LEE MYUNG-BAK'S OLYMPIC MOJO: POLL INCREASES

UNCLAS SEOUL 001710 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KS KN SUBJECT: LEE MYUNG-BAK'S OLYMPIC MOJO: POLL INCREASES LIKELY TEMPORARY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Recent opinion polls conducted by various ROK media agencies show that President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating is recovering, reaching between 24 to 31 percent in various polls taken from August 23. Pundits note that the recent increase was mainly due to Korea's success at the Beijing Olympic Games and the gradual lull of the anti-U.S. beef protests. However, public opinion of President Lee could change rapidly for the worse if his new policies to privatize state-run companies and to reform the real estate market and related tax system are not well received. The policies are purportedly to overcome the stagnation of the Korean economy and to reduce the cost of living. If they fail, however, his Olympic boost could be short-lived as dissatisfaction with Lee is still wide-spread. End Summary. -------------- MB's Baby Bump -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Lee Myung-bak's (MB) approval rate was 74.4 percent on February 4, according to Korean Gallup, before the February 25 inauguration. Since then, his approval rating gradually fall to approximately 50 percent in March -- due to public criticism of his personnel choices -- and then to approximately 30 percent at the end of April because of his decision to resume U.S. beef imports. According to Media Research, his approval rate plummeted to 17.2 percent in early June as a result of the candlelight rallies against U.S. beef imports, and due to the increase of prices of oil and commodities. The approval rate slightly increased to 22.7 percent in July according to the Korean Society Opinion Research Institution, but MB's public rating has faced multiple obstacles such as the perceived mishandling of a shooting death of a tourist at Mount Kumgang resort in North Korea and Japan's renewed public claims on the Liancourt Rocks (Dokdo/Takeshima). ¶3. (SBU) Specifically, Hangil Research carried out a survey on the President's diplomatic policies toward Japan and the U.S. on 19-20 July. According to the survey, approximately 72 percent of those polled responded negatively to President Lee's attitude and policies on Japan compared to only 15.4 percent who responded positively. Also, approximately 67 percent responded negatively to President Lee's diplomatic policies on the U.S. while 23.9 percent answered positively. ¶4. (SBU) According to recent media reports and opinion polls, President Lee Myung-bak's popularity is recovering. Korea Gallup said President Lee's approval rate reached 24.1 percent, up 3.4 percentage points from the previous survey on June 28. The survey of 1,005 adults was conducted on August ¶23. Also, according to Korean Research, Lee's approval rate reached 31.2 percent, up 4.3 percentage points from the previous survey on July 14. The survey of 1,000 adults was also conducted on August 23. In the same vein, the ruling Grand National Party's (GNP) approval rating increased from 29.8 percent in June to 38.2 percent in August while that for DP plunged from 18.3 percent to 16.5 percent over the same period of time, according to Korean Gallup. Korean Research also said the approval rating for the GNP rose from 30 percent to 35.1 percent. -------------- Gold Medal Glow -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Most pundits attribute the recovering approval rate to Korea's better-than-expected performance in the Beijing Olympic Games and the gradual settlement of the beef row. The Olympics, in particular, moved public attention from economic difficulties and thorny issues like the bribery scandal involving the first lady's sister. GNP and Blue House sources cited in the press pointed out that the President has been regaining popularity since the disputes over U.S. beef imports, public appointments and Japan's claim to the Liancourt Rocks have mellowed. Thanks to this and the normalization of the National Assembly, the government is now pursuing economic reforms more aggressively. On the other hand, multiple sources argue that the recovering approval rate is merely due to "return of tame rabbits," meaning that the return of MB's traditional support base does not spell an end to criticism. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The uptick in support is a move in the right direction. Lee's recently renewed support, however, might not last for several reasons. First, the appointment of heads of state-run companies and research institutions as well as broadcaster KBS is likely to rekindle political and social anger. Second, the stagnant economy and rising prices of commodities are burdens for all Koreans and the "economic" President Lee, right or wrong, gets blamed for not easing this pain. Even though his staff claim that the president's commitment to economic reform will enhance his ratings, the array of policies regarding the real estate market, the public sector, the tax system, plus energy and financial industries are also controversial and many claim they are either wrong-headed, only help the wealthy, or worse, both. VERSHBOW