BOSNIA: KOMSIC ON POLITICAL CLIMATE AND CHOD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000479 SIPDIS SIPDIS EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE (HOH, FOOKS, STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR BEIN; OSD FOR BEIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MARR BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: KOMSIC ON POLITICAL CLIMATE AND CHOD MANDATE REF: A. SARAJEVO 414 ¶B. 07 SARAJEVO 2295 ¶C. SARAJEVO 455 Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES ENGLISH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) Summary -------------- ¶1. The Ambassador met on March 10 with Zeljko Komsic, the Croat member of the Presidency, to discuss the current political climate. The Ambassador also stressed that the CHOD, General Sifet Podzic, should step down in July as mandated by the Law on Defense. Komsic, who has close ties to the military, said that political tensions in Bosnia have resulted in widespread talk of a return to war. He noted, however, that there are no concrete preparations for armed conflict underway. Komsic complained about the unwillingness of European countries to acknowledge the seriousness of events in Belgrade and Banja Luka. He assured the Ambassador that General Podzic would step down on July 20 as required by law. He raised concerns that it would be difficult to find a qualified successor and follow-on position for General Podzic. Komsic discounted rumors that his Social Democratic Party (SDP) would try to become part of a new Federation government if the current coalition between the Party for Democratic Action (SDA) and the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) splits. End Summary. Renewed Talk of War -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met on March 10 with Zeljko Komsic, Croat member of the Presidency, to discuss the current political climate and political-military issues. In a general discussion of political developments in Bosnia, Komsic, who has close ties to the military, said that the increase in nationalism and ethnic tensions has resulted in widespread talk of a resumption of war in Bosnia. He added, however, that there are no concrete preparations for an armed conflict underway. He noted that defense reform had eliminated RS and Federation military capabilities and as a result, the entities do not have organized structures under which to begin preparations for conflict. However, Komsic also pointed out that, during the crisis surrounding the High Representative's October 19 measures, Republika Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik had organized a meeting with high-ranking Serb military officers to which General Podzic was not invited (Ref B). Komsic commented that many Bosnians harboring wartime grievances have stockpiled weapons in the event of a return to conflict and some, particularly in Eastern Republika Srspka, are "looking forward to war." Komsic stated emphatically that secession attempts by the Republika Srpska would result in war. CHOD Transition -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador underscored to Komsic that the CHOD transition process should take place by July 20 in a transparent manner consistent with the Law on Defense. The Ambassador noted the USG had great respect for Podzic who had been critical to the success of defense reform, but made clear that his mandate should end in accordance with the law. The Ambassador stated that U.S. does not agree with alternative interpretations of the law that suggest Podzic could remain in his position past July 20, noting that integrity of the armed forces rests on adherence to the rule of law. The Ambassador emphasized the importance of ethnic rotation in the top military leadership slot and expressed hope that the government would chose an apolitical successor. Komsic agreed that General Podzic must step down upon the expiration of his mandate and foresaw no problems. However, he characterized General Podzic,s departure as a delicate matter, particularly finding a suitable position for Podzic. He suggested that President Haris Silajdzic could nominate Podzic to an ambassadorial position. Komsic predicted that finding a non-Bosniak successor for Podzic will be difficult. Dodik and Silajdzic -------------- SARAJEVO 00000479 002 OF 002 ¶4. (C) Komsic expressed concerns about the ultimate goals of Milorad Dodik and complained that Europeans are unwilling to acknowledge the danger he represents, citing posters of Vladimir Putin carried by demonstrators in Banja Luka. The Ambassador replied that Haris Silajdzic will likely use his Presidency Chairmanship to continue his confrontational approach with Dodik. Komsic agreed, noting that on the first day of his Chairmanship, Silajdzic called on the UN to revisit the February 26 International Court of Justice (ICJ) verdict and for the government to authorize the State Ministry of Justice to look into housing the archives of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in Bosnia (Ref C). Komsic believed Silajdzic was motivated by his declining popularity among Bosniaks and is seeking to renew his nationalist credentials among his electorate. The Ambassador urged Komsic do his best to discourage Silajdzic's nationalism. Coalition Issues -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked Komsic to comment on rumors of a rift in the governing coalition between the Party for Democratic Action (SDA) and the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH). Komsic said that his party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP),maintained good relations with SDA President Sulejman Tihic and other elements in that party. However, SDP intends to remain in opposition and will not participate in a restructuring of the government. Komsic said a new government would not result in meaningful change in Bosnia given Dodik's unassailable mandate in the RS and corruption in SBiH. SDP leadership would revisit the issue, he said, if Dodik and Silajdzic lose significant political support. ENGLISH