MT. KUMGANG: HYUNDAI ASAN WAITING ON ROKG TO TAKE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001663 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KS KN SUBJECT: MT. KUMGANG: HYUNDAI ASAN WAITING ON ROKG TO TAKE INITIATIVE REF: SEOUL 01581 Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Yun. Reasons 1.4(b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Hyundai Asan Senior Vice President Jang Whan-bin told poloff August 13 that only the ROKG could resolve the stalemate with the DPRK over the Mt. Kumgang shooting incident. He does not believe financial incentives will compel the North Koreans to negotiate, saying the matter had become personal at senior levels of the DPRK. Jang scoffed at the idea that Hyundai Asan could play a mediating role (reftel) and was doubtful the DPRK would accept negotiating through the Red Cross. Critiquing the Lee administration's DPRK policy, Jang said Lee has yet to learn that the only way to get along with North Korea is to give without expecting anything in return. Jang believes the shooting likely occurred because the victim slipped undetected by the resort security personnel, who often deal with stray visitors, and encountered maritime security personnel on guard for defecting North Koreans. According to Jang, Hyundai Asan's Kaesong tours continue unaffected by the Mt. Kumgang incident. Of the approximately 500 Hyundai Asan employees remaining at Mt. Kumgang, only twenty-six are South Koreans and the remainder are ethnic Korean Chinese citizens. End Summary. -------------- Hyundai Asan: ROKG Must Make First Move -------------- ¶2. (C) In an August 13 meeting, Hyundai Asan Senior Vice President Jang Whan-bin told poloff the ROKG would have to take the initiative in breaking the deadlock with the DPRK over resolving the Mt. Kumgang shooting incident and asked if the USG could help find a solution. (Hyundai Asan is the South Korean company responsible for developing the Mt. Kumgang resort and operating tours from South Korea.) Jang dismissed the suggestion that Hyundai Asan could play a mediating role to resolve the issue, an idea voiced privately by some ROKG officials (reftel),because, he said, the matter had become too serious and had been elevated to senior levels of the DPRK. ¶3. (C) Jang added that Hyundai Asan would cooperate fully with any agreement the ROK made with the DPRK. Hyundai Asan was prepared to publicly apologize for allowing the incident to happen and would compensate the DPRK for its lost revenues. But, he added, these were terms the ROKG would have to discuss directly with the DPRK. -------------- Incident Touched a Nerve in Pyongyang -------------- ¶4. (C) In the past, Hyundai Asan has been successful in negotiating certain issues without the assistance of the ROKG, but this case is different, Jang said. DPRK contacts who have been helpful in the past are telling Hyundai Asan counterparts that they have been instructed to refer matters relating to the shooting incident to senior personnel in Pyongyang. ¶5. (C) Jang does not believe that the lost revenue from Mt. Kumgang tours will compel the DPRK to open negotiations on the ROK's terms. He said the matter had become personal to DPRK senior leadership and that short of the ROK absolving the DPRK of responsibility he did not see a face-saving way out for the DPRK. According to Jang, Hyundai Asan was grossing 10 million U.S. dollars per month in Mt. Kumgang, of which 1 million U.S. dollars went to the DPRK as royalty payment. (Note: It is widely believed that the DPRK realizes an additional 2 million U.S. dollars per month in revenue from the operation.) ¶6. (C) On the possibility that the Red Cross could play a mediating role, Jang was skeptical. Because the ROK and DPRK Red Cross organizations are semi-governmental organizations, the DPRK would refuse to have anything less than government-to-government talks on the matter. The ROK, he repeated, would have to initiate the talks. -------------- -- Hyundai Asan Disappointed in Lee Administration -------------- -- ¶7. (C) Jang was highly critical of the Lee administration's handling of North Korean policy. He said the Lee administration has yet to learn that the only way to deal with North Korea is to give without expecting anything in return. Looking at President Lee's cabinet, he said it lacked a single member with any direct experience dealing with North Korea. ¶8. (C) Asked what advantage the Lee administration would see in negotiating with the DPRK without expecting anything in return, Jang said the benefits were intangible but important. He cited his experience in Mt. Kumgang as an example. Ten years ago, he said, the North Koreans working at Mt. Kumgang did not even know what money was; now they have a concept not only of money but a market economy. This kind of development, Jang said, is in the ROK's long-term interest and the most to be hoped for given the current state of relations. -------------- Theories on the Shooting -------------- ¶9. (C) Jang said the most likely explanation for the shooting is that the victim managed to pass undetected by resort security personnel and encountered maritime security personnel who either did not know how to respond or thought the victim was a North Korean citizen attempting to defect by sea. There have been numerous incidents, Jang said, of South Korean tourists wandering beyond the boundaries of the resort and the security personnel assigned to the resort were accustomed to dealing with such situations. Sometimes the guards would scold or humiliate the stray tourist but in all cases would call Hyundai Asan personnel to come pick up the tourist. -------------- Kaesong Tours Unaffected, to Date -------------- ¶10. (C) Jang said the Mt. Kumgang incident had not affected its tour operation in Kaesong, except that the ROKG had required a review and strengthening of security procedures. ¶11. (C) Jang said Hyundai Asan had withdrawn all but approximately 500 of the 1,300 workers from the Mt. Kumgang cite. Of the 500, twenty-six are South Korean citizens and the remainder are ethnic Koreans with Chinese citizenship. Jang and senior level Hyundai Asan personnel are still free to travel to Mt. Kumgang. ¶12. (C) Comment: Jang may believe that money will not motivate the DPRK to negotiate a settlement to resume tour operations, but Hyundai Asan certainly has a financial interest in re-starting tours as soon as possible. For a corporation that had become accustomed to an ROKG give-without-expecting-anything-in-return policy toward the North and DPRK contacts who were ready to do business, Jang was clearly frustrated at Hyundai Asan's inability to move this issue. For now at least, both the ROKG and the DPRK have included resolution of the Mt. Kumgang incident in the test of wills between the North and the South over the Lee administration's effort to include reciprocity in the terms of North-South engagement. Jang, caught in the middle, is hoping that the South will blink and fold; meanwhile, he is losing money, hence his frustration. ¶13. (C) Comment Continued: If history is any guide, this incident too will soon be glossed over and both sides will move on. In fact, last week, Pyongyang was uncharacteristically lenient in its response to the August 12 collision between a North Korean fishing boat and a South Korean transport boat that resulted in two North Korean fishermen dying. This was Pyongyang's way of saying sorry on Kumgang, according to several North Korea watchers here. If that was the case, the message was heard in Seoul, because the ROK Ministry of Unification responded officially that it did not want the incident to continue to aggravate inter-Korean relations. Perhaps, Mr. Jang won't have to wait as long as he thinks for his project to "normalize". VERSHBOW