GNP NOMINATIONS CUT RECORD NUMBER OF INCUMBENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000530 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KS KN SUBJECT: GNP NOMINATIONS CUT RECORD NUMBER OF INCUMBENTS Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The political spotlight is fixed on the April 9 National Assembly elections, overshadowing even President Lee and the current financial shocks Korea is experiencing. The UDP fired off the first surprise blast by excluding all applicants from the nomination process with past convictions of bribery and followed that by putting their two leaders, party chair Sohn Hak-kyu and presidential candidate Chung Dong-young at risk in high-profile Seoul districts rather than let them sit out the race and take proportional seat. The GNP responded by cutting a record 39 percent of incumbent lawmakers and sending five-term lawmaker Chung Mong-joon from his comfortable seat in Ulsan (home of Hyundai Heavy) to battle Chung Dong-young in Seoul. Individual races in Seoul have tightened, but the GNP is still poised to win a majority in the capital and thus a majority in the Assembly. End Summary ¶2. (SBU) On Sunday, March 16, the GNP announced its final list of nominees who will contest district seats in the April National Assembly elections; the list of candidates for the proportional seats will be finalized later this week. The nominating committee replaced 50 out of 128 -- or 39 percent -- of the party's incumbent lawmakers. This beat the party's previous highest-ever turnover rate of 36.4 percent in 2004. The lawmakers were dismissed on grounds that they had served jail time on corruption charges, had challenged primary election outcomes, or had changed parties too many times. Of the 245 nominees, 157 were supporters of President Lee Myung-bak and 44 were affiliated with former party chair Park Geun-hye. The remaining lawmakers are unaffiliated with either GNP faction. In addition to the 245 district races, 54 proportional seats are up for grabs based on total votes by party. ¶3. (SBU) Statistics on the new nominees: -- Average age is 51.6, almost the same as in the previous election. The eldest is Lee Myung-bak's brother, Lee Sang-deuk. The youngest is incumbent Kim Hee-jeong and Professor Bu Sang-il, both 36. -- The most frequently named previous job of the nominees was politician (25.3 percent) followed by legal professionals (22.9 percent),public officials (12.7 percent),businessmen (8.6 percent),and journalists (7.3 percent). 
 -- The majority of nominees (61.6 percent) have a Master's Degree or other higher degree. Seoul National University graduates accounted for 79, followed by Korea University and Yonsei University with 26 nominees each. ¶4. (SBU) This is the first time the GNP will field candidates in all electoral districts across the country for a general election. GNP candidates are poised to fare well in the traditional conservative strongholds of North and South Gyeongsang provinces but face a battle in the Seoul metropolitan area, which tends to be much more independent in its voting patterns. Until about one month ago, the GDP looked like it could win all of Seoul's 48 seats based on the popularity of former Seoul Mayor turned President Lee Myung-bak. Amateurish mistakes by the new president and his team combined with the UDP's political maneuvering have eroded some of the GNP's support in the metropolitan area, and some races now seem up for grabs. Pundits now predict the GNP will win about 30 of the Seoul seats. -------------- Heavy Turnover in Conservative Bastions -------------- ¶5. (U) On Friday the GNP disqualified 25 lawmakers from its stronghold in the Gyeongsang region, including 12 Lee Myung-bak supporters and ten from Park Geun-hye's faction, along with 3 belonging to neither faction. The cuts amount to 43.5 percent of the GNP's incumbents in the traditionally conservative Gyeongsang region, where the nomination essentially means election. Most notably left off the list were Park supporter Kim Moo-sung, a three-term lawmaker from Busan, and Lee Myung-bak loyalist Park Hee-tae, a five-term lawmaker and former vice speaker of the National Assembly. ¶6. (U) Three prominent lawmakers, all Lee supporters were not given the party ticket in the Gangnam belt, a wealthy area that has also been a bastion of conservative support in the past. These include: Kim Deog-ryong, a five-term lawmaker; Maeng Hyung-kyu, a three-term lawmaker and an official on Lee's transition team; and Park Kye-dong, also a three-term lawmaker. -------------- Danger Signs -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Many of the lawmakers who did not receive a nomination have already left the party with more likely to follow. GNP Supreme Council member and Park supporter Kim Moo-sung announced his decision March 14 to withdraw from the party and run as an independent. Eight lawmakers announced on March 18 that they would run as independents rather than joining smaller, conservative parties. This