LESS EUPHORIA OVER NEW ROK PRESIDENT LEE MYUNG-BAK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000390 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS SUBJECT: LESS EUPHORIA OVER NEW ROK PRESIDENT LEE MYUNG-BAK Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Lee Myung-bak's transition period, which ended with his inauguration on February 25, was plagued by weeks of political wrangling within the Grand National Party (GNP) over nominations for the April 9 National Assembly elections and intense debate with the United Democratic Party (UDP) over Lee's government reorganization plan. Add to that the battle over Lee's cabinet nominees (septel) and his failure to take action on economic reforms he promised during his campaign, and it is clear why some of the sky-high expectations created by Lee's landslide victory have started to erode. Lee's support rates, which were over 80 percent immediately after his election, are currently hovering just under 60 percent. Still, most analysts continue to believe that the GNP will win a majority of seats in April, giving Lee and opportunity to govern. End Summary -------------- Party Infighting -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Lee pledged he would introduce a new style of politics -- a break from "Yoido-style politics" (NOTE: Yoido is the island in Seoul where the National Assembly is located and Yoido-style politics refers to corrupt political practices. END NOTE),but this was never a short-term possibility. Still, pundits assess that rather than charting a new political course, the transition period featured public infighting between Lee's and Park Geun-hye's groups within the GNP. Park and/or her supporters threatened to leave the party multiple times over perceived unfair nomination regulations they claimed favored the Lee Myung-bak faithful. ¶3. (C) Kwon Sean-il, political assistant to Lee's elder brother and Vice Speaker Lee Sang-deuk, told poloff that President Lee was naturally very selfish and headstrong and that Lee Sang-deuk had counseled President Lee throughout the campaign to be more accommodating to Park Geun-hye and other political rivals. Kwon said he and his boss were worried that Lee's desire to have things his way in the nomination process, regarding personnel and policy formulation was not helpful. Additionally, Kwon said that he hoped the GNP did not win a huge majority in the April elections or else Lee Myung-bak would be uncontrollable, even by his brother, and would try to push through unreasonable reforms. -------------- Languishing Economic Reforms -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Lee won in December in large part by successfully projecting the image he could save the economy, but in the transition period Lee's team made announcements that scaled back some of Lee's campaign promises. Lee revised his ambitious seven percent growth goal to six percent due to the U.S. sub-prime loan crisis and high oil prices, and his team made several widely criticized -- and subsequently abandoned -- announcements that he would reduce cell phone rates and gasoline prices. Meanwhile, Lee tenaciously continues to advocate his canal project despite widely held skepticism about the benefit of a cross-country canal (55 percent oppose the plan in all recent polls) and staunch opposition from local and environmental groups. -------------- Dissipating Euphoria -------------- ¶5. (C) GNP politicians, who probably counted on riding Lee's coattails to victory in April, seem to be worried that they are going to have to work harder to win their seats. Representative Chung Mong-jun recently told the Ambassador that the GNP would find things more difficult with former President Roh Moo-hyun out of the political scene. The politician, who is close to Lee, said Koreans voted for Lee because they opposed Roh Moo-hyun. Chung said the challenge was to convince Koreans, who typically vote against, rather than for a candidate or party, that the GNP vision for the future was better than the UDP's. Chung said the election was already decided in the Southwest regions of Jeolla, which are overwhelmingly liberal, and the Southeast regions of Gyeongsang, which tended to be conservative. The real battle would be in the Seoul-Incheon-Suwon metropolitan area, where voters tend to be more independent. ¶6. (C) President Lee's decrease in popularity is a matter of concern, Chung said. Lee adviser and former Ambassador to the U.S. and Foreign Minister Han Sung-joo, also at the lunch, was surprisingly candid in his criticism of the transition. Han said that the transition team had tried to accomplish too much, and, instead of learning from their mistakes, he suspected the Lee team would continue to be overly ambitious. The problem, as Han articulated it, was that people were already fatigued with Lee's attempts to do too much too fast, and, moreover, Lee's aides are fatigued from being worked too hard over the last two months. The pace, he suggested, could just not continue. -------------- Not Such a Big Deal? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) According to political analyst Park Song-min, Lee's missteps have been scrutinized by the press and political opponents because of the April 9 election. At the beginning of previous administrations, there were similar mistakes made but in a less politically charged atmosphere, former Presidents enjoyed their honeymoon period. Park, who anticipated the GNP would win 180-200 seats April 9, said he was less worried by the transition team's shortfalls and bad personnel choices than by the lack of vision shown by President Lee in his inaugural address. He stated that the political chatter over personnel would soon go away, but if Lee does not chart a clear course for the country, it could be hard for Lee to maintain long-term support. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Lee Myung-bak won big in December because South Korean voters wanted Roh Moo-hyun out of office. Now that Roh is out, Koreans are beginning to assess Lee more realistically -- a septuagenarian businessman with a work ethic reminiscent of the Park Chung-hee days. At the same time, the liberal United Democratic Party, now freed from the grasp of Roh, is beginning to gel, presenting a serious challenge to Lee and the GNP. Still Lee's honeymoon is not over. Most analysts believe the GNP will win a majority of the National Assembly seats in April, allowing Lee the opportunity and authority to govern. VERSHBOW