GNP IN DISARRAY, LEGISLATIVE PROGRESS UNLIKELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001865 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KS KN SUBJECT: GNP IN DISARRAY, LEGISLATIVE PROGRESS UNLIKELY Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The ruling Grand National Party (GNP) is facing a crisis in party cohesion. Once merely split by two powerful factions -- one led by President Lee Myung-bak (MB) and the other by long-time party leader Park Geun-hye -- the GNP is increasingly plagued by divisions within the pro-MB faction, and recent events in the National Assembly raise serious concerns about the party's efficacy. Even with its overwhelming majority, the party had difficulty passing a necessary supplementary budget and floor leader Hong Joon-pyo narrowly avoided being removed from office a mere two weeks into the regular session. Though for now it seems unlikely that the party will split along these factional divides, the party's difficulty passing uncontroversial bills bodes ill for more contentious legislation. End Summary. -------------- Family Feud, GNP Style -------------- ¶2. (C) Fighting between the Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak factions is old news, but the recent leadership crises in the GNP have highlighted bickering within Lee's camp -- mainly between followers of Lee Jae-o and Lee Sang-deuk. This feud has been simmering since President Lee took office in February. Lee Jae-o supporters feel that they were crucial to Lee Myung-bak's election and then were slighted by not receiving key positions in the new government. Instead, President Lee has favored those close to his older brother, Lee Sang-deuk. ¶3. (C) Meanwhile, Park Geun-hye continues to eschew cooperation with President Lee. Instead of throwing her support behind legislation that both MB and Park support -- like the KORUS FTA -- she is preferring to sit back and watch the MB factions fight among themselves in what Professor Kim Hyung-joon of Myungji University called a perfect example of Korea's "lose-lose" politics. In other words, there is no motivation to change the status quo as long as you are not losing more than your political opponent is. Kim told poloffs that this was the core of the problem with the current GNP leadership. GNP Policy Chair Yim Tae-hee's staffers also told poloff that Park Geun-hye's faction was trying to keep its distance from the MB factional feuding rather than broker an alliance with one faction or the other. -------------- Blame Game -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On September 12, the GNP passed a necessary supplementary budget bill in the Special Committee on Budget and Accounts, but the Democratic Party (DP) argued the procedure should be nullified because of a lack of a quorum in the 50-member special panel (GNP:29; DP:14; Liberty Forward party coalition: 3; Non-negotiating Group:4). The DP had boycotted the committee meeting as had seven of the GNP members -- all Park Geun-hye supporters. The GNP hastily appointed an additional member, but, because of a procedural error, National Assembly Speaker Kim Hyoung-oh refused to send the bill for a vote in the plenary session. The bill was eventually passed on September 17, and the GNP started hearings to determine if the seven GNP lawmakers should be punished. ¶5. (SBU) In the wake of the supplementary budget debacle, GNP Floor Leader Hong Joon-pyo came under attack. Leading the charge for Hong's ouster are the disgruntled Lee Jae-o acolytes, who want to find a way to increase their own influence. Representatives Jin Soo-hee, Kim Yong-woo, Chung Tae-gun, Kwon Taek-gi, and Kim Yong-tae asserted that Hong had ceded too much to the rival DP, and had failed to exploit the party's dominance in the parliament under his lackluster leadership. However, senior party officials, including GNP leader Park Hee-tae, and some Pro-Park members opposed Hong's resignation, saying there are no good alternatives. Probably trying to play down the effect of the pro-Park lawmakers' absence, they attributed the failure to pass the supplementary budget to the DP's boycott. Hong has suggested that he would be willing to step down, but he has not yet made that decision. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The GNP is in trouble. Not only does it have to deal with a cantankerous opponent in the shape of the DP and abysmally low approval ratings for President Lee, it is now having trouble managing power struggles within the party. Though the party is unlikely to split, its ability to pass difficult legislation will be much harder than its comfortable majority suggests. STANTON