AMBASSADOR AND FORMER PRESIDENT KIM DAE-JUNG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002109 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND FORMER PRESIDENT KIM DAE-JUNG DISCUSS NORTH KOREA'S PAST AND FUTURE Classified By: Amb. Kathleen Stephens. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In an October 22 courtesy call by the Ambassador, former President Kim Dae-jung said that she had come to Korea at an important point in the relationship. Relations were good, but there was still much work to be done on North Korea. After recounting his meeting with Kim Jong-il in 2000, Kim praised recent U.S. efforts to engage the North. The former president said he had no doubt that North Korea would ultimately surrender its nuclear weapons after normalizing relations with the United States, offering his signature optimistic view of North Korea's intentions. Kim said the reunification of the two Koreas would only be successful if it came about after economic development and democratization in the North. Conceding that inter-Korean relations were currently strained, Kim criticized President Lee Myung-bak's inconsistency and said it was incumbent upon the U.S. to decisively communicate the importance of improved inter-Korean relations to Pyongyang. End Summary. -------------- Historical Perspective -------------- ¶2. (C) In his October 22 meeting with the Ambassador, former President (1998-2003) Kim Dae-jung, accompanied by his wife Lee Hee-ho, offered his views on North Korea. Kim said that when he met with Kim Jong-il (KJI) in 2000, he urged KJI to mend his relations with the United States, counseling that the U.S. was the only country that could provide a security guarantee and ensure economic stability for North Korea. Kim also told his North Korean counterpart not to "play around" with nuclear weapons and conveyed the likely continued U.S. troop presence on the Korean Peninsula after reunification. KJI concurred, noting that, because other countries in the region had historically threatened Korea, a continued U.S. troop presence made sense. -------------- Way Forward -------------- ¶3. (C) Reminiscing about advice he had given to U.S. Presidents over the years, Kim said that he had long advised the U.S. to engage in direct talks with North Korea. In negotiations with Pyongyang, he said, you have to "give what you can give and take what you can take." Kim said he was proud that his friend A/S Hill had served as Ambassador to Korea and then did a great job with much patience in the Six-Party Talks. ¶4. (C) Kim Dae-jung told the Ambassador that he had no doubt that KJI wanted a better relationship with the U.S. North Korea could become another China or Vietnam, but first Pyongyang had to promise to give up its nuclear weapons. If the U.S. gave what it could, then North Korea could make progress, Kim said. The nuclear issue would ultimately be resolved because it was a win-win outcome. If the U.S. and North Korea remained in conflict, however, neither would benefit. ¶5. (C) Kim was optimistic about the likelihood of eventual reunification, but he criticized observers who advised waiting until North Korea imploded or a third country precipitated a collapse. Refugees would flood into South Korea, he said, and China might try to take control of Pyongyang. If reconciliation took place, however, the North Korean economy could develop -- particularly through raw materials and tourism -- and slowly an intellectual class would emerge. South Korea did have some influence over North Korea; if both sides could live peacefully, North Korea would eventually democratize, which could lead to reunification. But unification through force or absorption was not the solution, he concluded. -------------- Change is Afoot -------------- ¶6. (C) Kim said there were many changes occurring in North Korea. Capitalism had started in the North in the form of open-air markets. When a communist government could no longer provide for the people, it started to lose control. We were already starting to see signs of this, and the U.S. and South Korea should take advantage of these changes to improve the situation. North Koreans' perspectives of the South had changed too, Kim claimed. When South Korea gave aid, the bags of food bore the names of South Korean companies, letting the people of North Korea know that South Korea was not all bad. -------------- "Give What You Can Give" -------------- ¶7. (C) The Ambassador praised President Kim's efforts in bringing North Korea into a more constructive relationship with South Korea and the rest of the world. She expressed concern, however, that the North Korean Government might still mistakenly hope it would eventually be allowed to retain a nuclear capability. Pyongyang would have to meet its Six-Party commitments. Kim responded by again invoking his "give what you can give" aphorism, and said that if the United States would lift economic sanctions and normalize relations with North Korea, Pyongyang would definitely give up its nuclear ambitions. In the long run, the danger to North Korea of a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia made keeping a nuclear capability untenable for the North. ¶8. (C) The Ambassador also said it would be a mistake if North Korea thought it could improve relations with the U.S. without improving relations with South Korea. Kim observed that this was a good point. Inter-Korean relations now were not good but would improve in the long run, he said. President Lee Myung-bak was inconsistent in his comments on North Korea, and Kim hoped this would change over time. To improve inter-Korean relations, Kim opined, the U.S. role was very important. The United States had to decisively convey that inter-Korean relations needed to be strong. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Kim Dae-jung's health is not good. He undergoes dialysis three times a week, making travel or any extended stay outside Seoul very difficult. Still, the Ambassador found Kim in fine form, able to convey his thoughts clearly and cogently. A hero to generations of democracy fighters in Korea and outside, Kim's legacy is secure, despite the deep misgivings about his legacy among conservatives in Korea, including the current incumbent of the Blue House. STEPHENS