SOHN PLAYS UDP'S LOSING HAND WELL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000513 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KS KN SUBJECT: SOHN PLAYS UDP'S LOSING HAND WELL REF: SEOUL 00096 Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The United Democratic Party's (UDP) resounding defeat in the December presidential election left the party struggling to get out from under the shadow of unpopular former President Roh Moo-hyun. Moreover, the new party chief, former Grand National Party (GNP) member Sohn Hak-kyu, seemed unable to articulate a vision for Korea that differed significantly from that of GNP rivals. The UDP is still likely to lose a significant number of seats (they currently have a near-majority with 141 out of 298) in April, but under Sohn's leadership the party is doing better than most pundits expected. Instead of trying to challenge former Hyundai Construction CEO and current President Lee Myung-bak on economic policy -- the number one issue for Korean voters -- the party has instead focused on fighting battles over government restructuring and cabinet nominees, highlighting issues like inter-Korean relations that resonate with UDP ideology and that most Koreans support. The UDP is also working on its public image by purging senior lawmakers to emphasize cleaner politics and to distance the party from previous administrations. UDP's support ratings remain low, but they will do better than many once thought, and Sohn has succeeded in transforming himself into a party leader, whether or not he wins a National Assembly seat in April. End Summary. -------------- "No Policy" Policy -------------- ¶2. (C) Neither UDP leader Sohn Hak-kyu nor party members have made any effort to distinguish their policies from that of their GNP counterparts. Although the "no policy" policy may have been born out of party dysfunction and disorganization following its candidate's resounding defeat in the December presidential election, the UDP has wisely stuck with it, seemingly recognizing the futility of trying to inspire voters on policy issues. -------------- Oppositional Not Obstructionist -------------- ¶3. (C) The UDP has been aided in no small way by Lee Myung-bak's overly ambitious policy agenda. Instead of concentrating on getting his government in place, Lee and his transition team spent most of the two months between the election and the inauguration fighting with the UDP over Lee's government restructuring plan, which would have cut the number of ministries from 18 to 13. Most controversial of the ministries slated for destruction were the Ministries of Unification (MOU) and of Gender Equality and Family (MOGEF). Few expected Lee to be successful in folding MOU into the foreign ministry, but the UDP also successfully argued for the preservation of MOGEF. The timing of this debate was key as the UDP acquiesced to a compromise solution just as the public tired of the issue. ¶4. (C) Lee Myung-bak's decision to select cabinet nominees based solely on their ability, apparently ignoring their chances for approval in a progressive-dominated National Assembly, gave the UDP a fight that they could sink their teeth into. Especially contentious was the selection of Nam Joo-hong to lead the MOU. Nam, an avowed hardliner on North Korea policy, concerned progressives both because of the impact he would have on inter-Korean relations and because of the message such an appointment would send to the North. The wealth of Lee's cabinet picks also raised eyebrows and eventually resulted in two nominees stepping down to avoid controversy. Having successfully cast itself as pro-engagement policy and anti-wealth, the UDP took its modest victory and approved the rest of Lee's cabinet picks. -------------- Park's Revolution -------------- ¶5. (C) While the GNP's nomination process for the April 9 National Assembly election has been dominated by squabbling between President Lee Myung-bak and former GNP chair Park Geun-hye, the UDP's headlines have featured the party's attempt to replace its old guard with new faces. In what media reports are calling "Park's Revolution," nominating committee chairman Park Jae-seung on March 13 announced that nine incumbent lawmakers (31 percent of its 29 lawmakers) in the staunchly liberal Jeolla provinces would not get the party's nomination for the elections. The nominating committee said that the Assemblymen were cut out because they have performed poorly, had been sentenced to jail terms, or had failed to gain support from residents in their respective constituencies. Conveniently, these representatives and others rejected nationwide are also those most strongly affiliated with the previous liberal administrations of Kim Dae-jung and the still unpopular Roh Moo-hyun. Left off the ticket were Kim Hong-eop, son of former President Kim Dae-jung; Park Jie-won, Kim's chief of staff; and Chung Dong-chae, former culture minister under Roh. ¶6. (C) The UDP is also pitting party heavyweights in key constituencies. On March 13, UDP chief Sohn Hak-kyu announced he would face off against prominent GNP lawmaker Park Jin in northern Seoul's Jongno district. This politically astute move positions Sohn to win either way. If he loses, he will be seen as having fallen on his sword for the party. If he wins, he will have established his credentials as a vote-getter and the undisputed leader of the opposition UDP. In a March 16 Chosun Newspaper poll, Sohn trails Park Jin 30.4 to 39.7 percent. Still, Jongno is not a bad fit for Sohn, and his poll numbers could come up. Known as "the number one address in Korean politics," where both Roh Moo-hyun and Lee Myung-bak both once served, Jongno has been historically kind to the opposition party and many voters may see Sohn's election there as an effective check on GNP power. ¶7. (C) Former presidential candidate Chung Dong-young announced he would run for the UDP in Dongjak, another Seoul district, against the GNP's Lee Koon-hyon, a key member of Lee Myung-bak's campaign team. In the GNP's final list, however, GNP heavyweight Chung Mong-joon announced he would run against Chung Dong-young in Dongjak instead of his home district of Ulsan. In the same Chosun Newspaper poll, Chung Mong-joon beat out Chung Dong-young by 12 percentage points. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The UDP still stands to lose in the April elections. Their support rates hover just under 20 percent. That said, the party -- and Sohn in particular -- have played a better hand than most expected. Though Sohn may not have significantly increased public support for the party, he succeeded in eroding support for President Lee and the GNP through effective attacks on Lee missteps. In January, Sohn told the Ambassador (reftel) that the UDP expected to lose all of the Seoul Metropolitan seats. Two months later, GNP and UDP candidates are in statistical dead-heats in eight of the 17 Seoul districts Chosun polled, and the campaign season is not yet officially underway. Though the overall results underscore the GNP's supremacy in Seoul, Sohn has proven himself as a skilled party leader and increased the probability that the UDP will present the Lee Administration with a viable opposition in the next National Assembly. VERSHBOW