2009 BUDGET PASSES NA; MORE CLASHES TO COME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002403

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS
SUBJECT: 2009 BUDGET PASSES NA; MORE CLASHES TO COME

Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: On December 13, the ruling GNP along with
the conservative Liberty Forward Party (LFP) passed the
annual budget bill while the opposition Democratic Party (DP)
and Democratic Labor Party (DLP) members boycotted the vote.
Most pundits and Assembly sources note that the ruling party
will not take much heat over the forced passage of the
budget. Remaining controversial bills will not be so easy to
pass, however, with most press outlets predicting a "war"
between the parties for the rest of the 30-day temporary
legislative session. End Summary.

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2009 Budget Passes
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2. (SBU) On December 13, National Assembly Speaker Kim
Hyung-o called a plenary vote on the government-introduced
budget plan without the bill first passing through the budget
committee. This was the first time since 2005 the budget was
passed with the main opposition party's lawmakers absent.
The budget of 284.5 trillion won (206.8 billion USD)
represents an 11.05 percent increase from the 2008 budget and
includes spending to create jobs and help the country deal
with the economic crisis. The government will increase
spending on public works, roads, and infrastructure with the
new budget and now predicts a 2-3 percent growth rate in 2009
thanks to the economic stimulus from the budget. All major
dailies referred to the "war" or "collision course" that the
political parties were now on after the budget passage.

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MB's Low Ratings Make Work Difficult
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3. (C) Because the president was so unpopular, leading GNP
lawmaker Chung Doo-un told poloff on December 15 that it
would be very difficult for the GNP, despite its large
majority, to pass controversial legislation in the same
manner they passed the budget. All acknowledged the budget
was necessary so the DP did not make an attempt to physically
block its passage, but no such unanimity would be found over
other bills such as the FTA or bills related to media reform,
tax reduction or other ruling party initiatives.

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Pollsters Prognosticate
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4. (C) Director Han Kwi-young of KSOI, a leading polling
firm, pointed out to poloff on December 15 that while the
ruling GNP held steady at 35-40 percent support rating in
polls, in the most recent poll her firm conducted, only 18
percent thought the GNP was doing a good job. The higher
party support rating was simply a result of the abysmal
performance of the opposition parties, she explained. This
low approval rating would go further down if the GNP chose to
circumvent the normal political process to pass
government-sponsored legislation without passing through
committee vote.


5. (C) Leading political consultant Park Sung-min told
poloff that the logic behind the forced passage of the budget
was, he thought, so that other controversial bills could be
pushed through at the end of the year or at the end of the
special session. He disagreed with Han, pointing out that
the GNP could force through bills at the end of the year and
as a result, since people did not really know what the
specific laws meant for them and there would be so many laws
passed at once, the GNP might get credit for trying to help
the country get through the economic crisis.


6. (C) Park said the DP and DLP were playing into the GNP
strategy by opposing the GNP without offering any
alternative, thus alienating people further from the
opposition. Also, Park pointed out, if the GNP forced laws
through in December, by the time of the April 29
by-elections, the strong-armed action would already be
"ancient" history in the minds of voters. To put such
actions further in the back of voters' minds, Park said he
believed the Blue House would shuffle the Blue House Senior
Secretary lineup in January followed by a cabinet shakeup in
February to keep media focus on the Blue House and not on the
forced passage of controversial laws.

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Comment
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7. (C) Passing the budget without the opposition is not how
the political process is supposed to work in Korea, but with
an eager Blue House chomping at the bit to pass not only the
budget but other controversial bills and an opposition
lacking power, support and strategy, the result is a direct
vote on the budget and likely other votes to follow. The
ruling GNP has to watch out that it does not lose its support
by forcing too many laws through the assembly. An undesired
side effect of this could be that if the opposition feels it
has no voice in the legislature, it could take its issues to
the streets in large-scale protests.
STEPHENS