KOREA'S VIEW ON THE RISE OF CHINA (C-AL8-02576)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SEOUL 002383 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018 TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL KS SUBJECT: KOREA'S VIEW ON THE RISE OF CHINA (C-AL8-02576) REF: A. STATE 126002 (REQUEST) ¶B. SEOUL 1681 (ROKG ON CHINA) ¶C. SEOUL 2016 (IMPACT OF OLYMPICS) ¶D. SEOUL 0879 (TORCH INCIDENT) Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4(b/d) ¶1. (U) This message addresses questions posed in Ref A on South Korean views on China. -------------- ROK-PRC Engagement: Inevitable -------------- ¶2. (C) Due to history, geography, cultural affinities, and China's rise as a regional power, Korea has no choice but to engage China. For centuries, Korea lived under Chinese hegemony, often as a tribute-paying vassal state, and the ties between the countries were deep. South Korea's lack of engagement with China in the 20th century was an historical aberration; the historical norm is now being restored quickly. Since establishing diplomatic ties with the PRC in 1992, the ROK-PRC relationship has undergone tremendous growth and development. -- China is the ROK's biggest trading partner and the ROK is China's third biggest trading partner. Total bilateral trade last year was $145 billion, nearly equaling Korea's bilateral trade with the U.S. and Japan combined, and is growing at an annual rate of 20%. -- More than 800,000 Koreans are working in China; more than 600,000 Chinese are working in Korea. -- China is Korea's most popular tourist destination. Last year 5 million Koreans visited China and 1 million Chinese traveled to Korea. -- There are on average 113 flights per day between South Korea and China, connecting more than forty cities. -- Korean students comprise the largest number of foreign students in China, totaling more than a third of all foreign students in China. -------------- U.S.-ROK Alliance: The Hedge -------------- ¶3. (C) Though Koreans do not regard China to have already reemerged as a great power (Ref C),the potential for China's reemergence as a hegemonic power has reawakened an ingrained memory in the Korean collective consciousness. Koreans are instinctively wary of the implications of China's reemergence and view the U.S.-ROK alliance as vital to managing China's influence over Korea. Among ROK government officials and academics, there is strong consensus that Korea's independence and economic prosperity depend on the U.S. security umbrella and the U.S.'s success in maintaining regional stability through the projection of the U.S. military (Ref B). Therefore, as China's regional and global influence increases, so will the South Korean estimation of the importance of the U.S.-ROK alliance. ¶4. (C) A prominent theme of Lee Myoung-bak's 2007 presidential campaign was improving U.S.-ROK relations. He named it his first foreign policy priority, followed in order by relations with Japan, China, and Russia. But many Korean foreign policy experts agree that China, with the potential for greater risk and reward, is a higher priority for Korea than the generally stable but sometimes emotional SEOUL 00002383 002 OF 003 relationship with Japan. ¶5. (C) Continued U.S. strategic engagement in East Asia is critical to Korea's long-term security outlook. Koreans often refer to Korea as a shrimp between two whales: China and Japan. Kim Heung-kyu, a leading ROK-PRC relations expert at MOFAT's Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, said Korea had been invaded 950 times in its history, 500 times by Japan and 450 times by China. The U.S.'s role balancing China and Japan and ensuring stability in the region is fundamental to Korea's perception of its security. Consequently, discussion of USFK troop reductions or restructuring inevitably leads to speculation among Korean opinion leaders about whether the move signals a U.S. reevaluation of its commitment to the peninsula. The latest example was the decision last month by the Depart of Defense to redeploy 24 Apache helicopters from Korea to Afghanistan and replace them with different aircraft. The press buzzed with speculation over whether the decision reflected a diminishing of the U.S.'s commitment to Korea, prompting the Korean Ministry of Defense to issue a statement saying, "the U.S. commitment to maintaining forces in Korea remains strong." -------------- Korean Public Opinion: Anxious -------------- ¶6. (C) Kim Heung-kyu said the Korean public's opinion of China had declined significantly compared to the positive opinion in the decade following the normalization of relations in 1992. Kim said China used its soft power, particularly visits and exchanges, to great effect to foster a positive public image among Koreans after normalization. According to Kim, by 2002, more than half of the Korean public identified China as its most favorable foreign country, a higher rating than for the U.S. Today, Kim calculates that some 55% of the Korean public identify America as the most favorable country, with approximately 30% choosing China. ¶7. (C) Kim said the decline in China's favorability began in 2002 with China's Northeast Project. Chinese academics, as part of the Northeast Project, argued that greater China historically included much of modern Korea and that Koreans had historically been one of fifty-five ethnic minorities in China. Kim said the mere mention by Chinese scholars that the Chinese considered Koreans to be an ethnic Chinese minority touched a deep nerve in the Korean psyche because the most treasured Korean ideal is the uniqueness of the ethnic Korean identity. ¶8. (C) Another factor contributing to the decline of Chinese favorability among Koreans was the April 2008 Olympic Torch Relay incident in Seoul. Thousands of PRC flag-waving Chinese demonstrators massed in the heart of Seoul and rioted against Korean NGOs protesting China's human rights record and the Korean police attempting to maintain order (Ref D). The violence and virtual impunity of the protestors shocked the Korean public, and according to Kim, created a sense of vulnerability and impotence that has not subsided. -------------- China's Influence: Growing -------------- ¶9. (C) Kim Heung-kyu, as well as Lee Tai-hwan, Senior Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute, agreed that China does not aspire to be a preeminent power in the region for at least another generation. Kim and Lee, who both lived and studied in China for a number of years and who maintain SEOUL 00002383 003 OF 003 regular contacts with Chinese academics and government officials, said the Chinese are fully aware of the internal economic and social challenges that China must resolve before it becomes a great power. Nevertheless, because of its sheer size and the history of its relations with the region, China has an influence in the region disproportionate to its actual power. There is a consensus that China's influence will only grow. STEPHENS