hoi-chan, told poloff on the margins of a Roh event that Korean politics was at a crossroads. In the next ten years, it would become clear whether Korea was headed toward a dual-party system like the U.S. and Japan or to a multi-party system like in many countries in Europe. The meager support for the two left-wing parties (NPP: 1.6 percent and DLP: 2.8 percent) does not bode well for the multi-party model. However, if both the DLP and NPP break the 3 percent barrier (possible because of inaccuracies of polls) needed to obtain a proportional representative, the far left will at least maintain some voice in the National Assembly. -------------- Expert Analysis -------------- ¶4. (C) All our polling and domestic politics experts concur that the GNP would win a majority in the April 9 election. Leading political consultant Park Song-min said that the GNP could win up to 180 seats; with low turnout, the GNP would likely win many of the "too close to call" districts, he asserted. Han Gui-young of polling firm Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) told poloff April 8 the GNP could win more than 180 seats since polls from April 5-6 indicated that many previously undecided, older voters had swung their support back to the GNP. She said the UDP could win as few as 10 seats in Seoul (out of 48). In the last published polls April 2, there were 20 races in Seoul up for grabs. KSOI weekend polls indicated that 10 of these had swung to indicate comfortable wins for the GNP. ¶5. (C) Metrix Polling Company President Cho Il-sang gave a similar message, noting that the polls showing a slip in support for the GNP were misleading. While some polls did show GNP support falling from over 50 percent to under 40 percent, this was due to the high non-response rate. When the votes are in, Cho forecasted, the GNP would garner about 50 percent support and up to 30 representational seats, out of 54. This pollster predicted the GNP would win 172 seats and the UDP 85. ¶6. (C) Mr. Cho said that the Pro-Park Alliance candidates as well as many of the independents would not fare well as party identity had grown stronger in recent years. Professors Kang Wong-taek and Jaung Hoon, regarded as the top professors on domestic politics, agreed that the GNP would win a comfortable majority. The more conservative Jaung guessed the GNP would secure 171 seats while the left-leaning Kang predicted 165. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Since his landslide victory in December, President Lee has focused on the National Assembly elections to further consolidate his mandate and, perhaps more important, to stack the GNP -- and the National Assembly -- with his supporters. Lee will get his stated goal of a GNP-majority in the National Assembly. However, he is likely to find that the new group of GNP National Assembly representatives will also contain many unruly and independent figures. Still, the new National Assembly will be a lot easier than the current lot, just not as easy as LMB once dreamed about. VERSHBOW