FEUDS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANLTY DIMINISH GNP GAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000221 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KS KN SUBJECT: FEUDS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANLTY DIMINISH GNP GAINS IN APRIL REF: SEOUL 000096 Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The conservative Grand National Party (GNP) -- out of power for the last decade -- is poised to win big in the April 9 National Assembly elections, giving them control over both the parliament and the Blue House. The progressive United New Democratic Party (UNDP) is still floundering and is bracing for huge losses. In Seoul alone the GNP is anticipating winning 46 of the 48 districts, while the UNDP is unlikely to win any. Fears of splits within the two major parties are unlikely to be realized before the National Assembly election. GNP infighting between rival Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye factions continues but is unlikely to result in a party split, instead underscoring the mutual mistrust between the rival groups. Defections from the UNDP have slowed, but the party's cohesiveness -- and its leader, Sohn Hak-kyu -- may not last much past the April elections. End Summary. -------------- General Election Outlook -------------- ¶2. (C) The GNP is set to win a majority of the National Assembly seats in the April 9 election, with observers now speculating merely over how big that majority will be. Song Hae-young, the Senior Adviser to UNDP Representative Im Jong-seok, on January 31 repeated party leader Sohn Hak-kyu's prediction to the Ambassador (reftel) that the UNDP was unlikely to win any of Seoul's seats. Senior Secretary to GNP Representative Chin Young agreed, saying of Seoul's 48 districts, at least 46 were very likely to go to the GNP. Meanwhile UNDP staffer Lee Seung-hee said that her boss, Representative Kim Won-wung, stood a better chance in his district of Daejeon, which she said would be almost equally divided between Lee Hoi-chang's party and the UNDP. According to Lee, support for the UNDP is higher in the technology hub because of Lee Myung-bak's decision to eliminate the Ministry of Science and Technology. Lee Myung-bak, she said, has also made GNP enemies in Jeju by planning to abolish the April 3 Commission, w hich was established by then President Kim Dae-jung to look into allegations of past atrocities committed against the island's inhabitants. ¶3. (C) Nevertheless, voting trends in these isolated localities do not reflect nationwide voting patterns. Several leading first-term UNDP lawmakers recently told the Charge they had little hope for reelection in April, and that it could take 10-15 years to re-establish a viable liberal opposition party. These lawmakers said, more so than in the U.S., overall trends and party strength influenced elections in each district. In a separate meeting UNDP staffer Song agreed, and noted that people tend to vote for the party. In some districts, he said, the UNDP candidate has more name recognition and was more popular, but people would vote GNP because of the party's popularity. Song pointed out that in 2004, the trend was exactly the opposite, with the progressive party enjoying much more support. -------------- GNP Bickering -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The feud between Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye factions in the GNP flared up again recently over a decision to "strictly apply" a party ethics rule on nominees for April's National Assembly elections. Park supporters claim the rule, which requires that nominees be free of past charges on financial irregularities, disadvantages Park's backers -- who tend to be older veterans of Korea's turbulent political past -- and specifically targets Representative Kim Moo-sung, one of Park's closest confidants. On January 31, Kim hinted at defecting from the party and 35 pro-Park members said they would join him. The party's decision also affects some heavy-weights like Lee Myung-bak supporter Park Sung-vum and Kim Hyun-chul, the son of former President Kim Young-sam. This latest feud will likely be resolved through a compromise, but, like those in the past, it represents the enormous mistrust between the two GNP factions. -------------- UNDP (Barely) Holding Together -------------- ¶5. (SBU) UNDP chair Sohn Hak-kyu appointed Park Jae-seung, an attorney and former Korea Bar Association chair, to head the party's nomination screening committee. According to Song Hae-young, Park is a good person with a reputation for compromise, making it unlikely the nomination process will cause further division in the party. Still, Park is a political novice who could easily be influenced by the party leadership. Additionally the party is still fractious. Some want to sideline President Roh Moo-hyun supporters within the party and seek a "change of the guard" in the Jeolla districts; the Chung Dong-young faction is pursuing its own goals; and there are still on again, off again merger talks with the smaller Democratic Party (DP). Meanwhile, Song told poloffs, former Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan might retire and support his chief of staff's candidacy instead. Lee previously said he would do so if the party lost the presidential elections, but the younger UNDP lawmakers' demand that the party elders step down actually made it harder for Lee to do so now, Song said. -------------- Minor Parties Unlikely to Gain -------------- ¶6. (SBU) A host of new and existing minor parties will put forward candidates but are unlikely to become much of a political force. Probably the most promising of these parties is Lee Hoi-chang's soon-to-be-formed "Freedom and Advancement Party." The ultra-conservative three-time presidential candidate is touting the party as the only means of checking Lee Myung-bak. Moon Kuk-hyun, who got almost 6 percent of the votes in December's presidential election, announced in early January that he hoped his Creative Korea Party would win 30 seats, but he set similar inflated goals during his presidential candidacy. The UNDP's minor coalition partner, the DP, is unlikely to exert anywhere near the influence it enjoys in the current National Assembly. Finally, the Democratic Labor Party (which holds only 9 of 299 seats) is in the midst of an internal feud over the party leadership's decision to abandon its pro-North Korea image. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Already enjoying a honeymoon with Lee Myung-bak's victory, the GNP's support is further boosted by the public's frustration with Roh Moo-hyun and the UNDP's inability to articulate a coherent message. Ongoing GNP bickering could annoy voters, but they have few viable alternatives. The GNP will likely stay together, though feuding will continue as each faction tries to maximize its influence. The UNDP's fate is less certain. It could split after the April elections, but the party's representation in the new National Assembly could be too small to make a split effective. STANTON