leaves the door open for them to return to the GNP if they win their seats in April. ¶8. (SBU) The plans of some senior lawmakers to run for re-election outside the party has raised concerns that they may attract some of the GNP candidate's support. According to one GNP lawmaker, if the GNP is to secure more than half of the Assembly seats, the party should take 80 percent of seats in South and North Gyeongsang provinces (the party currently controls 63 of the 68 districts). If influential lawmakers who failed to get nominations run independently, this could potentially split the conservative vote. -------------- Factional Split -------------- ¶9. (SBU) After weeks of factional arguing about the nominations process, the GNP seems to have once again avoided a split in the party. Late last week, former GNP chair Park Geun-hye, President Lee's rival for power in the party, was outraged over rumors that her supporters were going to suffer heavy losses in the Gyeongsang region. Though she has yet to respond publicly to the final nomination list, the fact that some of her key supporters were nominated seems to have staved off a crisis. Notably, Lee Hye-hoon, a confidant of Park, got the party's approval to run in Seoul. -------------- Key Races -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Seoul's large number of independent voters, the overall popularity of the GNP, and a history of voting for the opposition, make races in the capital the ones to watch. Two newspaper polls over the weekend have raised GNP concerns about their prospects in April. According to a JoongAng Newspaper poll on Sunday, in seven of 18 key electoral districts in the Seoul metropolitan area GNP candidates were running behind the other candidates, while the party's candidates were marginally ahead in only three districts. Meanwhile a weekend poll conducted by Gallup Korea for the Chosun Newspaper found that in 17 electoral districts GNP and UDP candidates were neck-and-neck in eight of those races. Overall, the GNP is still more popular in Seoul. In the Chosun poll the GNP's approval rating stood at 46.6 percent, more than double the UDP's 17.6 percent. ¶11. (SBU) Some of the most interesting contests are as follows: -- Chung Mong-joon (GNP) v. Chung Dong-young (UDP): Hyundai heir Chung Mong-joon maintains a comfortable lead over former presidential candidate Chung Dong-young. According to the Chosun survey, the GNP candidate scored 49.3 percent and the UDP hopeful was at 37.4 percent. -- Park Jin (GNP) v. Sohn Hak-kyu (UDP): According to Chosun, GNP lawmaker Park Jin leads UDP party chair Sohn Hak-kyu 39.7 percent to 30.4 percent. -- Lee Jae-oh (GNP) v. Moon Kuk-hyun (Liberal Forward Party): The JoongAng poll found the two candidates to be statistically even, with only 0.1 percent separating them. The Chosun poll, however, showed former presidential candidate Moon Kuk-hyun ahead of Lee Myung-bak confidant Lee Jae-oh by 6.5 percentage points. -- Shin Ji-ho (GNP) v. Kim Geun-tae (UDP): Veteran liberal lawmaker Kim Geun-tae (38.4 percent) was given a reprieve from an earlier UDP decision not to allow his candidacy and currently leads in the race against newcomer Shin (31.1 percent). -- Chin Soo-hee (GNP) v. Choi Jae-cheon (UDP): In the Chosun poll, Lee Myung-bak's spokesperson during the primary Chin leads former Chung Dong-young spokesman Choi by 2 percentage points while Choi leads Chin by the same margin in the Joongang poll. -------------- Proportional List Still Under Discussion -------------- ¶12. (SBU) The party is still working to finalize its list of 54 prospective lawmakers to run through the proportional representation system. In a move that outraged the UDP, the GNP selected former President Roh Moo-hyun's defense minister Kim Jang-soo (2006-2008) as the top male proportional representative candidate. The popular Kim was a big prize for the GNP as he became something of a political star among conservatives after he did not bow when he met North Korean leader Kim Jong-il during the inter-Korean summit last October. Kim Jang-soo said he joined the GNP because he wanted to work for the ruling party. Also in the running is former FM Song Min-soon, who is likely to get the nod from the UDP. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Getting lost in the splashy headlines caused by house-cleaning by both major parties ahead of the April 9 election is the fact that the new faces do not necessarily spell reform. Rather, the changing of the guard is likely being done for two simple reasons: to reflect Lee Myung-bak's preeminence in the party and to give the appearance of reform. The lack of transparency in the nomination process leaves room for backroom deals and not service to constituents as the deciding factor in securing a nomination. As long the nomination process continues to be controlled by a select few in the party, lawmakers will have to focus as much effort, if not more, on currying favor with the party bosses than on taking care of their district. VERSHBOW