BLUE HOUSE ADVISOR SAYS FTA, MAJOR LAWS WILL PASS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002457 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS SUBJECT: BLUE HOUSE ADVISOR SAYS FTA, MAJOR LAWS WILL PASS REF: SEOUL 2432 Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Ze Seung-wan, advisor to President Lee for civil affairs, told poloff December 22 that the KORUS FTA, along with other major legislation currently on hold due to physical opposition from the Democratic Party (DP),would be passed during the current 30-day special session set to end January 9. After giving the DP until Christmas to compromise on the FTA and other controversial laws, Ze said he thought the Grand National Party (GNP) would push through all outstanding legislation. Since President Lee Myung-bak had little to show for his first ten months in office, he felt pressed to pass these laws, Ze said; only if Lee started to do something could his popularity increase. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Ze, in charge of tracking the Korean people's response to President Lee's policies, told poloff on December 22 that President Lee felt he urgently needed to pass key legislation at the end of 2008 to create some positive momentum going into 2009. Ze said Lee will hold his New Year's address January 5 instead of later in the month as usual because of this sense of urgency. He explained that since many Koreans go to their home towns at the end of January for Lunar New Year, if people in the capital region thought more positively of Lee by the major holiday, discussion in people's homes around the country would accentuate this positive spirit and help boost Lee's support rate. ¶3. (C) The opposition DP had made a real miscalculation by bringing out hammers, saws and hoses to fight the GNP's attempt to put the FTA on the agenda for discussion. Ze said this miscalculation by the DP had led to a slight increase in Lee's popularity after the fight in the National Assembly and led to an opening for the ruling party to push through legislation. -------------- Timeline -------------- ¶4. (C) The ruling GNP announced that they would attempt to meet with the DP and seek compromise until December 25 and then after that would push through legislation. Ze said the FTA was the first law on the list for several reasons. First, Lee pledged to ratify it during the campaign and had been emphasizing its importance all year. Also, Ze said that ratifying it would provide a sort of "barricade" against future additional negotiations that the U.S. might suggest. Finally, the FTA was negotiated and signed by the Roh government, so Lee felt he should ratify it and move on to his own initiatives. -------------- FATU Report -------------- ¶5. (C) Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification (FATU) Committee Chair Park Jin told the Ambassador December 20 that the reason the DP had staged violent opposition to the GNP's attempt to put the FTA on the committee agenda was that the DP had hoped to portray Lee Myung-bak as incompetent and paralyze the government. He said he tried repeatedly to talk to the DP leadership and nine times gave the DP a date for discussion of the FTA to no avail. Therefore, he ultimately had no choice but to exercise his power as chair of the committee and put the bill on the agenda without DP participation. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The antics in the National Assembly last week (reftel) did not reflect well on anyone. Still, domestically, most of the blame has stuck on the opposition Democratic Party, thus opening a window of opportunity for President Lee and the GNP. Many in the Blue House and the GNP are now pressing President Lee for a show of force. In the short term, this could involve pushing through all key legislation currently on hold, much of it economic related (reftel). An added incentive for GNP legislators to fulfill Lee's wishes is that a good performance in the National Assembly could lead to a spot in the cabinet for some GNP lawmakers. STEPHENS